Why Sudan’s conflict matters – The Global Jigsaw podcast, BBC World Service

    My name is Amal, that does mean hope, but 
    I don’t find any hope, unfortunately.
     
    Amal al-Hassan is a journalist from 
    Sudan who fled to Kenya last year,  
    after war broke out in her country.
    Every Sudanese woman, child, man facing very hard  
    time. This war is like a nightmare. We 
    are all suffering a lot, we are lost.
    Sudan is about to mark a sad anniversary, 
    one year of war with no end in sight.
    Right now with Sudan, things are really 
    quite dark. The nation is divided. The  
    mistrust between the two actors and 
    also across a country runs so deep.
    Sudan is in the grip of a humanitarian disaster. 
    The UN believes the country is experiencing  
    the world’s largest internal displacement 
    crisis. There are fears that if not stopped,  
    this conflict could further destabilise an already 
    volatile region. In this episode we try to piece  
    together the Sudan picture from the few trusted 
    sources that are left on the ground – with the  
    help of our Africa watchers who we met in Nairobi. 
    And a warning – there are distressing details.
    I’m Krassi Twigg and this is The Global Jigsaw 
    – an original podcast from BBC Monitoring,  
    zooming in on political, security and social 
    shifts around the world, through the lens of its  
    media. Our team listens to, watches and analyses 
    media narratives in one hundred languages.
    Sudan remains important despite 
    the fact that it’s become the war  
    that sort of been in the back burner 
    because there’s so many other things  
    going on. Now there’s a war in Gaza, 
    there’s still the conflict in Ukraine.
    Beverly Ochieng, one of our top Africa experts,  
    was telling me why the world should 
    be paying attention to this conflict.
    There’s a bigger Middle East crisis and Sudan 
    straddles that region. It’s an African country,  
    but it also has very strong Muslim Arab links. 
    So, it’s still caught in the crossfire of all  
    of that. There was concerns about the 
    possibility of Sudan further fracturing.
    A further fracturing in a high stakes region might  
    have far-reaching consequences 
    – but more on those later.
    This is a complex story. So let’s get the basics 
    – what’s happening and who is fighting whom?  
    Here’s another Africa 
    watcher – Ahmed Mohamed Abdi.
    The war that broke out between the Sudanese 
    Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support  
    Forces – two very well armed parties – has created 
    a huge humanitarian situation in the country and  
    also displacement at unprecedented 
    levels. So this one is more complex,  
    bigger in terms of the spread of the conflict 
    because it has affected the whole of the country.
    Here’s what this mean in numbers: 18 million 
    people face acute hunger, according to the World  
    Food Programme. The UN says 8 million people are 
    internally displaced or have fled the country.
     
    The war in Sudan is a multi-layered conflict 
    so before we can start unpicking it, we need to  
    know a bit of the history. with the help of Deka 
    Barrow from our Nairobi team – and this factfile.
    Sudan is the third largest country in Africa, 
    stretching across an unstable and geopolitically  
    vital region. It’s predominantly Muslim 
    and with 46 million people. one the poorest  
    countries in the world. It straddles the 
    Nile River and borders seven countries,  
    each with security challenges that 
    are intertwined with the politics of  
    Khartoum. Sudan has lucrative minerals, 
    including gold, uranium, and iron ore.
    It has been in an out of civil wars 
    since it gained independence in 1956.  
    Its western region of Darfur saw successive 
    wars from 2003. Another protracted war led to  
    it splitting into two countries in 2011 
    after oil-rich southern Sudan voted for  
    independence. This followed decades 
    of struggle by the mainly Christian  
    and animist south against rule by the Arab 
    Muslim north. Sudan has also had successive  
    coups entrenching military regimes that 
    favoured Islamic-oriented governments.
    Another turning point came in 2018 when 
    nationwide protests broke out demanding  
    the removal of one of Africa’s longest serving 
    leaders – Omar al-Bashir. He came to power in  
    an Islamist-backed coup in 1989 and was the first 
    ever sitting president to be indicted on genocide  
    charges by the International Criminal Court. 
    Women played a prominent role in the revolution.
