META Earnings DUMP. Now What?
hey everyone I’m charting Man Dan of the
chart guys Trader and Technical analyst
for the last 13 plus years we’re going
to check in on the market we were
looking for the daily oversold bounces
to start the week we got them now we
know we’re looking for daily lower highs
is the most likely scenario we’ve got
some meta earnings to throw into the mix
Tesla earnings reaction yesterday into
this morning let’s get to the charts all
right so we know a daily lower high is
the most likely scenario we start the
morning with a gap up open we know
generally speaking Gap up are for
selling especially when they align with
the longer term most likely scenario so
overall we’re scouting to see if this is
going to Mark Daily lower highs after
hours meta earnings reaction is bearish
and spy is testing the low of the day
right now so if when tomorrow rolls
around if we have this hourly downtrend
confirming with the drop on the morning
hourly lower high nice bounce but just a
lower high and if we break the low of
today tomorrow we confirm an hourly
downtrend we confirm the daily low or
high and the next bit of information is
can the Bulls confirm a daily uptrend to
have the daily
oversold Mark the higher low on a longer
term time frame or is that just a dead
cap bounce to result in lower lows what
the Bears want to see tomorrow is all
major sectors hitting the lows of the
day at the same time to show us money
leaving the market again if that happens
that increases the probabilities for me
significantly that we can drop to a
lowerer low if it’s rotation then we
have more high probability that a daily
higher low can form today we were this
close to all major sectors hitting the
low of the day at the same time on the
morning XLF double bottomed at its low
of the day to prevent it from happening
late morning Healthcare XLV double
bottomed at the low of the day to
prevent it from happening and I’m
watching very closely if that clearly
happens on this consolidation after the
bounce attempt
so QQ same deal you could see a 30
minute
equilibrium into the end of the day and
there’s your bearish meta reaction so
hourly downtrend confirming if we break
420420 then the daily low or high is set
loved the clarity of today’s action I
wasn’t planning on trading a lot today
but found myself in flow day just
because the most likely scenarios kept
aligning first we had the NASDAQ 5
minute equilibrium on the open just nice
and clear and while we were tightening
up here I have a little bit of a bar
lean because I know we just gapped up in
a daily low or high as the most likely
scenario after we just bounced massively
for a couple of days and then Bitcoin
dumped while we were still in this
equilibrium Bitcoin clearly started
daily consolidation I’m not saying the
broader Market dumped because Bitcoin
led the way I’m saying that I can shift
my probabilities as a Trader and if
Bitcoin is dumping breaking support
starting daily consolidation while Kik Q
is forming a 5-minute equilibrium with
all the other setup my probabilities if
it was 55% that this breaks bare now
goes up to 65% that it’s going to break
bare so I can use that information it’s
just a little piece of the puzzle would
it be possible to break bull while
Bitcoin is dumping yes but again it’s
just a probability shifter as we’re
collecting all these little pieces of
data all these little Clues to help us
determine probabilities we end up with
the bear
break had a nice bounce so uh
we’ll talk about a semiconductor bounce
trade that I took because I posted about
it and I was shorting the NASDAQ on the
way down but not doing a good job of
posting so I don’t want to talk about it
in hindsight but the bounce was knowing
so I was looking at a semiconductor
bounce and the reason was knowing that a
number of things number one at the point
in time when I was looking for a bounce
the Bears had been in complete control
nvda 15minute RSI was in the
and I started to notice relative
strength where did my things
go so I say at I don’t know what right
near the bottom aggressive Bulls are
keeping an eye on SMH and nvda here
small relative strength fors QQQ the
last 10 minutes so why did that stand
out to me because on the way down SMH
divided QQQ was showing relative
weakness the whole way we then
bottomed at
1234 and we had relative strength from
1234 to
1258 so that’s relative
strength let’s see when exactly my entry
was 1234 was relative strength
3468 on
[Music]
SXL
1236 12 anyways right near that low s
soxl dropped down and hit
3460 at that low so I got a real good
fill I sell partial 10 cents higher I
put my stop at 3458 and I give a a
risk-free attempt to to see this bounce
and my mindset was if we are indeed
going to start daily consolidation it
has to happen with hourly confirmed
downtrends if we’re going to confirm
hourly downtrends that mean an hourly
Bounce has to happen so I was looking
for nvda crushed RSI hourly Bounce has
to happen to confirm the downtrend to
the Daily lower high being set as just a
number of the factors the relative
strength another
reason and other than
that exited on the the five minute stair
step when you often if you have a five
minute stair step it’s often the one
minute ema2 acting as support or
resistance so this kikq bounce had a 5
minute stair step for about an hour
and during that point in time the one
minute EMA 12 just kept going and kept
hold hold hold hold hold hold hold hold
