Energy Security and Geopolitics Conference | AM Session

Energy Security and Geopolitics Conference | AM Session

good morning everyone and welcome to
csis my name is Max Bergman I am the
director of the stort center in the
Europe Russia Eurasia program uh and on
behalf of my colleague Joseph mikat
who’s the director of the energy
security and climate change program and
also my my partner in crime uh and
helping uh co-host this event and on
this project that we are doing on
European energy security uh we are
delighted to welcome you to csis to the
2024 energy security and geopolitics
conference
uh there is clearly much to discuss uh
for decades leaders within the European
Union thought that interdependence with
Russia would serve to bring sources of
energy through energy uh and through
trade would bring Russia closer to
European values and practices Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022
upended that Paradigm more broadly it
made clear that energy could also be
used as a geopolitical weapon uh as
Russia throttled gas suppli into Europe
there was immediate consensus in the
aftermath of Russia’s initial full-scale
Invasion uh in the early spring and
summer of 20122 that European countries
would face a severe recession and would
struggle to keep the heat on Europe
looked at that winter of 2022 2023 with
great trepidation but we now look back
two years on from Russia’s fullscale
Invasion with Europe having come through
uh another winter uh quite successfully
and Europe demonstrating its resilience
uh that we need to look back in some
ways reassess what’s happened over the
last two years and also look forward on
what uh what do we take from the War uh
in Ukraine from its effects what impacts
on geopolitics what impacts on our
energy security one thing is clear is
that Europe’s response has reoriented
Europe’s energy map and it has also made
the US European relationship even more
vital than it was before the conflict
today we’re here to take stock of the
last two years uh there’s and there’s
much to discuss and with us today we
have two excellent uh speakers to to
kick off uh our conversation we’ll
follow that with uh four panels
comprised of leaders from government the
private sector and the Think Tank
Community uh and so uh it is my real
honor and privilege to to be launching
this conference um and I also want to
thank the Public Power Corporation of
Greece thank you so much for your
support in enabling this conference and
the work that we are doing here at csis
uh we are incredibly excited to
undertake this important work um we’re
honored to have with us today Jeffrey
Patt Who currently serves as the US
assistant Secretary of State for energy
resources Ambassador Patt was previously
served as US ambassador to Greece uh and
formerly uh ambassador to Ukraine from
2013 to 2016 uh and there’s no one
better positioned I think to talk about
energy security both uh in in the wake
of the the conflict uh that we’re seeing
in Ukraine but also the current Dynamics
uh in in uh Global markets today
following remarks from assistant
secretary P we also receive an opening
address from Mr Georgio stasus the
current chairman and CEO of the Public
Power Corporation or PPC Mr stasus has
been a driving force in the renewable
energy industry for over a decade having
previously been been at anel green power
and thank you Mr sasus uh for being here
today he’s sort of at the Pinnacle of
having to make decisions uh in a very
Dynamic uh energy environment and we are
really delighted to have him and
following the address we’ll kick it off
with our first panel uh post crisis
energy geopolitics the session will last
about an hour and will feature a Q&A
portion during the last 15 minutes of
the panel so with that let me uh please
join me in uh welcoming ambassador Patt
uh to the stage Ambassador thank you
thank you very much Max and let me
congratulate both you and Joseph on this
new program which I think really orients
us around a critically important set of
issues at the heart of our transatlantic
security
relationship I also want to thank and
congratulate uh yoro stasis for the role
that PPC is playing in this exercise and
personally as somebody who got to know
PPC first as as Ambassador in Greece
it’s incredibly exciting to see the
company’s
transformation into a real leader in the
clean energy transition across Europe
but also and I think this goes to the
the broader story of Greece’s strategic
transformation um a leader in The Wider
region uh with new investments in
Romania and and a very ambitious
Regional Vision um we had an ear ear
discussion over breakfast and I said I
was struggling to figure out what I
could say that would be new and novel
for such a well-informed audience but I
thought what I would do uh this morning
is just to share four quick points which
I would suggest would be useful for
framing the research agenda uh for Max
and Joseph’s new project uh the first
comes from a my last foray to Europe and
Europe is the biggest part of my job as
you our assistant secretary but I had
the honor two weeks ago to be in vus
Lithuania as the head of the US
delegation for the 3C Summit and um it
was as always really useful to be back
in the European Union um it was slightly
painful because we were there gathering
in villance on a beautiful spring day on
the same morning as Russia’s largest
single wave of air strikes on Ukraine
since the beginning of the fullscale
invasion um um president zilinski was
there and I thought spoke with great
confidence but also impatience and and
obviously what’s happening in Congress
this week is is a huge uh confidence
contributor in that context I was also
quite struck um by the leadership that
President NOA of Lithuania provided for
the 3c’s meeting and in particular his
very strong focus on how we collectively
should think about leveraging the 3c’s
framework um in the context of our
Collective interest in seeing uh both
Ukraine and mova successfully nav
Navigate um the road to European union
membership and the the difficult reforms
but also the structural changes that
that will require um there were for me
sort of three big takeaways from the
vnus discussions one was a very strong
consensus um that we all need to be
doing more uh to support Ukraine in the
context of this brutal and unprovoked
full-scale Invasion but also for our
European colleagues to really prioritize
the work that needs to be done to
accelerate Ukraine’s EU accession which
is the the real prize that the Ukrainian
people have been fighting for for 10
years now and will be one of the shest
routs to Ukraine’s long-term security
and prosperity um the second takeaway
for me was a very very strong focus on
energy and in particular the opportunity
and the imperative for the 3 C’s region
um to build a diverse and secure Energy
System which means more Renewables um
the literal rewiring of the European
Energy System and I’ll I’ll come back to
that in a minute um and in this regard
and in the context of uh ppc’s
participation today I was really struck
by the leadership that prime minister
mitsotakis provided on behalf of Greece
um some of this I think reflected um his
recent travel to uh to Ukraine including
to Odessa where he described to me the
experience of being targeted along with
President zalinsky by a Russian missile
attack um but also I think his strong uh
belief um and his commitment to our
transatlantic Alliance and the
understanding that the success of our
Collective Enterprise in Ukraine is
vitally connected to The credibility and
durability of the the NATO alliance um
and the the test that Vladimir Putin is
presenting with us um and then the third
uh big takeaway for me was uh the very
strong focus on what Greece has been
calling the vertical Corridor uh we
talked about that a little bit this
morning also with the Bulgarian
Ambassador but essentially the the
concept here is to help to further
diversify energy
energy uh delivery in Southeastern and
Central Europe by
repurposing um Legacy uh pipeline
infrastructure and the former trans
Balan pipeline which used to deliver
Russian gas to the South and redirecting
that to leverage the uh regas capacity
in Greece and Turkey um new
infrastructure like the tap pipeline the
igb pipeline the investment in that our
development Finance Corporation is
making in the cheerin gas storage uh in
Bulgaria um and the very strong Focus
from Romania on being a conduit uh for
not just uh the delivery of of gas but
also over the longer term uh clean
hydrogen and and green electricity
upward into Central Europe into
countries like Hungaria Austria um and
Slovakia which still depend significant
on Russian energy um and to accelerate
uh Europe’s decoupling from Russian
supplies um so very excited about the
possibilities there and it was my
opportunity to convey strong us support
for this concept which is and this
brings me to my second Point part of a
of a much larger rewiring of Europe’s
Energy System in the aftermath of
Russia’s weaponization of its energy
resources rewiring of grids of pipeline
mines and Supply chains and I think this
points to one of the unheralded success
stories of our Collective response to