    Following Bashir’s ousting, a Sovereign Council 
    consisting of military and civilian leaders, meant  
    to prepare Sudan for a return to civilian rule and 
    elections but that was hijacked by another coup.
    Since then, Sudan has been torn between two 
    military men trying to share power – General  
    Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the army, and 
    General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti,  
    leader of the Rapid Support Forces formerly 
    based in Darfur and known as Janjaweed militias.
    Their dispute led to an outright 
    war that started last April.
    Let’s go back to 2018 – a key 
    moment for people power which  
    resulted in the removal of 
    a long-serving strongman.
    In January 2018, we were talking about protests 
    and disgruntlement because of the rising cost of  
    bread, which is a basic commodity for many. 
    And then within the span of a year how those  
    protests morphed into calls to remove one of 
    the longest-serving leaders in the region.
    And how the state of the economy had 
    been so shattered under Omar al Bashir,  
    because there had been Western sanctions 
    because of the allegations that there  
    were sponsoring the Al Qaeda group. 
    There was a period in the nineties,  
    where it was discovered that Osama Bin Laden 
    that then leader had been hiding out in Sudan.  
    But there was also the wave of change that 
    was coming from young people who are exposed.  
    The media had opened up at this point. There 
    were lots of newspapers, lots of online pages,  
    who were mobilising online by these so-called 
    neighbourhood resistance committees, by even just  
    young activists and artists. There were people 
    who were chanting, you know, ‘Sudan is ours’.
    And then eventually those chants 
    changed into ‘Omar Bashir must leave’.
    The ousting of one of Africa’s longest 
    serving autocrats sent waves of excitement  
    and optimism around the region, that the 
    voice of the people could become a real  
    factor in Sudan’s politics. But it wasn’t the 
    people who reaped the rewards. It was two men  
    with appetite for power. It started as 
    a revolution and it ended in a coup.
    Before the war broke out there had been some 
    discussions for the possible formation of another  
    government, which would include some of the 
    civilian and political actors who had been part  
    of that transition – the former prime minister 
    Abdullah Hamdok, who had been removed, and there  
    was still the military leader Burhan, and then 
    there was the leader of the RSF, the Rapid Support  
    Forces, Hemedti. And there were discussions 
    where the RSF would need to be dissolved,  
    and Hemedti wasn’t too happy with the possibility 
    that he might lose his own centre of power, and  
    because of these two centres of power constantly 
    antagonising each other a war broke out.
    Was their disagreement always about 
    who is going to be number one?
    Essentially, yes. Hemedti seemed to be building 
    himself to be a bit of a statesman and sometimes  
    it felt as if he would be overshadowing 
    Burhan. Burhan is from an old guard,  
    so he’s not doing social media videos and he’s 
    not doing, you know, your very slick campaigns  
    online or showing up in suits and places. Hemedti 
    was really reaching out to the civilian coalition,  
    the Forces of Freedom and Change. He was building 
    a whole campaign around himself. He was travelling  
    to different places and this was sort of giving 
    him a bit of a mark. And there was the discussion  
    that there was the possibility that they could 
    hand over Bashir to the ICC, which may have  
    implicated the two men, so in a way they had to 
    find a way to outmanoeuvre each other, it seems.
    Two men with their eyes set on the top job, each 
    one fearful of the looming threat of justice,  
    each one with a lot to lose. The 
    result is a country caught in their  
    power struggle. Not what the people 
    behind the revolution were hoping for.
    The military removed the most 
    powerful man, but I think that  
    wave of euphoria has been shattered. 
    Particularly now because of the war.  
    And because many of those groups that had been 
    galvanising this pro-democracy movement, where  
    you have young people and women at the centre of 
    politics, they now either have escaped because of  
    the war, or their voices cannot really be heard. 
    You have gunfire, literally, almost every day.
    One of those seeking shelter from the shooting 
    in the first weeks of the conflict last April in  
    Omdurman was journalist Amal al-Hassan and 
    her small team of the Al-Taghyir website.  
    She watched the war descending on her country.
