Feel free to scroll past the less important background information until you get to "WHY VENTURE GLOBAL IS THE PLAY." TL;DR at end.
Hello retards,
Everyone knows that the Strait of Whore-moose 💁♀️🫎 remains closed. But oil futures have been fairly muted lately considering the size of the disruption (Thanks, Axios!), which has led the market to move on and overlook certain names in the energy sector as huge beneficiaries of recent developments. The market doesn't seem to realize that the Strait staying closed is much, much worse than any quibbling between the US and Iran. Physical crude is still very expensive–it has averaged a spread as high as $38 above futures price over the past couple weeks (and in some third-world countries, there have been reports of oil selling for $200 a barrel!). This will only get worse as countries burn through their reserves and have to start buying more at elevated prices. Here are some fun visuals that help illustrate the outsized impact of this supply disruption.
In some stocks, namely US oil producers, this situation has already been effectively priced in. BP recently announced that their quarterly profits more than doubled compared to Q1 2025, and yet the stock was unmoved. But this does not mean that there are not GREAT opportunities ripe for the taking. Let me explain:
ASIA
Asia is having a very rough time right now, as they normally get the majority of their oil from Gulf states.
China has big oil stockpiles, but every other country is nearing or already having supply shocks. And the thing about Asia is that they are big buyers of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, they normally have most of their LNG imported from the Persian Gulf, which isn't possible right now. Here's some excerpts from an article that support this fact:
As a result, they have to look elsewhere to satisfy their energy needs. In this case, "elsewhere" is the world's largest LNG exporter–the US.
LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS
I believe that the US LNG sector is a HUGE 🫲🫱 winner that has somehow gone under the radar. But first, let me try and explain the LNG business model:
In other words, RIGHT NOW is an extremely profitable time for US LNG companies. They get cheap feedgas domestically, convert it to LNG, and then ship it to places like Asia that desperately need natural gas (with the Gulf states being unable to export anything) and don't have access through pipelines. To be more specific, profit depends on three things.
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Spread between domestic feedgas price and price of natural gas in foreign countries
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Liquefaction fee
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Cost of transportation (longer distance = higher cost)
With Asia being forced to buy LNG from US exporters as long as the Strait 💁♀️🫎 is closed, these companies are raking in money.
IS 🥭 DOING THIS ON PURPOSE?
Here's a graph that shows how much more dependent the rest of the world has become on US Oil/LNG since before the start of the Middle East conflict. It makes sense–with Gulf states out of commission, the main options are the US/North Sea/Russia, and WTI is cheaper than Brent by about $5-10/barrel.
I'm starting to genuinely believe that 🥭 wants the Strait to stay closed for a while longer, at least to try and make countries think twice about buying so much from Gulf states (energy security, blah blah blah). With this Iran conflict, he's able to completely block Asian countries from buying oil from the Persian Gulf for however long he wants. I mean, he has a fucking naval blockade waiting just outside the Strait. Doesn't seem like something you'd do if you wanted things to return back to normal. As a result, Asian countries come running to the US for their energy needs– they don't really have any other choice. I guess his angle is that he's helping the US fossil fuel industry (that donated to his campaign) make lots of money. Who cares about 6% YoY PPI, anyway?
WHAT ABOUT THE LONG-TERM?
So far, I've laid out the case for US LNG companies making a ton of money as a result of the Iran conflict. But this isn't just a short-term play. Future LNG demand is expected to quickly outpace supply in the coming years–and because infrastructure is so expensive and takes so long to come online, this is not a supply shortage that can be fixed overnight. So, companies who are currently investing in additional LNG infrastructure will be paid out many times over in the coming years.
WHY VENTURE GLOBAL IS THE PLAY
There are three relevant pure-play LNG stocks in the US. $LNG, $NEXT, and $VG.
$LNG: Mature company, not focused on aggressively expanding their production capacity over next couple years. Your stereotypical boring fossil fuel company.
$NEXT: Small company, no existing production, will start making money in H1 2027. They also have shitty payout structures where they get like 20-40% of the LNG terminal revenue for the first few years of operation. Basically, it's a way for their joint venture partners to quickly get their investments back (because as I said earlier, the infrastructure is very very expensive). Not ideal for shareholders.