Russia’s full-scale Invasion and perhaps
one of the the only happy aspects of the
tragedy of the past two and two years
and some um and that has been Russia’s
extraordinarily uh shortsighted action
in weaponizing uh its energy resources
which then incentivized Europe to uh
decouple from Russian supplies I think
much much faster um than anyone would
have predicted in February of
2022 um Russia has decisively proven
itself to be an unreliable supplier of
energy that will choose to weaponize its
energy resources as a tool of political
coercion one of the European ambassadors
at our breakfast this morning talked
about this as one of Europe’s strategic
mistakes and I think today we’re in an
environment where Russia is never again
going to be seen as a reliable supplier
of energy and and and where Europe’s
transition away from Russian energy has
progressed much faster uh than predicted
and marks a really permanent shift in
the International Energy map um it’s
part of my job to ensure that as
European importing companies turn away
uh from Russia and turn to more reliable
suppliers that there are very limited
opportunities for Russia to secure new
markets so if you look at some of the
numbers um in 2023 Russian natural gas
represented only 133% of EU Supply that
number has declined since then compared
to 40% in 2021 and I was reading this
morning a report of some comments by the
Swedish foreign minister uh speculating
on the 14th sanctions package which the
EU will soon adopt and in particular his
expectation of additional restrictive
measures on Russian LNG as long as well
as a very strong focus on anti-
circumvention measures much like the bid
Administration has done as we’ve moved
into phase two of the price cap policy
uh to focus on shippers companies
insurance providers uh that are
circumventing or mis declaring their
attestations in the context of the price
cap um the iea which is the best source
of data on these issues projects that
Russia’s share of internationally traded
natural gas which stood at 30% in 2021
will fall to 15% by 203
2030 and that Russia’s net revenue from
natural gas sh sales will fall from
around hundred billion do to less than
$40 billion in
2030 these shifts are resulting in real
long-term losses for the Russian
Federation in terms of both its Global
energy influence and the energy revenues
that it uses to prosecute the war the
other irony of course is that Russia’s
actions have also incentivized Europe to
significantly accelerate its own energy
transition and in this regard Greece is
a wonderful example it’s become a true
leader in Europe in Renewables and is
regularly recognized as such by the
European commission and I had the
opportunity at cop 28 in Dubai to be on
a panel with Greece’s um Deputy energy
minister Alexander suduku and the EU
director General uh for energy D
Jorgenson and it was enormously
heartening for me to hear the admiration
that director General Jorgenson
expressed for Greece’s performance in
this regard and in part in particular
the fact that Greece quite remarkably is
on track to have an energy system which
by 2030 is 80% uh reliant on renewable
sources an extraordinary transformation
in a real achievement and PPC has been
part of the story including with its
expansion recently into Romania with a
Renewables portfolio there its plans for
additional projects across Southeast
Europe and and really its role providing
an example of how um utility companies
across Europe are are looking to uh
redraw energy Maps um to accelerate
deployment of Renewable Power and to
create the grids and interconnect
connections that are necessary for that
power to be not only affordable but also
reliable
um third point and I’ll I’ll get through
the next two quickly and finish up uh
the us is going to keep pressure on
Russia um sanctions are having a real
impact um in the LG space which I’ve
already talked about you can look at
novatech Russia’s largest producer of
LNG which is recently had to suspend
production at its Arctic lng2
liquefaction facility in part because of
San that the Biden Administration has
led Arctic LG2 is a critical piece of
Russia’s strategy to try to capture 20%
of the global LG Market uh we’re going
to keep tightening the screws we’re
going to continue to designate a broad
range of entities involved in
development of other Key Energy projects
Future Energy projects as well and
Associated infrastructure including the
VTO oil project the usluga LNG terminal
and the yakutia gas project our
sanctions are targeting entities
involved in the procurement of materials
and advanced technology for future
energy projects and the um service
providers which are essential to
Russia’s hope to grow its future
capacity uh we’re also continuing to see
the price cap policy constraining
Russian revenues while limiting uh the
impact of Russia’s weaponization of its
energy on global prices and in this
regard we are 100% aligned with the
European Union coordinating closely with
the EU and all of our other G7 Partners
including importantly Japan um and so
this is a success um the last point I
will make um and I know this is going to
be at the heart of the project that csis
will be pursuing is our understanding of
energy as a core element of our overall
transatlantic security
relationship um we are
and a big part of my job is leveraging
America’s energy abundance to advance U
US national SEC security including our
support to allies and partners around
the world with the help and led by us
industry We are continuing to support
Europe through our exports of LNG which
helped the EU to reach record levels of
natural gas storage prior to this winter
and which will continue to be a core
element of Europe’s energy security
we’re currently exporting a total of 124
billion cubic meters of LG per year
globally and there’s another roughly 120
BCM per year of capacity that is
currently under construction and will
come online by 2030 these are projects
which are fully permitted which are
fully invested and are going to happen
so what you are going to see is the
United States as the world’s largest and
unrivaled provider of LNG for years and
years to come at the same time as we
have become a major exporter of crude
oil and this is one facet of our overall
energy abundance the other is America’s
continued leadership through the
acceleration of our energy transition
catalyzed by the inflation reduction act
which is driving billions of dollars of
new investment and is keeping American
companies at the Forefront in terms of
shaping the hybrid Energy System of the
future through mechanis like the US EU
energy Council which we hosted at the
state department just a couple of weeks
ago we’re supporting European efforts to
end dependence on Russian fossil fuels
while at the same time increasing
efficiency and accelerating the clean
energy transition so we are a th%
aligned on these issues there’s one last
issue that I will leave Max with you and
with Joseph as you think about the scope
of your your work ahead and that’s the
crit iCal importance of continuing to
work on the diversification of energy
supplies as the United States has
championed for several decades now and
in particular we need to make sure that
we don’t replace an era of dependence on
Russian fossil fuels with dependence on
critical minerals and critical mineral
processing in the People’s Republic of
China so we can’t allow to be repeated
in emerging sectors like clean hydrogen
and wind power and electric vehicles
what has already happen in solar where
China has achieved an overwhelming
Monopoly on the supply chains that makes
it very very hard to De develop a
diverse uh supply chain including uh
important participation here in the
United States by American companies so
Europe is an essential partner in this
effort because we’re both pursuing this
transition because there are billions of
dollars of investment flowing both
directions across the Atlantic and I
think we want to continue to stay
focused as well on this aspect of our
energy security relationship even as we
work as hard as we possibly can to
ensure Ukraine’s Victory and a strategic
defeat for Vladimir Putin so um I very
much look forward to the results of this
project and wish you a very successful
conference today thank you very
[Applause]
much thank you Ambassador Patt um it’s
now my my honor and privilege to Welcome
to the podium Mr Georgio stasus the
current chairman and CEO of the Public
Power Corporation for another keynote
address thank
you
so honorable assistant secretary
Ambassador payat distinguished guest yes
ladies and gentlemen good
morning first of all I’d like to thank
Ambassador payat for all the support and
attention and the collaboration we have
had and still have uh both in your past
capacity as Ambassador in Greece but
also in your current role and the
numerous projects we are pursuing
together in the area then I’d like to
thank Dr hamr and the team of csis for
the very interesting event you have
organized and uh for all the project we
are starting today and then I’d like to
thank all of you for attending and
joining our our our our discussion
today today’s conversation comes at a
very critical time for the energy sector