    We facing a very horrible time. And at the 
    same time we keep working because we tell  
    each other – this is our job. When the war 
    start, the first victim is the truth. And  
    there is like a big propaganda from both side of 
    conflict parties. That is why we have to continue  
    speaking up out there, what happened to the people 
    and the failings the Sudanese people are facing,  
    and how has Khartoum became like a city of ghosts 
    in no time. Sudanese people suffering a lot.
    Embassies vacated their staff, in some instances 
    destroyed documents because of safety. There was  
    some anger towards Western states because 
    the Sudan war was also taking place at the  
    same time as the war in Ukraine, and there 
    were some visa arrangements for Ukrainian  
    nationals leaving the country. And people 
    were calling out Western governments for  
    not making similar arrangements for Sudanese 
    nationals, even those who had families away.
    The capital Khartoum hadn’t seen war in 
    decades until last April. People left  
    in their hundreds of thousands, including 
    many journalists, like Amal. That created an  
    information vacuum which was quickly filled 
    with rumours and propaganda. So how do you  
    monitor a country at war, where your reliable 
    sources vanish almost overnight? Moses Rono,  
    a veteran of monitoring Africa’s 
    media, explains his team’s challenges.
    The media generally over the years was repressed 
    under Bashir. Journalists used to struggle to  
    get access to information. (EDGE IN DRAMATIC 
    MUSIC – guitar 4 bed – vcs 34104) I remember  
    a long time ago when I started, we used to have 
    what used to be called pre-press censorship,  
    so government agents would confiscate 
    complete print runs of newspapers,  
    just before they are made available in the 
    newsstands. And you’d get blank pages of  
    newspapers. There was the hope after the 
    revolution that the tight controls that  
    Bashir had imposed on the press and the media 
    generally in Sudan were going to go away,  
    and the media would be more robust. But with the 
    war starting, we’ve had massive challenges as a  
    team monitoring Sudan. The biggest challenge is 
    getting reliable information from the country.
    BRING UP MUSIC
    All the actors are fighting to control 
    the message. If you look at the state TV,  
    Radio Omdurman and Sunna, the official 
    news agency, all controlled by the army,  
    and they skew reporting towards the army line. 
    At the same time, outlets that are pro-the RSF  
    would skew the reporting to favour them. 
    So that’s been a challenge because finding  
    reliable information is really difficult. A number 
    of media sources, including websites, even radios,  
    are no longer accessible. Some of the reliable 
    websites – they will take weeks and weeks before  
    they update. It’s quite sporadic and unreliable. 
    It is very unsafe. We couldn’t get freelancers,  
    we couldn’t get access to some of the 
    newspapers, we couldn’t get access to radio  
    stations. That’s a big challenge that we face.

    Amal al-Hassan, the Sudanese editor of Al-Taghyir  
    website, has an on-the-ground perspective on 
    why reliable information has become hard to get.
    I’m responsible for my team. All the time I 
    told them there is no story valuable more than  
    your life. I wanted them to stay safe. At the 
    same time I know that mission they are doing,  
    it is not easy. They are in very dangerous places. 
    They could lost their life and no-one is going to  
    ask what happened. So, they are really very brave. 
    They are still working every single day. Even they  
    have like very problems like there is no power 
    for days and there is a problem for accessing  
    the internet, but when the internet is come, 
    they bring their stories immediately. One day  
    he write the story about something happen before 
    three days. I said nobody know about this. Don’t  
    worry. We can’t call it news in our evaluation 
    of what news is – something happened now. But it  
    is still news, and you are doing a great job.

    So the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese  
    Armed Forces are the main parties in this war. Bev 
    will talk about the RSF, and Ahmed will describe  
    the army for you. Let’s go through the main 
    elements. First, who are the warring parties?
    The Sudan Armed Forces has ruled this 
    country for almost 57 years out of the  
    nearly 70 years of this country’s independence. 
    Just before the war broke out I think the Sudan  
    Armed Forces was one of the most powerful in 
    the Horn of Africa region with over 200,000  
    troops. This is just a modern army which 
    has an air force, which has naval troops,  
    which has also ground troops. They were well 
    equipped, although most of the equipment  
    came from Russia and China because of 
    the sanctions placed on the country.
