“The Boomers Are Here! What’s Coming Will Absolutely Blow Your Mind” – Eric Balchunas

“The Boomers Are Here! What’s Coming Will Absolutely Blow Your Mind” – Eric Balchunas

there’s three main types of investors
retail there’s like do-it-yourself
people who have brokerage accounts then
there’s advisers those people manage $30
trillion in America and that’s where the
bulk of the money is that’s the crowd
this ETF is namely going after and they
love ETFs
advisors ETFs are their favorite vehicle
to use for anything so they’re very
comfortable with them they trust them
they use Black Rock ETFs all the time so
that to me is the main Market that would
open up with the ETF for Bitcoin then
you have institutions so I would see
that down the line the owners of the
Bitcoin ETF are you know maybe 20%
retail
60% um advisors and maybe another 20%
institutional senior Bloomberg ETF
analyst Eric balchunas has been a
prominent personality in the crypto
space since Black Rock applied for a
spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund last
June last year before the SE gave the
green light in January Eric and his
Bloomberg colleague James saart said
there was a 90% chance of approval
despite years of disapproval from the
SEC Eric and James were certain that the
interest of Big Wall Street players like
Black Rock and Fidelity would tip the
scales and incentivize the regulator to
approve at least one spot Bitcoin ETF
fortunately the SEC approved several
spot Bitcoin ETFs on the same day Eric
and James predicted and the launch has
been a massive success the biggest
launch in the history of ETFs though the
past two weeks have been somewhat mellow
for the ETFs especially compared to the
first 7 weeks of unprecedented demand
from investors Eric believes the spot
Bitcoin ETFs still have a long way to go
before demand begins to fizzle out
according to the senior Bloomberg
analyst a massive $ 30 trillion market
now has free access to bitcoin through
the newly approved ETFs financial
advisers control about 30 trillion
dollar of advised wealth in the United
States Eric and several other experts
expect that at least 1% of that will be
pumped into Bitcoin ETFs gradually over
the next weeks and months all spot
Bitcoin ETFs currently have a combined
AUM of just over $50 billion and about
122 billion in inflows tens of billions
are in but if these estimates are right
there could be hundreds more to come the
effect that will have on Price is almost
unimaginable as we bring you clips from
Eric’s recent interview with David Lynn
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enjoy the video I’ve been watch ever
since the Black Rock filing last June uh
Bitcoin I think was around
30,000 and since that filing there was a
more and more good news and it was sort
of like a buy the rumor and that drove
the price up
60% they when they approved it there was
was a little bit of a sell the news
event there but then the inflows were so
strong you know right off the bat they
were strong but I expected that but then
they had this really big second wind and
it’s really rare even for a hyped up new
launch normally there’s Fan Fair the
first couple days then it kind of like
settles into an equilibrium and then
maybe down the line it catches fire
again who knows this one like caught
fire like in the fourth week and went
straight back up in terms of flows and
that I think that helped the price kind
of come back because in my opinion it
feels like that there should have been
more pullback after the selda news
because you go up 60% in anticipation
normally there’s a sort of Comedown
that’s way deeper than we saw so I think
that the robustness of the ETF flows
helped sustain the runup and then some
and so I do think it’s very related
because there hasn’t been a ton of other
uh catalysts in the Bitcoin Market some
have even argued that a lot of the
narratives are kind of gone
um you know in fact this use of a
currency um so I think that the ETFs
were massive deal and they should be
ETFs are the preferred vehicle of most
professional investors and especially
advisers they’re fast they’re good
they’re cheap they’re easy it’s like
putting your band’s music you know on
Spotify uh you’re just you’re you’re
you’re you are where the fish are biting
so just by having a Bitcoin ETF it opens
up a ton of new investors so I think the
price largely is moving off the ETFs I
would I’ve seen some days where the ETFs
taking money the price still sells off
so remember ETFs only own 4% of Bitcoin
so far there’s many other people who can
move the price but i’ say it seems like
half of them never trade so the float is
smaller but still ETFs are still a
minority owner but they’re the new kid