and our
world on one side we have the alarming
effects of climate change calling for
multidimensional adaptation and
mitigation strategies on the other there
is an increase in inly challenging task
of ensuring security of supply for our
Industries and households is not only
the imperative need of addressing each
of these challenges that affect us but
most importantly their
intersection how do we ensure we have a
planet that we can live without
compromising access to Affordable energy
at all times how do we map out our way
forward there is no doubt that
geopolitics and political stability is a
prerequisite for energy security and
vice versa this was a hard lesson we
learned in Europe from the recent
geopolitical and energy crisises and
came at high cost it pushed us through
to reconsider the definition of security
of
Supply the definition of energy security
has evolved over time from a centuries
long definition of using domestic
resources to satisfy domestic energy
needs to the 20th century definition
where commercial Partnerships without
with countries having abundance of
energy resources are a critical success
factor the exponential growth of
fuel-free Clean Energy Technologies over
the past 15 years is key to a climate
safe world at the same time homegrown
renewable energy generation increases
energy
security there are limitations though to
how to how far a country can go with its
own renewal
potential and this is where flexibility
comes into play Energy Systems have to
be flexible to ensure stability
reliability and cost efficiency
flexibility is coming from both power
assets like batteries and gas plants and
critical infrastructure including
resilient power grids and
interconnections between
countries this sift to clean energy
brings new complexities to security of
Supply a whole new set of factors such
as the availability and management of
critical raw materials manufacturing
capacity of clean Technologies and
availability of supply chain is now
emerging as
priorities in our part of the world
Southeast Europe we have energy systems
with a great range of conditions from a
less gas import dependent Romania to a
significantly dependent Bulgaria
countries that have both a fast-paced
economic growth
and still significant affordability
issues countries with major energy
transformations like Greece to more
inertial ones in the western Balkans
finally from stable political
environment to EU members to to change
to to other dangerous hybrid War
conditions such as in
UNG despite these complexities PPC being
an integrated utility and leader in
clean energy
development critical infastructure and
Energy Services is best position to
drive the energy transition in southeast
Europe we know how to develop Renewables
and flexible capacity fast how to expand
and modernize power grids and finally
how to meet customers demand at an
affordable
price we also know the importance of
Partners and overall what it takes for a
power system to transition while being
secure this is our mission and the main
driver behind all our decisions
including our investments in alexandr an
area that is becoming of Paramount
importance for the energy security of
Europe and the acquisition of the assets
of anel in Romania which made us the
largest Power Group in the region with a
with a diversified
portfolio there is no doubt that
security is at the front and center of
the unfolding energy transition and the
transition happens in real time every
hour of every day of every year we have
to keep the lights on while massively
Transforming Our Energy System to be
successful while building a safe Energy
System in Europe strong Partnerships are
needed and the cooperation between
Europe and the United States is a
critical one I believe the journey
together is a much safer Journey while
the individual one is more dangerous
than ever at PPC we are committed to to
being a force of stability while driving
energy transition forward to achieve
that the contribution of our partners
including the including the
transatlantic ones should expand as more
synergies are ahead than behind us in
this new energy world I’m looking
forward to the potential discussions
that are following thank you very much
[Laughter]
great thank you Mr stasus thank you
Ambassador Patt uh it’s now my honor to
welcome uh Joseph miket my my partner in
crime uh to the stage as well as the
fellow panelists uh for uh our first
panel discussion Joseph over to you
[Music]
Ambassador Mr sis for kicking us off I
am uh really excited to be hosting the
first panel right before lunch
um but uh you know I think we can tell
by by in person as well as the audience
online that that we’re dealing with core
issues for Washington and for Europe
today and and I could not be more
grateful that the three of you are here
to talk about uh the the changing the
the shifting considerations in in energy
markets the changing geopolitics of
energy you know when we when the
European energy crisis really got severe
following the Russian invasion of
Ukraine we spent a lot of time here at
csis trying to think through okay how do
you improve energy security
how do you do that without backtracking
on climate um and it feels like for the
last two years we’ve seen a lot of
changes in Europe that have tried to
address those two challenges and one
thing I want to walk away from this
panel today is is each of your expert
opinions on kind of where you see that
conversation continuing right if you
know it the conversation can be that at
the moment things can look a little
triumphant but what do we need to be
wary of what do policy makers need to be
wary of in the coming years as we
continue to try to manage these two
challenges so from each of you that’s
kind of like my goal to extract that
from you um is part of the conversation
so let me introduce for those of you who
are joining us my panelists um directly
to my left uh Amy Meers Jeffy is the
professor of global Affairs at NYU she’s
a top scholar in global energy
geopolitics issues related to climate
change and energy security um there are
very few people who’ve got the depth
that Amy has on on the issues that we’re
addressing today Alex andos patus is uh
Deputy CEO of PPC he’s had an
international career in it and business
Consulting and and is is helping uh it
can help us understand how Europe is
looking uh at this transition from from
the business perspective and on the very
end is Sam Moses who is head of
fundamentals at energy aspects um a
longtime friend of our program and
formerly held a post at the NSC helping
the administration make choices with
respect to energy security and climate
change across a wide variety of energy
issues so you can tell that they’re all
going to be able to bring uh key
insights to these questions alexandros
maybe we can start with
you here’s I’ll give you the the year
I’ll give you the Washington Vision okay
on how the last couple years went and
you can correct it or augment it as you
see
fit um after after the Russian invasion
Ukraine there was this energy Cris is
kicked off um uslg as we now are a lot
of people in Washington are really
familiar play key role in making sure
that the lights stayed on um but there’s
also been a bunch of changes that I
think are less well understood with
respect to um uh building out Renewables
but like I I’ll give you the I’ll give
you the I’ll give you the cynic view
right Europe had made a bunch of bunch
of mistakes they had forgotten nuclear
power they overly dependent on Russian
gas they had to go back to Coal um you
know what what do you what do you think
Washington needs to understand about
where Europe is today
and and from and the sort of activities
at PPC you know how do they how are they
good examples of where you think the
alignment of energy security
decarbonization really can
happen so I think the the most important
point is we should consider this as a
wakeup call can’t hear you uh I’m not
sure is the mic did your yeah is it on
can you hear me out there down there
yeah maybe I’ll bring it a bit closer is
that better okay all right let me just
stuck all right so I think it was uh we
we can classify it as a wakeup call I
think all of these points that you
mentioned you know we were fragmented
everyone have a different understanding
a different view a different position
within the energy Market when suddenly
uh we were all
collectively uh forced with taking the
very difficult tasks and questions as to
what do we do now uh once that Invasion
happened it created two fundamental
things one it brought us all
together with one very very specific
goal how do we get through this without
actually damaging Europe as a whole
whether it was the society the people
the economy and so on and so forth the
second thing was forced us to go deep
into ourselves and see what do we have
as assets what do we have at hand that
we can bring out and depending on this
cre a new strategy create a new
structure so I think these two are very
very fundamentals uh fundamental points
as part of the wakeup
call everything that we brought forward
um actually resided in things that we
hadn’t done in the past so we had to
look back and honestly and truthfully
say what is it that we didn’t do well
