Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026

    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0505-mau

    Posted by EconomistWithaD

    1 Comment

    1. EconomistWithaD on

      The Good: inflation from the tariffs (passed all to consumers) is slowing, after peaking in February 2026. It added 1 pp to inflation in February, and 0.8 pp in March. I’ve seen estimates that put it around 0.5 pp in April.

      So, this does ease some inflation pressures.

      The Bad: tariff inflation is easing, but they decided to impose an even bigger CPI shock on us. Yay.

      The Worse: given that a second tariff imposition has been deemed to be invalid (uniform 10%), it’s likely we see another attempt to impose them again, which would lead to more inflation again in the future, rather than if they had just stayed in place.

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