$VG: The clear choice, in my opinion. They have plenty of existing production AND are aggressively expanding to prepare for sustained increases in demand in the future. But don't just take my word for it–look at what Rupert Murdoch's rag has to say:
I'm providing some visuals from their most recent investor presentation. For reference, an LNG cargo sells for anywhere from $20M to $100M depending on supply and demand, and 1 MTPA ≈ 14-18 cargos. Key thing to take away is how fast they are going to be growing over the next couple years.
Look at this recent growth… Absolutely insane. The market has not priced this in, somehow.
Here's my favorite chart of the entire post:
As you can see, VG is expected to soon have the second-largest share of LNG capacity in the entire world, behind QatarEnergy. Unfortunately, QatarEnergy recently got hit with a double whammy–courtesy of Iran. Not only are they currently unable to export anything due to the Strait being closed, but they also endured a drone attack which kneecapped their capacity by 17% (this is not reflected in above chart). So even when the Strait eventually opens back up, they aren't going to be able to satisfy as much demand. More business for US LNG.
Another great thing about LNG companies is that they sign multi-decade contracts with customers, so their revenue always has a stable floor. The prices still fluctuate based on demand/feedgas price/shipping/etc, but these contracts provide some insulation to price spikes and supply shocks. The customers want energy security, and the LNG companies want guaranteed revenue. For VG, around 70% of their production is tied up in long-term agreements with the remaining 30% available to sell on the spot market to the highest bidder.
(Ironically enough, VG recently got in trouble with some Europoor customers because they decided to reroute some shipments to sell on the lucrative spot market during the Israel-Iran fiasco last summer. They've been settling those disagreements in arbitration, and the stock has rebounded from its recent lows as a result of that incident being in the rearview mirror.)
Another advantage VG has over both foreign and domestic competitors is that they are able to use the cheapest feedgas possible (lowering operational costs = higher profit margin). They buy their natural gas from the Permian Basin, which is notorious for high nitrogen content. Because nitrogen is a non-combustible gas, it's presence lowers the amount of energy that can be produced from a given volume of natural gas. However, VG has large-scale nitrogen removal infrastructure that allow them to remove all of this nitrogen at a very low cost. Thus, they are able to spend significantly less on feedgas than other LNG exporters.
THE 🥭 ADMINISTRATION IS ACTIVELY HELPING $VG MAKE DEALS
https://x.com/USAmbassadorGR/status/2049075907214680469?s=20 4/28/26, announcement of a long-term supply agreement between Venture Global and Albania, brokered by the US.
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1943085458445209771?s=20 (RIP) 7/9/25, Venture Global becomes Germany's largest LNG supplier after 🥭 pushed for it.
Not sure what kind of corruption might be going on to make it happen, but it seems like VG and the administration have a very nice relationship. Another tailwind.
AN ANALOGY
A crackhead hears that his plug got arrested. He chooses to ignore this concerning development, as he still has plenty of supply left over. However, he quickly burns through his reserves and suddenly realizes he has a big problem. He can't live without this resource, and yet his normal procurement method has been disrupted! He drives a couple towns over and finds a new source. But the problem is that it costs more and he can't buy as much as he would normally want!
This new distributor offers him an attractive proposition: instead of having to compete with other buyers for crack, he can have methamphetamine delivered to him on a regular basis! As much as he wants, too–no more worrying about how much product may or may not be available. He has to make a long-term commitment to purchase the methamphetamine, but he's completely okay with that as he needs stimulants to function. He gets a steady stream of product; the distributor gets a steady stream of revenue. Both sides walk away happy.
This is a simplified version of what countries in Asia (and Europe to a lesser extent) are currently going through. They are realizing the dangers of importing all their energy from the same supplier or place (Gulf states). This is related to something called energy security (which I've referred to numerous times already), and it has three main aspects:
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Availability
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Reliability
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Affordability
Moving away from oil and toward LNG allows countries to diversify energy portfolios (not importing all their energy from the same place/supplier), ensure consistent access to energy supply, and cap costs in volatile times.