and what is it that we needed to
do I will also bring into scope
policymaking at that point it was very
clear that there had to to be consensus
and this actually forced people into a
dialogue forced people into a very very
strict time-based process where they
needed to come up with specific policies
that were enforceable immediately and
would help us get out of
this I think these are just some of the
emotional aspects that we had to go
through as Europe and Europeans in order
to get to the point where we are today
on the execution front uh it was very
clear that each country was at a
different point in that curve of having
to decouple let’s say from Russia and
basically manage the uh energy crisis as
as an outset from uh the Ukraine war so
each country had to come up with their
own road map and and uh looking at
Greece and PPC
specifically uh we were a very
integrated company we were deeply
dependent on coal although we were
looking to come out of that we had a
very strong but not enough of a
renewable footprint that could drive the
country but we did have some very strong
positions in holding uh energy reserves
in the form of gas which we could
capitalize on and also our strategic
location the country was at a point
where access to and from with respect to
LG because we had the uh the Cass was
was was an option and this is where we B
where we doubl down on and we banked so
we looked at how we could first of all
uh handle our own needs and then how we
could play a significant role in
enabling neighboring countries in
getting out of this situation so
basically we could route uh resources
from our country to them at the same
time
Renewables was something that again as I
said we doubled down so the Investments
uh were fast-tracked so the government
the state the policy makers made it very
easy or substantially easier commitments
were there we knew what we needed to
achieve how much of that we needed to
put in place and that’s what we drove
through and I think as a
company in conjunction with the state an
integral part of that for us was
technology yes there’s a lot of
infrastructure that needs to be built
but you need to somehow thread that back
into the grids in order for the grid to
be able to deliver on its promise one
thing that’s sort of sometimes not very
clear is energy or or in the form of
electricity and when we talk about grids
which is Cable in our minds has a very
substantial different way of Behaving
when we’re talking about
fuels right in the fuel world you need
to have access to fuel when you need it
you consume it when you don’t need it
you store it energy is not
stored you have to
produce at the same time with absolute
accuracy exactly the amount of energy
that you demand if that imbalance is off
by a little and I’m just sort of
overgeneralizing it your grid goes into
critical state which means you could
just sort of a blackout so technology
had to be pushed into the grids or let’s
say basically between the generation and
the grids in order to facilitate for
these imbalances so this was another uh
area where we doubled down and we uh we
invested significantly in that case so
energy sort of the in itself which was
going to take time to build had to be
offset by um technology and then so on
and so forth geographically we worked
through with our counterparts in Europe
to sort of help them um pick up whatever
access we could or we could become a
port of coal for them let me draw you
out on the technology question just
briefly um you know what what what are
you know what do you mean when you say
that are we talking sort of like smart
smart grid elements are we talking about
sort of smart th stats are we thinking
about Transformer thing Transformer
technology like what what are the key
things you think have been most
important good question I think these
are naturally the things that would come
into somebody’s mind but that when
you’re in a in a crisis situation where
it’s now there is absolutely no time for
you to even sit down comprehend and see
how you’re going to do this you need to
actually take measures which will allow
you to sort of address that problem so
what is it that we we sort of try to do
you need to become really good at demand
forecasting at that point you really
need to go back and look at your data so
data became an integral part we were
harvesting data from every part of the
organization wherever needed so that we
could create uh more accurate
predictions in what the demand was so
that part was very important obviously
managing data means you need to be able
to have the processing power and you be
you need to have the location for it so
we had to move into the cloud very
quickly and that was a very very
critical and integral part of the
strategy we moved as much much of that
infrastructure into the cloud so we
would able to take sort of the unlimited
capacity of data handling and processing
power for us to be able to do that well
the second thing was also working on
with with the state in order to sort of
give directional input to the people in
the country when and what type of energy
they should be able to sort of control
or sort of shift from one time period to
another so this would help sort of in
balancing that demand until we grew some
sort of technology behind it which we
still haven’t gotten that maturity when
this demand sort of response type of
activity can happen
automatically another part in the
technology space was using um some of
the elements from the data to
extract insights and insights in sort of
where do we have leakage where do we
have runaway energy if you like and and
try to sort of address some of those
pain points so I think technology data
cloud and significant modeling were I
think very integral for us to be able to
be well predictive against what we
needed as we knew that demand was was
coming in place obviously price is a
completely different matter uh you know
the policies are there but that’s what
we did in in in terms of the technology
oh that’s really interesting because
kind of like this kind of emergency
situation calls you to just be like much
more aware of correct everything that’s
happening we sort of lost this um the
the sense of comfort that had developed
um Amy let’s go to you because you know
we heard this picture of energy security
related to you know if you got a solar
panel nobody can really get in the way
of your energy system uh but of course
that’s not what really happens right we
think about a electrifying economy we’re
building larger and larger grids we’re
trying to take advantage of both the
efficiency of being able to move gener
move generation around to demand but
also there’s all sorts of sort of Geo
geographical uh uh factors that come
into play you know wind or wind in the
north of Europe for example sun in the
South here in the US wind in the midwest
some in the southwest but building that
kind of hard infrastructure invokes lots
of political and Technical challenges
and I know that you that’s something
you’ve been working on recently so like
how do you think about sort of switching
one set of dependencies to this other
set of dependencies which is related to
fixed infrastructure and how do we think
about both security and politics in that
context so I think the first step just
to like bring it back down to the most
Basics is to ask the question what is
kinetic today right okay so um when we
ask that question we kind of get a
slightly different answer than we might
have gotten two years ago because two
years ago everybody was like oh we don’t
have enough gas storage okay so now we
have too much gas in the United States
Europe has figured out that they have to
keep the gas in storage uh you’ve got
countries like India and Pakistan and
others felt that the volatility LG was
such that they don’t want to be
dependent on LG so now we kind of have a
little bit of a surplus in the market
right now so right now I mean unless
we’re going to put sanctions on Russian
LG and that might cause a little bit of
a stir you know that market is not the
kinetic Market even though that was two
years ago today we have a different set
of kinetic markets so I would argue that
oil is not as kinetic as it used to be
partly because of what we’re talking
about which is that I have all these
different things I can do I can uh hire
an Uber that’s an electric car I can um
I Can Shed My Transportation by using
e-commerce and then it’s you know some
e-commerce’s company’s problem about how
to get get fuel so I I I have ways as an
individual consumer to sort of shed my
connectivity and therefore the economies
in Europe in the United States
increasingly in China are decoupling a
bit from oil um and so I’m not saying it
wouldn’t be bad if we had a major energy
shock again from the oil side but but
there are like instantaneous things that
people can do we can you know do this
this event over Zoo right right where we
haven’t I think addressed enough
attention is on what is kinetic what is
kinetic in
electricity so Europe did a lot of
brilliant
maneuvering um to be able to balance
load between different countries taking
advantage of different weather systems
taking advantage of different resources