the whole way up when we finally lost it
that’s it the momentum’s gone what you
will find is often when you’re in that
extreme of a stair step whatever time
frame it’s on you know normally you look
at that and say q q well when we lose
the five minute stair step we know a
five minute high or low is most likely
we have a ton of space for it but we
also know that an hourly lower high is
the most likely scenario when you have
that momentum and it finally stops often
that’s the pivot and so if you want to
be an aggressive bear you know a bull is
exiting when 1 minute ema2 is lost and
an aggressive bear is top fishing when
that level is lost for low risk and
saying all right I’m going to make an
attempt for the arly low or
high but uh some nice trading in both
directions
today so QQQ at the lows so it’s looking
real likely now that we are going to set
the daily lower high another Factor
daily EMA 12 Gap up open daily lower
high most likely scenario again when we
get a Confluence of signals our
confidence increases so it’s very likely
that the nasdaq’s going to break the low
of today tomorrow potentially going to
gap down we’re at the low of the
reaction right now or
2285 and now it’s a question of how much
retracement from the bounce do we see so
the bounce was decent retracement almost
right about 50% C we form the daily
higher low well we’re probably going to
need help from other earnings what do we
got Google and Microsoft left this
week so now how much are we going to
pull back 50% retracement would be
42040 bears want to see us exceed that
level on a pullback but uh it’s getting
pretty ugly here after hours as meta is
in freef
fall and meta ran straight up I looked
at it’s monthly and I was shocked to see
that its monthly ema2 is down at 373 we
would need to drop another 10% plus from
where we are after hours just to get to
monthly ema2 I mean we went straight up
400%
plus pretty astounding and it’s coming
back down to reality a bit trading at
432 now so WIS the last time we were at
432 it’s been a
while few
months see oh we’re in gap fi territory
let’s see if that opens things up but
because meta is down so much Microsoft’s
down 1% Apple’s down a little bit so all
these names that have yet to report
Amazon’s down over
1% so I might want to take some more
hedge profit entered some
sqqq for the daily lower high to protect
the
IRA I guess I’ll let it play out till
tomorrow morning at
least so bears daily low or high set
very
likely Tesla bullish earnings reaction
we can watch this downtrend resistance
line where we stalled
out we got four different touches there
so that’s valid for me and we have to
confirm a daily uptrend if anything’s
going to change yes I am scouting a
three-month higher low compared to 101
but a daily uptrend confirming is just
the first baby step towards a a month a
three-month higher I mean we need a
weekly uptrend to confirm so let’s just
take a nice and slow can we confirm a
daily uptrend whenever we top out and
then we got to confirm a weekly uptrend
but I am watching for a three-month
higher low compared to 101 sometime this
summer so we’ll be keeping an eye on
that moving
forward financial sector daily
consolidation started its bounce
retracement was very significant same
thing though we got to confirm a daily
uptrend little bit of downside reaction
after hours we’re down I mean it’s not
much at all
it’s 2% or something
0.15% but best case for the Bulls back
test and hold these EMAs which are
crossing Bull and then confirm a daily
uptrend but significant relative
strength in the financial sector over
the last week aside from the last two
days that the NASDAQ and semiconductors
got their bounce going and go back and
watch I’m sure Joey talked about it as
well I didn’t watch his video yesterday
but watch the video from Monday just
laying out the setup the inside bars for
QQQ semiconductors the bounce now
scouting the lower high it’s just a good
continuity step by step I use that word
a lot in that
video so XLV is trying to negate the
daily be flag daily inside bar today
again when the when the move tops out
we’ve got to confirm the daily uptrend
so the burden is on bulls to do
that in all of these major sectors if
there’s going to be any confidence that
our bottoms are in for now so what this
daily consolidation looks like the next
couple days and meta nope and Microsoft
and Google earnings are going to be key
here pretty important heading into next
week iwm daily inside bar but we’re
watching it for a lower high as well
it’s not reacting much after
hours baba baba looks to me like wof
accumulation so I’ve been saying I don’t
care at all about Baba unless we break
this resistance but we broke support
into a massive v-shaped bounce three Gap
up opens in a row and this is going back
to Lamont’s style of uh technical
analysis utilizing volume profile if you
break a clear support Zone and there’s
no acceptance under it and then you
vshape that’s notable and this looks to
me like whiteoff distribution trading
sideways with a downward lean be break
no follow through that marks the low so
what I want to see from here in an Ideal
World is reject from
7543 and give us a daily inverse head
and shoulders and I’ll Scout a daily
higher low entry I’ll make a statement
that’s either the daily higher low or
I’m wrong and then try and confirm that
daily uptrend to make our way into a
resistance break but I’m back interested
in looking for a longer term bottom in
Baba and some of these Chinese names