    The RSF was born out of a militia known 
    as the Janjaweed, which had been operating  
    in the Darfur region, formed by Arab ethnic 
    groups. And they were countering rebel groups  
    that had emerged in the Darfur region – you know 
    Darfur – the place of the Fur. And the war was  
    an issue around skin colour and identity. 
    And the rebel groups were largely from the  
    Massalit and the Fur black communities. 
    When they had essentially been defeated,  
    the Janjaweed was formalised into a force that 
    would be a sort of paramilitary coalition,  
    but also would be used for insurgencies 
    outside of Sudan because that was lucrative,  
    especially for Hemedti who was building 
    himself as a sort of king-maker of the region.
    The Rapid Support Forces are estimated to have 
    numbered about 100,000 before the war started  
    that’s half the size of the Sudanese 
    army. And the two men vying for the  
    top job – Burhan and Hemedti 
    – have a long shared history.
    Al-Burhan is a career soldier. He joined the 
    military college in Khartoum before also taking  
    military courses in Egypt and Jordan. He has also 
    been the military attaché of Sudan in China. In  
    April 2019, he was installed as the chairman of 
    the transitional military council just a day after  
    al-Bashir was toppled by his defence minister and 
    senior military generals, including al-Burhan.
    General Burhan, he had been a long-time 
    ally of Omar al-Bashir. So he is pretty  
    much of the old regime. He has lots 
    of military and economic interests,  
    and then his deputy up until you know the 
    war broke out was Hemedti – Hamdan Dagalo  
    Hemedti – and he is the leader 
    of the Rapid Support Forces,  
    the RSF. There’s all this contention about 
    Hemedti’s citizenship. He is believed to be  
    Chadian possibly. He comes from Darfur. And he 
    had been the leader of the RSF since the early  
    2000s. He had been a camel herder. Someone who 
    has really risen up from almost nothing to being  
    in the position that he is. And I suppose when 
    the coup happened in 2019 it did give Hemedti  
    the possibility of having a bigger political 
    ambition. He could actually be a statesman.
    Sudan consists of 18 states. So who’s 
    in control of which part of the country?
    The Sudan Armed Forces controls most parts of 
    the country, as of now. Most of the states,  
    especially the north, central and eastern parts,  
    most of the Sudan Armed Forces 
    capabilities and bases are still intact.
    When the war broke out it almost felt as if 
    the RSF had the upper hand because they did  
    manage to take quite a few military bases 
    in very strategic areas. Over a long time,  
    the RSF has had de facto control over the 
    western region of Darfur and that’s because  
    of their involvement in the 2003 genocide. 
    If you’re in the Darfur corridor you’re very  
    close to Chad and even the Central African 
    Republic. If you were towards the Kordofans,  
    you were near South Sudan. That is 
    also a very big trafficking route.
    The UN estimates that 300,000 people 
    were killed in the Darfur war and Omar  
    al-Bashir is still being sought 
    by the International Criminal  
    Court on charges of war crimes and crimes 
    against humanity over that conflict.
    We heard that propaganda replaced 
    reliable information. So what’s  
    the message you hear from the warring sides? Let’s  
    start with the army – their narrative and 
    how they respond to accusations of abuses.
    AHMED 5 – 16687
    The Sudan Armed Forces interpret the current  
    conflict in the sense that this is a rebellion by 
    a the Rapid Support Forces against the state and  
    that they are trying to defeat this rebellion 
    which they accuse of destroying the country,  
    and also committing atrocities against civilians 
    in the areas that they seize. There have been  
    accusations against the army of carrying out
    indiscriminate air strikes against civilian  
    populated areas, especially inside the 
    capital, Khartoum and also some cities  
    in Darfur and Kordofan regions. But 
    the army has repeatedly denied this.
    The army also points to the fact that the 
    areas that are under the control of the  
    armed forces is where most of the civilians 
    have fled to. They basically saying that this  
    shows that the civilians have faith in 
    the armed forces, they acknowledge that  
    there have been some civilian casualties in 
    some of the airstrikes and also some of the  
    attacks. But they’re saying that these are limited 
    and not intentional. They always compare that to  
    what they call the indiscriminate 
    and deliberate attacks by the RSF.