you’ve got some resources that are very
strong in Renewables other places that
weren’t you’ve got some places that
haven’t turned off their nuclear you’ve
got places that have coal that they
could put back back on temporarily
during the peak moment um but what we
found ourselves in is a situation where
suddenly NATO is having to police
interconnector wires um between
different countries in Europe we haven’t
thought about uh what are the pressure
points of those different
interconnectors and how electricity is
being traded or maybe we have now but
managing the complication the
geopolitical complication of making a
system where everybody has to have a
certain amount of backup generation and
we’re going to utilize it strategically
as an entity um is got this data
Challenge and and has physical
challenges and we have on top of that
the challenge that of course the way
Russia was kinetic in natural gas which
seems to at least for Europe having been
reduced uh now we have to worry about
Russia being kinetic in electricity
because we have three members of the
European Union who are still connected
to the Russian grid and therefore Russia
has some leverage leverage in in terms
of their control of frequency and
voltage and and you know like I think
this is actually really important as we
look forward because I I’m totally grid
pelled I think we’re going to build very
large grids I think that’s a key element
for for securing uh energy transition
but we I think we do need to be super
aware of the political and Technical
risk so you look at the sort of
decoupling from Russia or you think
about grid expansion what are the key
things that policym you know it’s easy
to revert to well Europe needs to raise
500 million 500 billion euros to build
this grid but like what what are the
security challenges that they need to be
that we need to be paying attention to I
I mean there there there’s they’re large
okay so the first thing is you’re not
you know we’re building all these
capability and cyber offensive
capability but my ability to even
leverage that is 100% dependent on my
ability to show that I can defend my own
grds right right so to the extent that
the United States has sort of a crummy
aged grid um that’s already a problem
for us in providing support uh to Europe
because that’s a leverage Point um and
then uh then there’s governance systems
so EU is doing a very good job they have
the experience of the Nord pool like how
do I what is the governance for running
this very expanded grid uh who gets the
deci side who’s the Hub uh how do we
manage that how do we manage the burden
of adding generation versus adding um um
transmission who pays how do we how do
we distribute that fairly without
letting somebody Free Ride by having no
generation and just buying all the
generation from everybody else so those
issues I mean Europe is doing a good job
trying to work out those issues
systematically um I you know before I
was coming here I think I sent you a
tweet I saw that was really whatever
because I’ve written some papers a
chapter in a book that’s obscure that’s
hard to find but you know some articles
more recently on in this new world where
maybe you know oil sea Lanes will
become less I mean they’re still
extremely important but we have these
other ways of sort of coping with that
you know what is the US role in this
more globalized electricity system um
and especially in helping Europe uh with
its own security so you know NATO has
AIS Vision now that goes around and you
know uses all kinds of technology to try
to protect these undersea
interconnectors but what are the other
things should the United States be
stockpiling batteries and deers that we
would deploy in an emergency instead of
having or in addition to the spr should
the United States um focus more and more
on Cyber you know what are the things
that the United States needs to do and
so interestingly I complet Ely
eliminated the idea that the United
States would build a cable under the
Atlantic to come to Europe because that
just seemed like physically not
physically impossible because you know
the telegraph we did that you know
hundreds of years ago but you know just
seemed economically like not viable but
indeed it’s been announced that one of
the things we’re looking at is having
transatlantic trade in electricity which
would be you know pretty interesting uh
Challenge and of course the project is
not going to have one con interconnector
they’re going to have multiple uh cables
so so we’re really moving into like a
new world when we think about you know
what is a global grid you know China’s
already thought about you know having a
global grid and um uh they’re not too
too far along but but they are a premier
in funding and assisting uh the global
South with renewable energy and uh other
kinds of uh power power plants so uh an
interesting space geopolitically Oh I’m
I’m yeah like the idea of this like
Global Mega grid is very interesting but
will I think it will require some
delicate political maneuvering um one of
the things I think you didn’t mention
but is really important we’re going to
talk about it later today I just want to
pin in for the audience is the supply
chains right yeah so you know where is
all of this great infrastructure being
built not just like physically where is
it built but also where are we buying
the the Transformers from where does the
where do the step equipment come from
and and you know kind of what is you
know how do you develop a secure supply
chain both in terms of like the ability
to access and build that stuff out
quickly but also you know cyber security
and other issues so I like we’re very
keen to to think about that and let me
just so we level set for the rest of the
day yeah make this distinction that
sometimes gets lost in the memes that
different parts of the energy sector put
out okay if you buy gasoline today and
tomorrow somebody you know blew up the
colonial pipeline or something like that
the gasoline you use today is not
available tomorrow once you use it it’s
gone you have to have new Supply if you
have a lithium battery in your car you
have that battery you know 10 years
right so the supply chain issue is a
little bit different right the supply
chain issue is partly related to the
pace of possible scale up um it’s partly
related
to um somebody’s economy being farther
ahead uh in what’s going to be the
future market so there’s a sort of a
competitiveness
issue um but people talk about the metal
supply chain the way they talk about oil
and it’s really not the same I mean in
the end if we were just suddenly cut off
from lithium right which remember India
just had a giant find and we have
lithium here in the United States but
let’s just say like it would take a year
to put together a mining operation and
then you know blah blah blah the way
that processing too I mean let’s not
forget that you still physically have
the metal and that I don’t know how long
it takes to build recycling plants but
instantaneously overnight that would be
the first business in an emergency that
everyone would go into that you know doe
is doing a good job greenlighting
federal funds into Recycling and let me
just say you know some of the biggest
Metal Traders in the world Glen cor Vall
investing in recycling right so I think
I just feel like I need to make that
point as we go forward not saying it’s
not a problem right but just
understanding the time scale of the
problem yeah right and understanding
that the time scale of the problem is
very different than the time scale of
oil thankfully the security
considerations for like the mineral
supply chain or the equipment supply
chain for electrification being
different is just Full Employment
Program for Think Tank people right
that’s actually quite good for us uh but
I totally agree like we not all of the
same everybody in the audience knows
that the United States is the Premier
supplier of Transformer Transformer
manufacturing but that is something know
we talk about all these things the
United States is leading in that is one
of the things we lead in and Conference
had a little difficulty trying to Target
that as being an important sector um
with funding and you know it’s an
important sector yeah yeah I yeah
completely agree um let’s let’s go to
Samra who’s quietly P quietly and
patiently waiting at the end of the of
the of the DI but you know I I’m I
really given your experience uh as a as
a sort of Global Market analyst I think
it’d be really great to start with you
know your thoughts on how the shifting
geopolitics and and energy security are
are are expressing themselves in global
markets we heard from Ambassador Patt
right us and and the global Community
need to keep pressure up on Russia you
know like you know are we you
know what do you see as kind of key key
points way points over the last couple
years and then like for the future you
know as we as we emphasize energy
Security in these other and new ways how
how does our changing in how did
changing considerations
how do energy security considerations
change in in like kind of the the the
global system absolutely thank you
Joseph and uh it’s great to be here