on uh new kid in town they’re the ones
that have been like the positive
catalyst so I would say for now yeah the
ETFs are a big deal the LA was really uh
tremendous um it sort of cooled down a
little bit the last week but uh overall
we’re talking about 12 billion in net
flows um and 55 billion in total assets
th those were those are numbers that I
would that our our predictions had those
numbers after 12 months not three so
that just tells you where where they are
and I thought we were one of the more
optimistic teams out there so they’ve
kind of already reached our 12- month
predictions in two and a half months I
think though what’s interesting about
this era of Bitcoin it’s like the seems
like the fourth time this thing has
survived like a World War I mean Bitcoin
is like a cockroach in terms of its
ability to like come back from the dead
and that’s why I respect it it isn’t
going away I think it was supposed to go
away three times now so I think now
we’re at this more mature level of like
the mainstream ification of Bitcoin so I
think institutions don’t need to wait
for a rally I think they’re they’re sort
of like looking at everything and going
okay it’s not a currency but two things
one we don’t want to kick ourselves if
it goes to a million bucks I call that
like future fomo cure and number two
everybody sort of try coming Awakening
the fact that like you know the dollar
has been devalued and inflation can
steal your money and you get less of
your actual returns your real returns
are less than what your portfolio shows
and this could be a way to protect from
that because it’s you know again a store
of value so I think for those two
reasons even if people aren’t True
Believer
uh they might be interested to allocate
to it and so I think that’s that’s
pretty powerful I think and it didn’t
have that before and I think the ETF and
having people like Larry thinkink who is
the head of Black Rock and Fidelity and
these gigantic massive American
institutions the asset managers having
them involved and sort of like backing
it is a big deal during the interview
Eric also discussed the past week’s ETF
outflows the effect on bitcoin’s prices
and how much longer he expects it to
continue according to Eric a trafi
native Bitcoin might be a few thousand
from its all-time high but it is still
up by over 100% in the past 6 months and
about 150% in the past year Eric also
believes the price declines were caused
by crypto natives taking profit as soon
as Bitcoin exceeded $70,000 earlier this
month despite these factors which Eric
maintains are completely normal black
Rock’s ibit continues to maintain an
impressive inflow streak according to
Eric’s latest Twitter post on the topic
ibit has recorded inflows for 69
consecutive days an impressive feat for
an ETF based on an asset that was
considered a no-go area by investors
just a year ago Eric’s post reads ibit
inflow streak is currently at 69 days
one more day and it moves into the top
10 and ties with jets a streak I was
equally as fascinated by the Bitcoin
ETFs are still breaking records and
recording new mileston Stones let’s get
back to Eric’s interview this time he
addresses widespread claims that black
rock and other ETF issuers have been
stockpiling Bitcoin since last year and
that stockpiling was responsible for the
move to New all-time highs here is
Eric’s response to those claims no
because uh the way ETFs work these
companies don’t they’re like Vegas they
don’t want to be like when the Vegas has
a sports book They’re not taking it
aside they just want to make the small
BG in between the two sides these
companies are just like that they don’t
want to be long or short Bitcoin so
Black Rock was not going to buy Bitcoin
before they were simply so when they
launched it they may lined up an
investor perhaps or a couple to give
them money on day one and then as they
went forward and got more flows every
time they get a new investors they go
buy the Bitcoin and if an investor
leaves they sell the Bitcoin they do not
want to end the day long or short
Bitcoin neither do the market makers
this is they’re just like a Caso in that
way they just take a small V which we
call the expense ratio or in Market
Maker’s case the spread and it’s a tiny
tiny little V I think it’s a fair
tradeoff for the outs you know to be
able to Outsource all this to somebody
else and so they would never buy it
before the runup before I think was a
lot of crypto people and hedge funds a
lot of hedge funds bought the discount
in gbtc it was trading way below its nav
and that discount was going to close if
it converted so a lot of prop Traders
were buying the the gbtc discount which
to me probably also listed the price of
