Disclaimer: I consider Rocket Lab to be a long-term, fundamental holding for my portfolio. Although my initial position was small, it will be something that I continue to add to when market sentiment causes dips. I am not providing investment advice and solely sharing my personal opinions on a company that I own.
Discussion & Thoughts: With the SpaceX IPO on the horizon, I wanted to share some of my thoughts on Rocket Lab as an investment. As someone who was watching the initial liftoff in the commercial space economy (ASTS, PL, MDA, etc.), I always viewed Rocket Lab as a winner. For starters, Peter Beck is exactly what I look for in a founder and CEO. Curiosity, detail-oriented, absence of ego, consistent presence. In an industry where you have to get everything right, Peter Beck has seemingly cracked the code of consistently (If you haven't watched Wild Wild Space, I highly encourage you to do so). Supporting Peter Beck is Adam Spice as CFO, someone I have spoken to on more than one occasion and come away impressed. Level-headed, goal-oriented, pragmatic.
In addition to quality leadership and management, Rocket Lab has seemingly cornered the small payload launch vehicle market. Electron has been shockingly consistent and the rollout of Neutron will allow RKLB to garner end-customers with higher payload requirements (think Falcon-9). While Neutron development has taken longer than initially anticipated, I think that the attention to detail that RKLB requires will ensure that when it is available, it is completely ready to go. Neutron will allow them to service almost all customers in the commercial launch space regardless of payload capacity (minus maybe ASTS).
RKLB also has satellite and satellite component manufacturing capacity. Through strategic acquisitions, management has acquired valuable assets for pennies on the dollar. Whether it is manufacturing NASA satellites or working with companies like Varda, RKLB can play at every point in the Space economy. In other words, they seem to be a truly end-to-end company.
In terms of valuation, it has certainly risen to new highs. However, when you consider that SpaceX is looking at 1.75T and assume conservatively that launch is roughly 25-30% of this value, RKLB still looks like a bargain. Do they still need to be profitable? Yes. Do I think they can do it? Yes.
RKLB Long Position and Discussion
byu/manhattan-ice inwallstreetbets
Posted by manhattan-ice
15 Comments
bullish on space stonks
It will be a trillion company because i don’t own it, but if i touch this stock it will go to zero
Space and batteries are the future.
I’d buy this just as a fuck you to Enron.
The calls are making me bank🤑
I didn’t like that space sector sell off on Friday with the news that SpaceX is going to ipo sooner
My port is 81% RKLB. I’ve been in since the IPO and am a perma bull. I’m not selling until I can comfortably retire by selling half.
https://www.reuters.com/world/spacex-accelerates-ipo-timeline-targets-june-11-pricing-nasdaq-2026-05-15/
Rocket Lab may well be a trillion-dollar company one day, but its current valuation is just bananas. SpaceX hit ~70B in 2021, after **10 years** of ramping Falcon 9’s launch cadence and mastering reuse and going 5 years with zero mistakes. In that year, it launched ~29 reused Falcon 9s. It had zero competition.
Rocket Lab has 10 years of work between it and the position at which SpaceX was worth 70B… and it’s already worth 70B! It will have to compete with (at least) Blue Origin, and a SpaceX which will, by then, have had 10 years of tinkering with its next-gen offering (Starship)… which will put Rocket Lab in basically the same position it was in when Electron was competing against Falcon 9.
I’m long Rocket Lab. I’m confident that it will be worth much more in 10 years than it is worth today. But its current valuation is really hard to justify. At the first whiff of trouble, the market will adjust accordingly.
I bought this when it was $5. I know it is dumb but I don’t want to add more because it will ruin my 2,500% gain lol
Elon pisses himself on live tv and the next government shuts down all his contracts and rklb takes over. Is my dream scenario.
When will RKLB turn P/E positive?
Now, maybe I’m regarded. Actually there’s no maybe, I am. But this is the one stock I’m currently willing to hold buy and hold long term, without selling, that I really believe in. I do Boglehead/Ben Felix-style global total market and factor shit with 90% of my portfolio. Even the SOXL/KORU/DRAM/AIS I got going on in a side account is a temporary play that I think will exhaust itself by the end of 2028, if not sooner. But I’ve started building an RKLB position to I’m adding to when I can, and I’m going to keep doing it for the next 20 years when the opportunity presents itself. I only wish I’d started doing it when it was $20 instead of $70.
(I’ve also got some NASA too, just so I’ve got a position in the rest of space, plus a Jan 2028 LUNR leap I’m hoping will print into a 5 or 10 bagger)
I believe in the company long term, but all my shares are at $5 so I am sitting on a huge gain already. If there is some explosive rally as a result of the SpaceX IPO it seems highly likely that I’ll be able to take profits and then buy back in at a minimum 30-40% discount at a later time.
SpaceX and RKLB comparison is like comparing Tesla to Rivian or Lucid.
Not a SpaceX fan and think their valuation is ludicrous, but SpaceX has a high-margin cash generating machine in Starlink. RKLB nothing comparable, they have a science projects rocket and lots of hype, 20 years in business and yet to generate scale or profitability. Jane Street boys like to pump retail darlings and then pull the plug, this is their next play.