again and um it’s funny I I’ll actually
recall a conversation I had in the
hallway right there about two and a half
years ago two years ago and um I was
speaking with an analyst who’s not in
the room but is usually here very good
analyst and um and I was at treasury
then and the war had had started and
things were things were hot and he said
you know sammer I really think about
this time as the age of government
intervention in energy markets and um I
remember taking that sentence and
thinking about it and going back to my
job and sitting at desk at Treasury and
whatnot and um and it has stuck with me
ever since and I think he was right he
was absolutely right I think we’ve
entered this period of of government
intervention in energy Market and I
don’t say that with a negative
connotation in fact I say it with a
positive connotation I think um it’s a
time where this crisis occurred and it
and it really highlighted concerns
around energy security and we saw rapid
fast I think the words you said were um
immediate and enforceable action and
that’s exactly right it’s like that’s
what we did right we did it as as fast
as we could and we did it as effectively
as we could and I think we’ve seen the
results of that right if you think about
you know natural gas $5 in the two years
before the war five to six times that in
the two years during when since the war
started now we’re back below $10 here at
energy aspects where I work now and we
look at forward pricing you know we
think we’re going to stay below 10 far
below 10 um going into the future
through the through the end of this
decade I mean to say and um and I think
so it’s easy to think that we’re through
the crisis and we don’t need to worry
about the crisis all that government
intervention work oh yeah yeah success
check mark but I think in reality um we
have two crisises at the same time and
the first one is the one that that that
my that my panelist colleagues are
rightfully highlighting and that’s the
one of the electricity driven energy
transition and how we get that right um
and that’s a very very very hard needle
to thread um and I think Amy is making
some excellent points around even the
security of power grits um but the other
side we have this reality that to many
people we’re through the woods like the
crisis is over don’t worry but it just
unfortunately it’s not right I mean and
I think um it doesn’t take a crisis to
show that we can just think about the
Red Sea for example over the last couple
months and what we’ve seen occur there
and what that did to concerns about
European Diesel and and and that happens
in the context of a global energy Market
that is no longer uh one market you know
it’s not two markets but it’s it’s a
market that has a lot of um intricacies
to it and who’s going to trade with who
and who’s willing to buy with who and
who’s going to refine to send to who and
I think those that that that is still a
crisis that we need to think about so
when we think about the pendulum we
swung really far uh in the energy
security crisis we did a bunch of stuff
we did the price cap we did uh we did we
pushed LG into Europe you know so we’ve
risk swinging too far back this way and
we really need to be in the middle and
keep in mind things that things like uh
like Europe still needs refining
capacity right it’s it’s not like it’s
not like the oil demand goes away
tomorrow right you know what I mean and
I think um same same thing goes with how
we address it so we go back to the age
of government intervention we’ve seen a
lot of the things we’ve done so far as a
Supply push top down right we’ve seen
Russia you do this or you can’t buy this
you can’t sell that or so forth and so
on and I think you know that that you
know again I’ve I’ve left the White
House and I don’t know what’s coming but
I think if we think about the next lever
lever as they say in Europe I live in
London now so I have to I have to to say
it that way they um they it’s uh it’s it
has to be consumer-driven and we start
thinking about how government
intervention can can can change action
from the bottom up now the the problem
there or the concern there is that we
cannot forget the macroeconomic
considerations of our current life I
mean I I know my power bill has gone up
right and I think like that’s something
I think we can all you move to Europe or
just general I would say in general it’s
pretty bad there but you know it’s not
it’s not easy here either and I think I
think we can all agree on on those kind
of considerations are are important when
we think about the age of government
intervention in reducing consumer Demand
right and um in that sense Europe is the
hot bit where we see a lot of populist
kind of pressures um pushing against the
actions we have to take to secure the
grid to push forward the the transition
because of these cost of living um
issues so I think uh to kind of bring
these things together and when we think
about the geopolitical context um
layering all I mean layering the
geopolitical context on top of all this
I go back to what Ambassador P said and
um you know he’s rightfully noting that
uh there are still very serious
geopolitical tensions between major
Powers um and it’s not just oil it’s not
just like where’s Russian oil going it’s
also about where are our power supply
chain resources being resourced and how
do we think about that moving forward
and um I think that in this in this age
of government intervention and we’ve
seen some successes the price cap the
IRA um it’s time to start start thinking
about how do we take steps from to to
push that forward from the bottom up in
in context of these broader geopolitical
considerations and I don’t think it’s
going to be an ease needle thread for
however um DC pans out in the next 6 to
eight months you know great comment and
and alexandros you you have customers
right PPC deals with industrial and
consumer and and and uh like kind of you
know civilian home consumers like how do
you see
like the consumer sentiment in Europe
evolving uh you know what what what what
tools are in place to make sure that
that people get the service they need in
an affordable way and and do you you
know how do you see that as a risk going
forward so I think the first the first
thing we should put on the table is I I
think the civilians today are a lot more
confident than they were sort a couple
years ago there was a lot more people
afraid of a compl blackout actually
seeing that we’ve managed to go through
this situation which was sort of
projected almost as a doomsday situation
today they have a lot more confidence in
what we have and how we operate the
other thing is they matured very very
quickly with respect to what a renewable
is how do I manage my energy or what’s
my energy footprint or what does sort of
conservation of energy mean you know two
three years ago we’re a lot more
wasteful than we were today today
Europeans are really really aware of
what’s going on I mean I remember when
this when when the crisis started you
had prime ministers the ministers sort
of making statements to to their uh to
the civilians like uh you’ll need to
sort of uh be prepared to to wear very
thick clothes because it’s going to be
really really possible that we’re not
going to be able to heat you for in this
winter right when you start projecting
these things on people you know their
minds going to different parts of the
world today they have a lot more
confidence in what it is that we’re
doing yeah on the other hand we’ve uh
gained their trust so all the policies
and the programs and the Investments
that we’re setting out they have a very
very clear view of what just happened
you know 24 months ago so they’re more
apt to taking up whatever it is in terms
of their commitments in collaboration
with what we need to do to sort of build
a structured foundation so this thing is
not going to happen again so I think
Europeans are in a situation where
we know and we want to take control and
make sure that we don’t end up back in
this situation and they’re willing to go
through the extra mile so I think that
change of mindset I think that that
positional change is very very important
it means also that now they’re more apt
to collaboration they’re more apt to
Partnerships so they’re like okay I
can’t do everything on my own they
understood that they had to collaborate
between the EU States in order to get
out of the situation now as you said
correctly we need to look at it in a
global scale so where can I get this
type of energy from that partner where
can I get this resource from that other
partner so they’re right now more apt to
setting up those deep long-term
relationship with strategic Partners in
order for that plan and that transition
to go through another thing which today
I think is again exceptionally important
is in Europe when you ask somebody about
the green transition is it possible can
it happen is this real can we run a
country or can we run a continent on
Renewables a lot of the people
actually are confident it’s possible
they they actually have the factual
evidence to prove it you have countries
which for days or even many days in a
year are completely run on Renewables uh
en I mean the renewable energy in Europe