    BRING UP MUSIC
    There have been reports by human rights 
    organisations and the United Nations that the  
    RSF committed atrocities in the West Darfur state, 
    the RSF killed between 10 to 15,000 civilians.  
    The army’s basically pointing to these reports.
    To contrast these reports the RSF 
    are portraying themselves as the good  
    guys – against multiple accusations 
    of war crimes, which they deny.
    Sometimes they’ll put out material, trying to 
    demonstrate that they are sharing humanitarian  
    aid even though the accounts from the media 
    and activists are very different from that.  
    What you see on their social media feed is that 
    they are willing to change Sudan and they want  
    to be part of the politics. But the narratives 
    coming out are very different. And one of the  
    things that they do primarily is the othering. 
    They would talk about the Islamist influence  
    in the government and that, obviously, linked 
    back to Omar al-Bashir and his links with the  
    Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. They would talk 
    about the possibility of jihadists. and that  
    would also echo with the fact that Osama Bin 
    Laden had once been hosted in the country and  
    that’s what led to sanctions. And in doing 
    so they are trying to adapt the language of  
    the more revolutionary political and social 
    class, who had wanted Omar al-Bashir out.
    The RSF seem to be refashioning some 
    of the revolutionary language in a  
    quest for appeal. And they seem to have 
    a sophisticated social media strategy.
    They’re really good with media. Part of 
    it is believed to be domiciled in the UAE,  
    they had Facebook accounts, which were taken 
    down. They do have a raft of Twitter accounts,  
    including influencers. They have 
    their official accounts where they  
    will put a long statements. They put up videos of 
    organising football tournaments between children,  
    and by contrast Sudanese media and activists 
    talked about how the RSF was allegedly rounding  
    up young men and sometimes just executing 
    them on site. Whenever allegations of war  
    crimes emerged the US has cited this, the UN 
    has cited this, the ICC prosecutors cited this.  
    The RSF tends to be disproportionately 
    mentioned a lot more in these reports.
    How the army spreads its message 
    couldn’t be more different.
    Sudan TV airs military statements and 
    videos that promote military propaganda.
    Most of these bulletins, they lead with 
    the Sudanese Armed Forces statements of  
    battlefield victories and also 
    reports from the army commander,  
    General Burhan. The army also uses 
    social media just like the RSF. Its  
    account on Facebook has over two million 
    followers and it uses that platform to  
    share statements and videos. It’s also 
    has an account on social media platform X.
    Claims of battlefield victories fighting 
    it out on the information front. And if  
    the story wasn’t complex enough, 
    wait until you hear about the web  
    of external forces with a vested 
    interest – and it’s a long list.
    Egypt was one of the countries that also was 
    backing the new administration in Sudan after  
    Bashir was toppled. it also supported the Sudanese 
    transitional government and is currently accused  
    of also backing the Sudanese Armed Forces. Russia 
    and China, they have supported al-Bashir and after  
    the fall of Bashir they maintained relations 
    with the transitional council led by Abdel  
    Fattah al Burhan. They still maintain relations 
    with the current military-led government. China  
    had in the past a huge interest in Sudan’s 
    energy sector. The same goes for Russia,  
    although it has mainly military cooperation 
    with Sudan. There have been reports of Russian  
    companies in the mining sector in Sudan, 
    especially in the gold mining in Darfur and  
    the northern and eastern regions of the country. 
    The Russian government officially says that it  
    is neutral in this conflict and has called for 
    dialogue between the two parties and there was  
    this military cooperation agreement that dates 
    back to the government of Omar al-Bashir that  
    Russia will establish a naval base in 
    Port Sudan, which is on the Red Sea. The  
    military said that there were reviewing that 
    agreement that was reached with the Russians.
    The RSF has a lot of bases in Darfur. They were 
    sort of de facto running the goldmine. They were  
    also linked to the Wagner mercenaries from Russia 
    and Hemedti did have his own training and support  
    agreement with the Wagner group. The army has said 
    that the RSF is possibly getting reinforcements  
    from the Wagner group either from Libya, or from 
    the CAR or even somehow getting in through Chad,  
    because that border area is quite volatile. 
    There’s also been allegations that South Sudan  
    may have militarily facilitated the RSF. 
    South Sudan has officially denied this.
