I think the same, they manipulated the oil price lower so it will spike from around 95$ instead of 105$, trump is holding back the inflation and oil price, they won’t reach any deal and a military action this weekend will spike the price around 130$, and they will cool it down before the market opens around 110-115$
WashU_labrat on
Timing military action to happen while financial markets are closed over a long weekend?
That’s stupid enough to be true in 2026
zanebell72 on
Al-Jazeera
Iran says ‘deep and significant’ differences remain with the US:
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says peace negotiations with the United States are not “close” and it’s difficult to say if a deal will be reached “over weeks or months”.
State media quoted Baghaei as saying the gaps between Tehran and Washington are “deep and significant”.
“We cannot necessarily say that we have reached a point where an agreement is close,” he said. “The focus of the negotiations is on ending the war. Details related to the nuclear issue are not being discussed at this stage.”
Just reported 4 minutes ago. This is all such a joke. Artificially suppressing prices like this will only make the eventual spike in inflation even worse once oil prices correct. We are not destroying enough demand at these lower prices, which will make the correction larger and more damaging.
Jealous_Slice9371 on
I agree. This new round of peace talks only occurred when oil was breaking out, literally within minutes, and Trump nor the gulf states want that. There’s no reason or signs either side is capitulating or anywhere close and there’s been all kinds of fake articles and statements the last few days. Trump is going to use the 3 day weekend to reiniate strikes and hope it gets absorbed before the market opens on Tuesday.
lastpassonright on
When Gulf oil infrastructure explodes, the price will go down!!
LifeIsButADream11111 on
There was a Daily Mail article saying that Trump is looking to attack Cuba. There was a big military meeting in Florida earlier this week too.
PapaverOneirium on
I think it’s possible.
Neither side seems to have seriously moved on their demands. Pressure is building to end this sooner than later as strategic reserves get drawn down, inflation grows, and the bond market wobbles. Reports indicate Iran has been rebuilding military-industrial capacity faster than expected, which also places time pressure on military action as a solution.
The recent articles about Netanyahu and Trump having tense disagreement on the right course of action feel like kayfabe we’ve seen before. Trump announcing he is missing his son’s wedding to deal with Iran feels ominous.
At the same time, the risks are extremely high and the probability of success seems low, given the failure of the previous rounds and the now lower advanced munitions stockpiles. The serious military planners still left at the Pentagon likely know this. The question is whether Trump understands that and/or whether he feels it is better to take the risk than not.
My base case is still that this current equilibrium will last for a while longer. But I’d put the chances of direct military confrontation resuming soon as the second most likely outcome. Achieving a (high level and unfinished) deal is third, but not totally outside the realm of possibility.
PJM123456 on
Attack for sure this weekend. From unrelated NYP article today:
“The news broke within minutes of the president saying he plans to remain at the White House this weekend — rather than at his New Jersey golf course — fueling speculation he’s poised to resume attacks on the Islamic Republic.”
13 Comments
Interesting. Why do you think?
I think the same, they manipulated the oil price lower so it will spike from around 95$ instead of 105$, trump is holding back the inflation and oil price, they won’t reach any deal and a military action this weekend will spike the price around 130$, and they will cool it down before the market opens around 110-115$
Timing military action to happen while financial markets are closed over a long weekend?
That’s stupid enough to be true in 2026
Al-Jazeera
Iran says ‘deep and significant’ differences remain with the US:
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says peace negotiations with the United States are not “close” and it’s difficult to say if a deal will be reached “over weeks or months”.
State media quoted Baghaei as saying the gaps between Tehran and Washington are “deep and significant”.
“We cannot necessarily say that we have reached a point where an agreement is close,” he said. “The focus of the negotiations is on ending the war. Details related to the nuclear issue are not being discussed at this stage.”
Just reported 4 minutes ago. This is all such a joke. Artificially suppressing prices like this will only make the eventual spike in inflation even worse once oil prices correct. We are not destroying enough demand at these lower prices, which will make the correction larger and more damaging.
I agree. This new round of peace talks only occurred when oil was breaking out, literally within minutes, and Trump nor the gulf states want that. There’s no reason or signs either side is capitulating or anywhere close and there’s been all kinds of fake articles and statements the last few days. Trump is going to use the 3 day weekend to reiniate strikes and hope it gets absorbed before the market opens on Tuesday.
When Gulf oil infrastructure explodes, the price will go down!!
There was a Daily Mail article saying that Trump is looking to attack Cuba. There was a big military meeting in Florida earlier this week too.
I think it’s possible.
Neither side seems to have seriously moved on their demands. Pressure is building to end this sooner than later as strategic reserves get drawn down, inflation grows, and the bond market wobbles. Reports indicate Iran has been rebuilding military-industrial capacity faster than expected, which also places time pressure on military action as a solution.
The recent articles about Netanyahu and Trump having tense disagreement on the right course of action feel like kayfabe we’ve seen before. Trump announcing he is missing his son’s wedding to deal with Iran feels ominous.
At the same time, the risks are extremely high and the probability of success seems low, given the failure of the previous rounds and the now lower advanced munitions stockpiles. The serious military planners still left at the Pentagon likely know this. The question is whether Trump understands that and/or whether he feels it is better to take the risk than not.
My base case is still that this current equilibrium will last for a while longer. But I’d put the chances of direct military confrontation resuming soon as the second most likely outcome. Achieving a (high level and unfinished) deal is third, but not totally outside the realm of possibility.
Attack for sure this weekend. From unrelated NYP article today:
“The news broke within minutes of the president saying he plans to remain at the White House this weekend — rather than at his New Jersey golf course — fueling speculation he’s poised to resume attacks on the Islamic Republic.”
[https://nypost.com/2026/05/22/us-news/tulsi-gabbard-resigns-as-director-of-national-intelligence/](https://nypost.com/2026/05/22/us-news/tulsi-gabbard-resigns-as-director-of-national-intelligence/)
I made a deal with myself to delete my Reddit account on Sunday if there are no strikes 😝
That is always his plan. Steal as much as he can and then steal away into the darkness.
Disagree, peace this weekend but will see 🙂
Yes it will destroy the economy.