right now I think is produced uh more
from Renewables than it is from other
types of fuel so we’re we’re at that
inflection point where things are
happening but again going back to your
original Point what are some the
concerns that are coming up the energy
transition is is again one side is how
we produce energy uh the form of it how
we distribute in the grids the other
side is how we can Sho so this is a
massive what we We call
electrification we have to think about
Vehicles well the vehicles will now be
electrical shipping will now be
electrical and so on and so forth this
creates for massive change in Industry
massive change in Commerce massive
change in how we manage these assets so
people now are looking how do I take
advantage I mean we were having a
discussion with one of the customers you
know they were a traditional Supermarket
uh chain and they decided to you know
sort of toy with a couple of electric
vehicles they couldn’t imagine the
amount of savings that they suddenly
could have projecting it at scale so
immediately the uptake was massive so
you can see it took a very little effort
in order for them to experience
something massive impact on the business
but on the risk side we get really
difficult questions and I’ll just throw
a couple in terms of thought because we
don’t have all of these answers but we
need to start thinking about it today if
I were to say to the audience that there
is a scenario where somebody hits a
button and we were talking about with
Emy earlier you know this point click or
button is something that we need to
start uh putting in the back of our mind
so somebody hits a button and every
single vehicle mhm in the country or in
the state of
Washington doesn’t move mhm this is a
scenario today you’re not going to plan
for it because it’s it’s not going to
happen if it is it happens in electric
vehicles you you could have something go
wrong in every single Tesla in the
country will stop oh it’s exceptionally
easy something can happen and every
single charging point in the country
stops these are things that didn’t exist
two years ago in Europe this dialogue
was sort of in PowerPoint slides this is
a reality we’re trying to work through
all of these points so this means we
need more technology we need deep Tech
we need Partners we need Consultants we
need the entire
vertical asset that we can get in order
to drive these so I think we have things
that we have convinced ourselves that we
can achieve and we can do it’s no longer
something of a fluffy type of cloud
discussion it’s real it’s practical it’s
happening uh we’re actually measuring
the value so we can have from small
businesses all the way to States you can
actually measure the impact of this
transition but we are very quickly
finger pointing new challenges new
problems new massive risks that we
didn’t have in in in our canvas before
so if you look at our corporate risk
registry 48 months ago 24 months ago and
today they are materially changed you
know I remember when I was working 20 30
years ago these things just sort of were
pretty much stable and there were just a
few things moving you have massive
things moving which I think just as a
takeaway three things I think we need to
keep in mind one is resilience I think
we shouldn’t be afraid we’ve proven to
ourselves covid energy crisis we do have
embedded in our system resilience so we
can deliver we can get out of these
that’s number one the second is
stability security you need to have a
baseline you need to know what’s the ABS
absolute thing that you can ensure so
that this is what confidence
materializes back into the people and I
think the the third point
is speed speed means tech tech
means ai ai means data centers data
centers means energy and you now have a
new sort of cyclical set of challenges
which is going to be sort of the things
that are going to be putting us in
thought in question I think you know
you’ll also be involved in everyone but
it’s a collaborative thing it is a thing
that needs strong relationships deep
medium to long term and I think that’s
what we need to be thinking about no
single person I don’t think no country
I’m not even sure that continents can
solve this so it’s a different type of
world that we’re in and we need to be
reactive because we can’t predict
everything that we have so I think this
is just where we are I’m pretty go
please let me just explain one thing
very very quickly what we were talking
about about the push of but yeah because
in the past and in Ukraine today we’re
talking about a war where there are
people using traditional Weaponry on a
on a in a in a real location and we’re
having war in a in a specific geography
but extended from that war we’re having
this thing where you wake up one morning
and somebody made we joke about it but
you know makes a click and all of a
sudden a critical node a critical ship a
critical something in somewhere in a
supply chain or an electricity Network
or something uh goes down could be for a
minute could be banking for 15 minutes
you know and it’s it’s it’s like tip for
tap because if it happens to you you got
to do something back and so we have this
thing where we’re really in a much
larger conflict than it seems but
because it’s just one click and then
three months nothing happens and then
the second click and then nothing
happens for a company like yours and for
you know for companies in the United
States and elsewhere you know the
preparation that that takes so that you
are not having your customers be the
victims of the click this is a huge
challenge I like that phrase victims of
the click right new phrase yeah um I you
I think there’s going to be a micro I
think there’s a microphone that can
circulate yes there is if anybody has a
question
uh please yeah there’s one in the back
already uh please just remember that
questions have a brief prepositional
statement and then a sentence that goes
up at the end um and we welcome your
your question sir if you don’t mind
introducing yourself as well my name is
Mark Goodman I’m retired retired energy
consultant try to make it as brief as I
can but uh Amy were talking about some
of the problems of volatility the market
obviously has a problem matching
long-term investment uh capacity
increases with with demand
increases uh but whenever there’s
something like an oil shock or or even
less than an oil shock price increases
in the policy sphere everybody seems to
agree that what needs to be done is
government me government needs to be
doing everything it can to promote
greater production on one side it should
be all Renewables on the other side it
should fossil whatever
but what gives anybody the idea that
government is better at matching the
growth of supply to the growth of demand
rather than simply creating another glut
which sets us up for
another uh shortage oil price
shot okay well I’ll take that one I mean
as you may know I’ve written a whole
book on that so um you know we’re in a
cycle um my second book on digital kind
of talks about you know can Ai and
digital help us get out of the cycle and
I do think your point is well taken
which is as we allocate investment
whether it’s the government’s making
investment in some location or whether
it’s Private Industry you know making
their own judgments about when to invest
the bottom line is we have this tool
now which is demand management which I
was just telling the story earlier today
I was giving a talk at at a Convention
of rural electricity co-ops from the
United States and I got heckled saying
that California had used demand
management to get out of a I forget it
was a 20 or 30 megawatt increase
temporarily in the month of September uh
I guess it was 21 because of the heat
wave um and so this is these these tools
are going to become easier to use but
harder to protect right because instead
of just what California you had to do
which is to send a text message to
everybody who had a cell phone in the
state and tell you what two hours to
turn something off and what they
recommended you turn off uh someday
you’re going to have a contract with
your utility I don’t know in Europe
where they’re going to turn it off for
you and they’re going to try to do it in
such a way that they’ve already used an
algorithm to figure out how long it
would take your house to heat up or cool
down and and whether you can plug your
car in to accelerate uh uh a storage for
with period of time or not and when to
charge your car like all of that could
potentially be automated and thereby be
like the second front that is no longer
just you know we’re going to get I’m
going to Jawbone people to drill or I’m
going to Jawbone people to invest going
a job on people to be a little hot yeah
right you’re a job on people to be hot
exactly um yeah I I totally agree I
think that’s going to be an important
aspect going forward I don’t me to mock
it uh other other interventions or
questions one up here in the front and
uh then there’s a gentleman in the in
the expansion room
there yeah my question is with regard to
Global LG markets uh we talked about
gluts is there a glut it seems like uh
yeah what is what is you know what is
the structural volatility in the global