While crude oil has use cases that natural gas cannot replace, there are plenty of uses which it can satisfy–and countries/companies are actively innovating to circumvent LNG's shortcomings so it can play an even more significant role in their future energy portfolios. Because of these factors, global demand for LNG is expected to increase by over 50% by 2040. We might not even be in the first inning of the LNG supercycle.
This is also the big reason why QatarEnergy and other Middle East LNG exporters will lose business to US LNG companies after the Strait opens back up. Countries want energy security, and there is nothing secure or safe about the Middle East. Now that there are significant long-term concerns about the Strait's potential to close again in the future (if it happened once, it can happen again), countries will run to US LNG companies with open arms. This will make future long-term strategic purchase agreements EVEN MORE LUCRATIVE for US exporters. Countries will get into bidding wars with each other to ensure that they can lock down a reliable and affordable stream of LNG for decades.
LET'S TALK ABOUT NUMBERS
People think of fossil fuel companies and get the mental image of boring slow/no-growth enterprises that have poor future prospects and pay fat dividends to compensate risk-averse shareholders. This is not the case for LNG exporters, and certainly not the case for VG. Here's some amazing YoY growth from their Q4 2025 ER–before the Iran conflict!
For Q1 2026:
- Generated revenue of $4.6 billion, an increase of 59% from Q1 2025
- Net income of $488 million, an increase of 23% from Q1 2025
- Exported 130 cargos and sold 481 TBtu of liquefied natural gas, a new quarterly record for Venture Global, and an increase of 67 cargos and 253 TBtu sold, or 111%, from Q1 2025
- Reached total assets of $56.3 billion, an increase of $11.2 billion from $45.1 billion as of March 31, 2025.
- Executed a new, binding agreement for TotalEnergies to purchase approximately 0.85 MTPA of LNG for approximately five years commencing in 2026.
And yet, all of that was completely overshadowed by their guidance: Raising their FY 2026 earnings outlook by ~$3B (over a 50% increase!) Again–that's earnings, not revenue.
That being said, here's a relevant piece of information from VG's ER earlier this week:
Q: Why aren't global gas prices higher given the current disruptions, and what are you hearing from customers?
A: The market is complex, with different storage levels and regulatory restrictions affecting purchasing decisions. Many customers are hesitant to make purchases due to uncertainty, but low storage levels will eventually necessitate buying, which should uplift prices.
After a blowout quarter, VG's management is openly saying that they expect prices to go EVEN HIGHER. Keep in mind, the Strait was only closed for the last 1/3 of Q1. We are already halfway through Q2 and the Strait has been closed the entire time–the longer that the status quo prevails, the more and more money that VG will bring in.
Earlier, I mentioned Cheniere ($LNG). It's the only other relevant pure-play LNG exporter in the US, so it is the easiest comparison to illustrate how undervalued VG currently is.
Cheniere has a market cap of $50B. They reported their Q1 2026 earnings a week ago, and guided for ~$7.5B in FY 2026 earnings.
Venture Global has a market cap of $32B. They guided for ~$8.3B in FY 2026 earnings. Wait, what?
- VG is expecting to make almost $1B in profit more in FY 2026 than Cheniere–despite having a market cap under 2/3 the size
- VG is going to grow production capacity by over 100% over the next 4-5 years, while Cheniere is targeting 50% production growth over that timeframe
- The only thing going against VG is that they have $10B more in debt than Cheniere–but that's the price you have to pay for aggressive growth in this industry.
Given Cheniere's valuation, and VG's trailing PE ratio of 12, the stock should already be at least $20 in my opinion (over a 60% increase from current SP of $13).