    It sounds a bit like a two-circles 
    Venn diagram with Russia in the middle,  
    and that is just one actor. Let’s take 
    a closer look at the regional actors  
    with a stake in this war – our guide is 
    Sumaya Bakhsh from our Middle East team:
    The key Arab actors in the Sudan conflict 
    are the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. In  
    terms of what their game is in Sudan, they 
    have divergent interests. So, for example,  
    the UAE and Saudi Arabia are both seeking to 
    increase their influence regionally and so  
    we’ve seen this play out in the Sudan 
    conflict which also has translated to  
    rivalry between the two Gulf states which 
    we’ve also seen for example in Yemen.
    Yemen too has had its own conflict for 
    a decade now that has brought disaster  
    to its people. It’s curious to find 
    a connection between Sudan and Yemen.
    The Saudi-led coalition began its military 
    campaign in Yemen against the Houthi  
    rebels in Yemen in 2015 and Sudan sent tens of 
    thousands of troops to fight in Yemen on the  
    side of the government backed by the coalition. 
    Thousands have been killed during that time,  
    but we don’t have clear figures on 
    that, apart from the Houthi sources.
    The Houthis are currently in the spotlight for 
    attacking ships in the Red Sea – and keeping  
    that shipping lane safe is important 
    for the Gulf states, among others.
    Any further instability or any broadening 
    of the scope of any conflict in the region  
    could further impact the situation 
    in the Red Sea. Shipping interests,  
    investment for Saudi Arabia and the 
    UAE, and it’s not in their interest  
    to see any kind of further instability 
    or threats to security in the region.
    Saudi Arabia and the UAE are 
    supporting the opposing sites in  
    the Sudan conflict. What’s this competition about?
    For Saudi Arabia, these talks have been really 
    important in terms of really increasing its  
    global influence and how it’s viewed as 
    an important regional player. There is  
    a rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in 
    terms of both of them, all of the Gulf states,  
    are seeking to diversify their economies 
    away from oil and to increase their political  
    influence in the region and also on a 
    global level. And in Sudan specifically,  
    Saudi Arabia backs the army and the UAE has 
    reportedly got links to the RSF. We’ve seen  
    reports of it providing arms to the RSF. A recent 
    UN report said it found credible evidence that  
    it has been providing weapons. This has been 
    denied by the UAE, but this is what we’ve seen.
    Another significant player that Ahmed  
    mentioned earlier has more at stake 
    because of its geographical proximity.
    Egypt is Sudan’s neighbour, so firstly 
    in terms of security bears the potential  
    threat at its border of armed groups 
    and spillover, but additionally it  
    hosts Sudanese refugees and at the moment 
    it’s hosting more than 300,000 refugees,  
    and the longer this goes on the more potential 
    there is for more refugees to arrive in the  
    country and that could potentially cause further 
    strain on its already struggling economy.
    International efforts to bring peace or at least 
    a ceasefire have failed to deliver. Getting the  
    warring parties to the table doesn’t seem an 
    easy task. Bev guides us through the attempts.
    The biggest one comes from the Inter-Governmental 
    Authority on Development, which is known as IGAD.  
    It’s the Horn of Africa block and it spans a 
    huge area – so Sudan, you have South Sudan, you  
    have Kenya, you have Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, 
    Djibouti. They were among the first to call for a  
    ceasefire. Kenya has always had this peace-making 
    role in the region. They facilitated the eventual  
    fracture between Sudan and South Sudan in a way 
    that didn’t end up being as acrimonious as we  
    saw the civil war being. They have played a key 
    role in peace processes in Ethiopia. President  
    William Ruto said we ask these generals to stop 
    the nonsense, and that didn’t go down very well.  
    It felt like a strong message to stop the war. 
    But in the end, it has severely degraded the  
    progress of peace talks. So IGAD has not been 
    able to play a very influential role as it  
    would in bringing the two parties together.
