nvidia is worth $5.5 trillion nd now worth more than every country except the us and china. it was $400 billion three years ago
anthropic raised 40 billion from google and 25 billion from amazon in the same week, revenue went from 1 billion to $30 billion in fifteen months and secondary market says a trillion dollars
openai dropped gpt 5.5, reportedly doing similar revenue,spacex offered $60 billion for cursor, a code editor worth $2.5 billion eighteen months ago
125 billion in ai investment committed in a single weekis f insane. the entire global vc market did $300 billion in all of 2024
the bull case is the revenue is real,nvidia did 216 billion dollar. anthropic is doing $30 billion. Millions of people use these tools daily, every chatgpt prompt every video generated through kling or magic hour, every ai powered sales sequence anddd every line of code through cursor burns real compute and generates real money
the bear case being cisco was worth $555 billion in 2000 because the internet was obviously the future. while the internet was obviously the future but cisco still lost 80%. Being right about the technology doesn't mean the valuations are right
both cases feel equally convincing to me and that's what's scary
is anyone here actually confident they know whether this is 1999 or 2004?
Are we in an ai bubble because these numbers have stopped making sense
byu/Jealous-Drawer8972 inwallstreetbets
Posted by Jealous-Drawer8972
22 Comments
Yes we are but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a few long term winners.
This happened during the EV bubble too.
Bad news? “Already priced in”
Mega caps spending spree? “Totally not priced in after 800% gains. Definetly more room to grow, at least 100%”
Every time I see a post with the words AI and bubble U drink one shoot, may be it’s not good doing while driving but who cares.
You have to be regarded to compare market cap to GDP
The difference from 1999 is the revenue is real this time,Cisco was priced on future internet traffic and Nvidia already shipped the chips and got paid
Its trendy and cool now to call everything a bubble 😂. The smart people look at earnings
Yes, yes we are
there is no formula for the price of a stock
it depends how much the next person is willing to pay for it
as long as people are willing to pay for it, it will go up
Just wait till everyone actually FOMO’s then they’ll be bagholding for decades
The Cisco analogy is the right one. Nobody lost money being wrong about the internet. They lost money overpaying for it.
The difference this time — the revenue is real and it arrived fast. Cisco was priced for a future that took 15 years. Nvidia’s $216B revenue isn’t a promise.
But $5.5 trillion means you need to believe the next 10 years are already won. That’s where it gets uncomfortable.
Nobody knows if it’s 1999 or 2004. Anyone who tells you they do is selling something.
it’s gonna pop, sell
and bubble only go up right?
AI Bubble and a RAM goldrush
Depends…I subscribe to 2 and likely ditching openai (they gave me crazy offer after I try cancel and for 3months I forgot price of one?). Claude is just so much better for my purposes and gpt is getting stupid every time it updates…3.0 was godly except it spit a bunch of nonsense but still better than current version but current version formats stuff better.
Anyways 20$ a month with almost no cost but hiring talent. I know most people still use free versions instead of basic premium but I would have to imagine some are like me that has 2 subscriptions. So about ~ 1.5b people are in first world countries and let’s say 50 percent are subscribed that’s about 3b per month…yea the numbers don’t make sense. I would have to assume enterprise cost are alot more…I heard some people use API tokens and it cost them 100k plus commercially..I am not sure how that math would look like but 30b per year makes sense and a cieling of 60b per year with a margin of at least 80%. Yea these valuations are too crazy.
Bro nuclear armaggedon has already been priced in, the only way is up
Just to clarify something, GDP is what a country produces, not what it’s “worth”. If you start looking at the assets in countries you will see its multitudes higher in “worth”/market cap than GDP. In my country, pension assets alone are 3x GDP, and real estate etc. is higher still.
Just buy calls bruh, win or lose, just buy calls!
https://preview.redd.it/suuiyz8e021h1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7fd8d431506d38ffb21eeda25c8e686b2ee9c6b5
Cisco is back and way higher than the previous bubble high. Welcome to bubble v2, bigger and badder!
US/China just cleared Nvidia to sell chips to ten of the largest Chinese tech firms. Nvidia about to pump to $250 and hit 6t market cap by end of May 💀
The problem with the bubble theory is with almost all these companies they are triple beating (revenue,eps,raise guidance). They are all breaking records. Asml is shipping almost double EUV machines in 2026 as 2025. That’s a huge investment for companies.
If nasd plunges 30% it would still be above tariff levels and I doubt the dip buyers and algos wouldn’t bring that shit back up to ath in a matter of weeks.
According to Michael burry we are, and its about to burst.