because of the response to Breaking
support clsk crypto Mining stock did the
same thing
breaking this base of support zero
follow through
vshape so has my attention on Baba and
kweb even stronger K web’s already
hitting those higher
highs very
impressive this is the strongest the
Chinese names have been a long time
let’s look at kweb divided by kikq
probably a massive bounce yeah this is
the strongest kweb has been compared to
the NASDAQ in the entire year testing
the highs of the Year first thing of the
year so let’s see if that relative
strength can
stick definitely an attention
grabber could take a little more profit
okay cannabis cgc solid bounce daily
stair step down daily stairs step up
very nice bounce retracement still in
the absence of news and equilibrium is
the most likely scenario but I’ve
definitely been impressed with the bull
follow through and I did not
get uh much of this bounce couple little
trades here and there but I’ve been
focusing on the semiconductors on this
bounce the last couple of days and uh
was not expecting this significant a
turnaround but cannot stress enough the
five minute volume signals on these
names ACB and cgc when the five minute
volume this is your standard volume when
the first candle is the highest volume
of the day that happens the vast
majority the time in many names sectors
ETFs
whatever sometimes more often the
Cannabis sector that changes as soon as
you get that information that to me can
say aggressive bull that happened
yesterday at 10:00 a.m. and then from
that point forward we end up going
another 10% higher and then it happened
again here’s normal highest volume of
the morning normal highest volume first
candle happened to here as
well highest volume candle of the
morning 25 35 minutes into the day
that’s unusual the worst entry you get
on that candle is 690 we end up
going 18% higher from a a late signal oh
man I feel like I’m chasing I mean we
have to protect we have to have a stop
loss and you know manage our risk but
that’s a signal if I’m going to chase
and buy into a break that volume signal
is worth paying attention
to so we’re going to scout uh when the
daily stair step is lost we’ll look for
a higher low ACB is similar just a
little bit
weaker good sign to initially break 745
but still clearly struggling there
remember on the way down reject reject
reject reject we broke it yesterday but
couldn’t close over it still struggling
a
bit but overall the weekly charts for
these can the Canadian names here look a
okay weekly higher low against this is
showing us this isn’t the slow BL lead
because we had a weekly stair step drop
last time now we got a weekly higher low
doesn’t mean we can’t you know confirm a
weekly downtrend but uh we could say
it’s different than the last time around
and CC
cgc similar it’s not just a stair step
give it all back higher low set off the
EMA back test yes a weekly lower high is
possible to continue tightening up but
we can say it’s not the same as last
time msos is still struggling there was
a massive Market set sell at the end of
the day to ensure we did not close at
$9 somebody
put 1.5 million
sell at 892 limit right in the last
minute of the day but it’s just a daily
downtrend nothing changes as long as
it’s a daily downtrend lower high lower
low lower high lower low if this bounce
does not break 959 it’s just another
lower high in the daily
downtrend so nowhere near the amount of
of strength that the higher listed names
are
seeing sndl had a nice little bounce but
it’s clearly ACB and cgc
leading the higher listed names vff
worth paying attention to this is going
to break soon we’re just going sideways
here tightening up crypto stocks nice
move I will be scouting daily higher
lows M and Riot going back and forth in
terms of relative strength and weakness
this week but Riot has been very
impressive 1312 key resistance again
tons of space for a daily high or low on
these miners clsk as well I’m pretty
much watching these three when I look
for a daily high or low it’s either
going to be Riot or clsk and Riot
divided by m is showing us that it’s the
strongest it’s been in a couple of
months and if we can clear 68 it’ll be
the strongest it’s been in five months
which would be
significant dollar daily downtrend
confirmed no follow through so now we’ll
see see if it ends up being a weekly
bull flag metal still seeing weekly
consolidation we’re going to scout a
higher low but no sign of it yet on both
gold and
silver and
miners what’s oil
doing so oil’s trying to set that Weekly
higher low need to shape up a daily
uptrend Bulls are just fine if weekly
ema2 holds trying to do so
now all right quick
summary scouting daily lower highs
they’re likely set now the big question
do we drop to lower lows we need
increasing bare volume we need all major
sectors hitting the lows together to
increase our probabilities that we’re
going to drop to daily lower lows if
that is not happening we’re going to
look for daily higher lows and
tightening ranges into next week
Microsoft and Google earnings are
definitely going to have an impact as to
whether or not the NASDAQ sets a daily
higher low this week or not in the next
two days hope you’re well do good things
see you soon
META dumping shaping up daily lower highs in SPY and QQQ.
Daily higher lows most likely in crypto mining stocks.
TSLA bottom? BABA time to shine?
Some SMH trade review.
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