    Ethiopia has also tried, not just by hosting  
    refugees, but also trying to demonstrate that 
    its own peace process from the civil war could  
    be used as a template for a possible peace 
    process. That hasn’t worked. But what has  
    happened now is that the army has said it is no 
    longer part of IGAD and Hemedti said, you know,  
    he does not recognise that they still
    believe in the IGAD effort. Then you  
    obviously have the African Union. It did form 
    a mechanism which will be led by three people  
    who will be overseeing talks. But then for 
    the very first time, when talks resumed in  
    Jeddah towards the end of last year, IGAD and 
    the African Union did join that process. You  
    would imagine they would have given it more 
    weight, but so far there’s still no ceasefire.
    I have a more pessimistic view about 
    where we are in terms of the peace  
    talks or attempts to end the war. The 
    biggest players have been Saudi Arabia,  
    supported by the US. You know they’ve been leading 
    what has been called the Jeddah track or dialogue.
    Moses’ assessment about the Jeddah talks is 
    somewhat downbeat too. And there’s an elephant  
    in the room – someone with a big footprint on 
    the continent – whose presence hasn’t been felt.
    What has happened is the US’s own, I 
    feel, waning diplomatic weight. The US  
    has tried to bring its voice, tried 
    to, you know, applying sanctions,  
    backing talks. But it’s not adequate in 
    terms of the response, in terms of even  
    getting some sort of actionability. The two 
    generals do not feel compelled to respect  
    what the US is calling for and that says a 
    lot about its own power and its own weight.
    I think there’s been unwillingness by the 
    two parties, that is the army and the RSF,  
    to agree on a ceasefire or a settlement of the 
    conflict because, one, the RSF believes that  
    it’s about to win the war. The second thing is 
    the army has demanded that before any progress  
    is made or an agreement is reached the RSF 
    should be pushed back. The army also cannot  
    agree to a ceasefire. That allows the RSF sweeping 
    powers of control of many parts of the country.
    So no talks yet, and even talks about 
    talks feel like a distant perspective.  
    Getting everyone in the same room would be an 
    achievement in itself. Our Sudanese journalist  
    Amal al-Hassan says there’s an important 
    omission from the list of participants – the  
    journalists themselves. The people with the best 
    understanding of the situation on the ground.
    The journalists, they didn’t get involved in the 
    peace negotiation and ceasefire and this is not  
    good. We have to be there, we have to participate 
    and be a witness for what has happened really,  
    because everyone shares a part of the story 
    from his point of view. No-one tells the truth.  
    As a Sudanese journalist, we are all facing a 
    problem in getting information. The army side,  
    they just want to put their statement in their 
    official page and we just have to take that. I  
    sent them a message to the spokesman of the 
    SAF several time, I sent him message and he  
    never respond. Also the RSF, he has people 
    responsible for the media. When you ask them,  
    they never answer your questions. Both sides are 
    hating us. They don’t like journalists. I don’t  
    think we feel secure inside Sudan. Too many of our 
    colleagues get killed or kidnapped or arrested.  
    And if you are a journalist and woman this is very 
    bad situation because woman are target also by  
    sexual violence and by attacking her or family. So 
    the situation of journalists is very bad in this  
    war. So that is why I decide to save myself and 
    my family. I’m a single mum and I have two kids.
    What Amal describes is the near impossible 
    task of bringing the unimaginable suffering  
    in Sudan to the attention of the world. 
    And there are fears that no resolution  
    could lead to a deepening of the conflict. 
    Moses has a few thoughts about the future.
    There have been reports of communities mobilising 
    to protect communities and that is also adding to  
    the angst and the worry about Sudan. There is 
    a possibility of a protracted conflict in the  
    country, in a situation where the army and 
    the RSF are in a deadlock. The collapse of  
    the army is another possibility. The next 
    scenario is the RSF taking control of the  
    country. The third thing is about the success 
    of the peace talks. If the Saudi and the IGAD,  
    the disjointed peace initiatives are brought 
    together, and the influential players are asked to  
    help push for a peace agreement – that seems like 
    a possibility that many people are keen on and  
    think that could work. The other scenario which 
    is the army wins. There have been reports that  
    the army could be considering mobilising militias 
    and other fighters in its fight against the RSF.
    Bev said at the start that Sudan is 
    important. Moses spells out why – in  
    addition to it being currently the largest 
    humanitarian crisis – Sudan matters globally.