LG Market is your sort of exposed to
that is what’s the long-term trend from
your guys’s perspective it’s a very good
question I’ll take it I think I mean I
again investor p is Right us capacity
doubles in the next eight years uh uh
and qari capacity expands markedly I
think if we look at the last two years
um 50 plus per of new contracts signed
by European companies for l& have been
with us companies uh for guar the number
is closer to about 20% um I think moving
forward you know there’s there’s a lot
to be said about how the dependency for
Europe on
LNG uh
how it plays into the geopolitics of of
of relationships with the Qatar and with
the US and with the US pause that we
have ongoing now um and I think the
question of a glut at the moment is is
we truly are about to enter a period of
growth that we have never ever seen
before Supply growth yeah Supply growth
correct and I think if we think back to
2020 when covid first hit you remember
when we had that glut we actually turned
off us LNG facilities like we we told we
turned down uction for a minute there
and I think you know it’s not
unprecedented to think that when we have
this huge glut coming in in the coming
years that we have to manage um LG
Supply in a way that we haven’t in the
past so I think the question of whether
or not we are entering a period of of of
of glut in the LG Market you know growth
2025 onward is much larger than anything
we’ve seen um so far and it’s going to
be one that changes price Dynamics
changes the power stack and one that um
thankfully with Europe’s build out uh
regasification capacity is is prepared
to make the best of as we move into that
period Amy welcome your thoughts on that
as well there’s a gentleman in the very
back who can ask a question go ahead
this was a wonderful panel my name is
Suri from US Customs and my question is
with regards to the growth of artificial
intelligence what we’re seeing is an
increased energy consumption by these
software Technologies and tools as
they’re scaling upwards how do we make
the grid that we currently have
resilient enough to be able to handle
this increased capacity and do we have
that you know that coupled with the EV
transition which is taking place this
double whammy of increased energy
consumption how do we manage both of
these factors it’s a great and and
critical question welcome welcome your
thoughts yeah so that that’s that’s a
great question
um
today we’re having discussions with sort
of the hyperscalers and the large real
estate developers who are building out
data centers we’re not looking at the
data center
as an air conditioning machine we’re not
looking at it as just consumption we are
looking at it as an integral part of
this sort of demand management of the
grid so the data center itself is two
things of course it consumes but it has
available resources in terms of
electricity that we can actually use to
balance back into the market so the
discussion from uh somebody’s building a
data center I just need you to plug it
in on the network and and that’s that’s
it that’s no longer the dialogue both us
and the hyperscalers are saying where
would we prefer you to be where is it
more convenient for you to be deployed
what type of capacity is that you want
to deploy and how do I integrate that
into the network so a data center is an
integral part of our design thinking
going forward
on the AI front which basically has two
tangents right when we’re talking about
sort of the Gen AI stuff or the gpus as
we normally say you’re talking five to
10 times fold more energy demand than
what you have from a traditional sort of
data center which now houses Enterprise
workloads so that is Uber demanding and
on a structural level uh a typical data
center works during the days that we
work we go to the office and we when we
go to sleep the data cender workload
drops in the AI world it’s
247365 consuming as much as it can so in
this capacity we have a lot of
flexibility which is sort of the other
thing that we’re now starting to build
into the networks how do we manage that
flexibility so the consumption side of
the AI on the how do we use AI it will
become uh it’s becoming but I think
it’ll take probably a couple of more
years where it becomes an integral part
of what Amy also mentioned before today
in Europe we have a lot of countries
which actually do Dynamic management of
the workload so exactly as was described
before you’re at your house uh you’re
just about to put the washing machine
and you’re going to get an SMS or a
message on your phone or your app and
basically says Ah can you defer that
sort of washing machine a couple of
hours or you sort of plugged in your car
you know just as you came from the
office and you wanted to charge your car
it’ll say are you okay if we sort of
schedule that charging for 4 hours later
and in both cases you’ll get a
compensation you’ll get some sort of
money back so effectively you start
handling that sort of uh transaction of
your energy management AI will play an
integral part because a lot of what I
just discussed will happen automatically
you’ll just basically say um I don’t
want to deal with this and the system
will actually do that for you and it’ll
have a master view of how do I normalize
all of these Peaks and values that we
have in energy so you can clearly see
all of these things are all in
interconnected and then it comes back to
actually what we’re saying with Amy how
do we protect these how do we ensure the
resilience of these resources how do we
ensure that these things are always
going to be there because once you
relinquish
control what are you going to do if it
doesn’t work so again these are sort of
two dimensions of and on a national
security basis it’s a really critical
question because if you think about all
the different weapon systems that are
utilizing these resources uh then it
becomes as we already know a critical
Target oh yeah I mean like you know you
use the the the victims of the switch
question about earlier with EVs and just
sort of like shutting those down equally
if if we’re sort of using bidirectional
charging do grid balancing and then
somebody presses a button you could just
dump gigawatts of power onto the Grid in
a way that could be very damaging to
distribution infrastructure it’s a click
away yeah that’s that’s the it doesn’t
need physical access it can done from
any part of the world and it puts on us
and anybody who’s on on the sort of
generation distribution side incremental
responsibilities and again I think
policy makers governments will have to
work there is absolutely no way a
company in itself will be able to
protect itself from any sort of let’s
call it a form of attack I I like to say
energy disruption so it’s that point and
click thing in the energy disruption
space you cannot cater for all of these
things on your own right so you’re going
to need some sort of extended help and
again it goes back to that relationship
the Partnerships that need to be put in
place well um let me thank our our
panelists for sharing their wisdom and
insights with us today uh for those of
us in the room we’re going to take a
break there’s I believe a lunch in just
outside you can bring your food back in
here for online guests uh unfortunately
we don’t have lunch for you but um but
we’re very happy that you’re joining us
and we hope that you rejoin us at
1:00 uh for our program to zoom and and
thank you everyone for being here if you
wouldn’t mind sharing your warm Applause
for
our thank you very much we’ll see you in
a little bit
[Music]

Join the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change program and the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program on Tuesday, April 23, 2024, at CSIS HQ, for the 2024 Energy Security and Geopolitics Conference. This year’s conference will feature a keynote from The Honorable Geoffrey R. Pyatt, Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources and Mr. Georgios Stassis, Chairman and CEO of the Public Power Corporation S.A. The conference will begin at 10:45 AM and conclude at 4:30 PM EST.

The conference will convene senior leaders from government, private sector, and think tank communities. Speakers will reflect on the last two years of policy developments in Europe related to energy security, specifically how energy policy is informing and shaping geopolitical decisions, and vice versa.

The conference will be held at CSIS headquarters and streamed virtually. Further details on the schedule, participants, and registration will be updated below in the leadup to the conference in April. All attendees must register through the link below.

This event is made possible by the generous support of the Public Power Corporation S.A.

———————————————
A nonpartisan institution, CSIS is the top national security think tank in the world.
Visit www.csis.org to find more of our work as we bring bipartisan solutions to the world’s greatest challenges.

Want to see more videos and virtual events? Subscribe to this channel and turn on notifications: https://cs.is/2dCfTve

Follow CSIS on:
• Twitter: www.twitter.com/csis
• Facebook: www.facebook.com/CSIS.org
• Instagram: www.instagram.com/csis/