Bitcoin so that’s who I think bought it
before it was all speculators it wasn’t
the asset the asset managers launching
the ETFs they only bought Bitcoin when
they started to get customer orders for
it all I know is that over time you’re
going to see inflows in outflows look at
anybody could could see this if you look
at like GLD or spy or even Vanguard
funds see outflows that’s just how ETFs
operate but what I was trying to say was
a don’t let one outflow day make you cry
a little baby some of these some of
these people I’ll be honest like they
they want like 10% returns every day and
when they get nice rallies it goes on
for like 18 straight days yeah on the
19th day it goes down they flip and it
just reminds me of a little baby like a
spoiled little baby and I’m like listen
relax it’s fine you’re up like you’re
the as you said you’re the best
performing asset this year you’re
running circles around the NASDAQ 100
what else do you want so Arc has one
outflow day the 10 of them still saw net
inflows Arc $87 million when Arc has
seen 50 days of inflows out of like 55
it is no big deal like in
fact that’s why I was saying just relax
what you’ll see is people go in and out
but over time categories grow in net
positive so and I see the same thing
happening here and there could be a
downturn where bitcoin’s down 30% and
maybe six out of 10 10 of them see
outflows in a week well it’s okay over
time as the category builds and ETFs are
popular the category will grow and
generally ETF investors are stronger
hands than people think I do not see
100% of the investors running for the
hills if Bitcoin goes down 30% I bet you
know you’ll see some people maybe 10% uh
right 10% of 55 billion is 5 billion so
five billion outs in a week people like
oh my God but it’s not that it’s it’s
okay over time though I see that 55
billion slowly increase
and most of the people are going to stay
ETF investors here’s why most ETF
investors are 6040 types they have
stocks bonds and they they have it save
for retirement and they’re going to wait
30 years for that to grow like a tree
because it’s got a compound which is
where the magic is in investing but
they’re bored so they leave that alone
and then they have a little allocation
which I call hot sauce and they’ll go
and they’ll find stuff that makes their
blood go you know gets their blood going
or they feel like is like going to make
them have fomo and Bitcoin to me is
where this goes it’s in the hot sauce
bucket and because you have all all of
your serious money covered in the 6040
S&P 500 kind of
portfolio you don’t have as much
jitteriness with this little allocation
to bitcoin that’s why ETF investors tend
to be a little better behaved meanwhile
three advisers have just invested almost
$60 million in Fidelity’s fbtc and black
Rock’s ibit a testament to the continued
heightened interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs
by all categories of investors here is a
tweet from Eric we have a new high
watermark for investment into one of the
Bitcoin ETFs two different advisers each
put in $20 million to fbtc one is from
Kansas and the other is from Minnesota
the percentage of the portfolio is also
pretty high at 6% and 5% respectively
this edges out the $17 million an
adviser put in ibit in a follow-up post
Eric discusses the importance of these
new Investments and how there is still
so much more to come the post reads
here’s the homepage from the Kansas
adviser that just plowed $20 million
into fbtc this is as Boomer as it gets
it is likely a wonderful sight for those
hoping to see long-term adoption and an
absolute nightmare for the raia Skeptics
branch of the underwhelms club we still
have 5 to 6 weeks of more 13f reporting
like this we could see 500 to 1,000
firms like this reporting Holdings once
the dust settles and that’s just 113 F
season there are four in a year the
adviser the United Capital Management of
Kansas has put 4.96 5% of its portfolio
into fbtc and it seems to have embraced
the full Spirit of the cryptocurrency
industry its recently updated homepage
now shows a cheeky message for crypto
investors the message reads we are
coming for your coins Deion as Eric said
this is as Boomer and conservative as it
gets yet this firm is quickly embracing
the free spirit of the crypto industry
and there is still so much more to come
how crazy do you think things will get
within the next few weeks especially
with the Bitcoin Hing out of the way
which means fewer willing sellers please
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Credit: David Lin
Will Bitcoin Price Collapse? What ETF Data Reveals | Eric Balchunas

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