    Sudan sits in a very critical geo-strategic 
    location. It’s a gateway to Horn of Africa and  
    it’s also the gateway to central and the Sahel. 
    If you look at the countries that neighbour Sudan,  
    they are a number of unstable countries, so 
    South Sudan, dealing with its own civil war,  
    CAR which has had long-running sectarian war. 
    You’ve got Libya and the divisions there,  
    Ethiopia which is recovering from their 
    recent conflicts and a very important country,  
    Chad. Chad is so connected to Sudan, in a sense 
    that the refugees who were fleeing Darfur are  
    entering Chad; the same communities live on 
    both sides of the border. We had a coup in Chad,  
    which triggered this pivot to Russia by the 
    new military junta. The main concern is that  
    Chad provides this security firewall. If you’re 
    travelling from West Africa and the Sahel coming  
    to East Africa through the desert, Chad is used 
    to be traditionally the country that was leading  
    counter terrorism efforts. If the conflict in 
    Sudan gets out of hand and sucks in Chad and  
    instabilities registered in Chad – it means that 
    firewall is gone. It allows the jihadists who  
    are present and active in all the region from the 
    Sahel near Mauritania, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali,  
    a free rein to travel across if they wanted 
    to connect with the jihadists in East Africa,  
    including al-Shabab in Somalia. It 
    also means criminal gangs across  
    the desert in Sahara and the Sahel could 
    also exploit this situation if there was  
    state failure in Sudan – number one, to traffic 
    weapons like gun-running and also to facilitate  
    the illegal trade in moving people, migrants, 
    through to Europe through the Mediterranean.
    The day before I met Amal in Nairobi, 
    she told me she applied for refugee  
    status. It felt like an expression of 
    her fears for the future of her country.
    We have to stop the hate speech because 
    it became very loud and loud and if the  
    people start to kill each other 
    because of the colour of skin,  
    because of which tribe you belong to, this 
    will be like the end of Sudan like we know it.
    There’s no deficit of gloomy 
    prospects all round. But  
    occasionally our experts see a glimmer of hope. 
    There was a tweet by one of 
    the very vocal activists on X  
    and they were talking about the Africa Cup of 
    Nations and the fact that it is being hosted by  
    Cote d’Ivoire and Cote d’Ivoire had been through 
    its own civil war and she said something like,  
    you know, there might still be hope for Sudan. 
    And voices like that probably need to be heard  
    more. If you have not followed Afcon – Ivory 
    Coast did win the tournament, against the odds.
    Thank you to all our contributors 
    – Beverly Ochieng, Sumaya Baksh,  
    Deka Barrow, Moses Rono, Ahmed Mohammed Abdi and 
    Amal al-Hassan. The producer is Kriszta Satori,  
    technical production by Elchin 
    Suleymanov, mixing by Nick Scripps,  
    our editor is Judy King and I’m Krassi 
    Twigg. Thank you for giving us your time.

    As Sudan marks a year of war with no end in sight, it’s facing the largest humanitarian and displacement crisis in the world.

    Click here to subscribe to our channel 👉🏽 https://bbc.in/3VyyriM

    There are fears that if not stopped, the conflict could further destabilise an already volatile region. We try to piece together the picture from the few trusted sources that are left on the ground – journalists working in hiding and in constant danger. And a warning – there are distressing details. This episode was first broadcast on 13 April.

    00:00 Introduction
    03:44 Sudan factfile
    06:02 Sudan’s 2018 protests and the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir
    09:47 Sudan’s 2023 civil war
    11:14 Challenges for journalists
    14:48 Who are the warring parties?
    19:05: War of narratives
    24:10 International players
    26:25 Competing interests among regional actors
    29:27 Peace efforts
    36:03 Why Sudan matters?
    38:18 Conclusion

    Watch more episodes of the Global Jigsaw here 👉🏽 https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLz_B0PFGIn4fK2XXqsOE-zcX_7R7gOklU

    Producer: Kriszta Satori
    Presenter: Krassi Twigg
    Editor: Judy King
    Original music: Pete Cunningham
    Sound engineer: Nick Scripps
    Video producer: Suniti Singh

    —————-

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