VG made a local high of $17.50 on March 27th–over 1.5 months ago. If you remember, March 27th was the day before the ceasefire was announced. EVEN THOUGH THE STRAIT HAS BEEN CLOSED THIS ENTIRE TIME, VG dropped as the broader market rallied. This is now ridiculously mispriced, especially after the Q1 ER + guidance blew analyst estimates out of the water. In my opinion, this would still be undervalued at $13/share if the Iran conflict didn't even happen. But it did happen, and the following consequences are largely being ignored:
- 20% of global LNG supply has been offline for 2.5 months
- Iranian missile strikes knocked out >5% of global LNG supply for the next 5 years
- Countries/customers have barely begun buying at elevated prices, but impending low storage levels will FORCE them to start buying en masse, regardless of price
- Long-term worries about the Strait (future closures, Iranian tolls, etc) will cause customers to widely prefer LNG from US exporters long after it opens up and things go "back to normal"
Because of how grossly mispriced VG is right now, my position is comprised of 6/18 $17.5 calls. Fairly straightforward rationale: Over the next month, investors will digest their Q1 ER and the Strait will stay closed. If this happens, the stock will start to rally and make a new high above $17.5. My target price is $20, it could (and should) go even higher. For EOY 2026, I expect $VG to be $30/share minimum, with a base case of $35 (would be a 170% return from current levels).
Venture Global's aggressive growth strategy in a market where demand is outpacing supply WILL BE REWARDED BY THE MARKET in the future. They are a critical strategic resource supplier for half the freaking world, and they have a PE ratio of 12 with a <8 forward PE. It's one of the easiest no-brainers you will ever have in the stock market. And yet, this is a story that is just beginning to unfold–it has simply been fast-tracked by Iran's antics.
THE CONDENSED BULL CASE FOR $VG
- Closure of the Strait 💁♀️🫎 is creating an energy supply crisis that will reverberate long after it opens back up–and my hunch is that the grand reopening is still far away
- US LNG will become widely preferred over LNG exported by Gulf states due to concerns with the Strait's future reliability
- The world is moving away from oil, towards LNG. Widely accepted that there will be a global supply shortage starting in 2030. And the Iran conflict might cause that supply shortage to actually start this year.
- $VG will soon become the SECOND-LARGEST LNG EXPORTER IN THE ENTIRE WORLD AND THE LARGEST IN THE US in the next couple years
- $VG is dirt cheap with a PE ratio of 12, FW PE of 8, smaller multiples than inferior industry peers
TL;DR:
LNG demand will outpace supply in the coming years. The Iran conflict is expediting/exacerbating this situation by cutting off LNG supply from Persian Gulf exporters like QatarEnergy. This means that Asia (and Europe) needs to procure LNG elsewhere, currently but also after the Strait reopens (energy security). As a result, the US LNG industry is an overlooked but huge beneficiary of the Iran conflict. $VG is the best pure-play company in this industry. It is incredibly undervalued considering its current/future growth, a nonsensical dirt-cheap valuation, and its place as a critical strategic resource supplier for half the world. I see VG going up significantly in both the short-term and the long-term.
Position:
Not financial advice.
VENTURE GLOBAL ($VG): THE EASIEST ENERGY PLAY OF 2026?
byu/JafarFromAfar2 inwallstreetbets
Posted by JafarFromAfar2
12 Comments
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Lets go in all in!
why 2026 tho feels oddyl specific
https://preview.redd.it/wmwjfh1f831h1.jpeg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=57e8d0bfa608e0e38f486e7ac61c40d730388e60
Big post i buy
Isn’t the problem the lack of LNG transport ships? Also that they lose like 50% of the cargo in transit?
It’s amazing for swing trading and for weekly option scalps if you’re down to hold. I have been for a bit. Business seems great.
IMO it’s kinda nutty this didn’t pop like crazy on Tuesday, given the raise in earnings.
Something else to consider is Sabel mentioned that natgas prices haven’t risen considerably since the conflict. He basically said everyone is waiting for conflict to end, but no matter what, European tanks are at a historic low and will need refilling. Regardless of Hormuz situation, the eventual scramble to fill will lead to rising prices, and this is ignoring that Qatar’s facilities are damaged and 20% of capacity is out of play for foreseeable future. And that’s if they can even get the other 80% to their customers.
This is either the best DD I’ve read this year or the most elaborate way someone has ever convinced me to lose money. Either way I’m in.
Go team Venture! _/¯^(v)¯_
Ive been in since last November when a family friend told me about VG at Thanksgiving. This guy has had some pretty keen value plays before so I picked up some. The company is good value but with some operational and debt risk that you should look at before buying.
pretty graphs 👍