Inflation Speeds Up, Economy Slows Down, Can Bitcoin Still Go Up? | Market Mavericks

    hey everybody welcome back to Market
    Mavericks yes there’s been a little
    Hiatus but we got the Three Amigos back
    together finally how are you guys doing
    good hello doing great good man all
    right so Scott Scott was out way
    gallivanting all around the world you
    know so it’s it’s not the mar Mavericks
    without you buddy it’s my fault it
    is know had to needle you a little on
    that but uh just yeah of course I
    deserve it but it’s it’s great to be
    back guys and let’s get let’s without
    further delay let’s get into some of
    this action here so so I guess let’s
    start with the economy um we got GDP
    numbers out this morning Mike uh it was
    a sharp drop from expectations I think
    it was 1.6% versus 2.5% expected and I
    was surprised initially to see yield
    surging I was like oh this is weaker
    data doesn’t this isn’t this a negative
    can’t doesn’t the FED want to cut but
    instead we saw yield surging can you
    explain what’s going on here yeah I show
    it on my screen right now and the GDP
    annaly came out of 1.6% expected 2.5%
    the first shocking thing about that to
    me was
    um one’s the last time we had GDP that
    came out less than expected they they’ve
    been up you know higher than expected of
    course it’ll be revised now but on the
    screen I’ll show you GDB price index was
    3.1 versus expected 3.0 and the PCA um
    price index was 3.7 versus 3.4 so much
    higher inflation than expected so
    stagflation is definitely not not good
    for stocks it’s also at that stage where
    everybody’s debating whether okay is
    this just a bit of a correction to buy
    or is this the bigger at least 10%
    correction that some of us guilty here
    have been looking for and I can dig into
    that in a little bit or we can just
    around sorry to jump in but just a quick
    quick fire on this so so isn’t tomorrow
    the pce data so what what pce data came
    out today that that caused the market to
    or yields to jump yeah this is this is
    that’s right this is I’m showing you
    screen that was one from the quarter
    over quarter um GDP and it’s the high
    related so hey tomorrow I’m showing you
    how we have PC e the deflators expected
    2.6% annual basis a lot of people watch
    the month over month at. 3% um that’s
    all the stuff we’re the core deflators
    expected 2.7 that’s what we’re seeing
    tomorrow tomorrow
    basically and again correct me if I’m
    wrong but basically what what’s going on
    here is that the Market’s freaking out
    because the economy is weakening but
    inflation is still moving higher Mike
    can we just really quickly explain
    stagflation I just like to not take for
    granted that everybody knows what we’re
    talking about the last time we had
    extended stagflation obviously was the
    70s but you’re talking about basically
    unemployment Rising that’s the part we
    don’t have yet necessarily but high
    unemployment inflation so prices rising
    and slow growth so you have this
    situation which is a B nightmare because
    they can’t cut and they can’t raise
    because both of those will push a lever
    in the wrong direction for one of those
    things so I just want to be clear to
    people what the problem is if we have a
    situation like that and just to even
    explain even a little further so during
    usually during inflationary periods you
    have a strong economy so people are
    making more money to offset the rising
    prices right but in a stagflation every
    period you’re your people are losing
    jobs they’re making less money and
    prices are going up so they can’t afford
    those rises in prices and that’s why
    stagl is so so so bad yeah it’s a key
    thing that Scott said fed can’t tighten
    or fed can’t ease you can’t ease in
    stagflation because their job is to keep
    interest rates um low and Unemployment
    uh unemployment low so they’re stuck um
    but it’s in my view it’s a blip it’s a
    blip it’s all conting on one thing the
    stock market has to go up and it’s not a
    coincidence that we had this pretty
    sharp rally in the stock market the last
    12 months um up 26% Total return and
    inflation sticky we had crude oil bounce
    and inflation sticky and we also had all
    the Fed rate Cuts coming out of the
    market that’s just not coincidence it’s
    the most I think it’s we’re at that
    point and even some economists say where
    the stock market is the most significant
    it’s ever been in terms of
    um um of inflation expectations and risk
    on and animal spars I mean it’s just
    completely directly correlating you need
    the stock market to go down basically I
    think for the FED to start easy this way
    see yeah no I’m in the same camp with
    that I think you get a 10% Plus
    correction in the stock market and we
    quickly see a rate cut that’s that’s at
    least my guess but um but yeah it’s it’s
    certainly going to be interesting with
    the PC data tomorrow I mean Gold’s
    pulled back off of its highs we’ve seen
    Silver pull back off of its highs oil is
    still holding relatively close to its
    recent Highs but but we’ve seen you know
    China is trying to get out of the the
    hole that they’re in um where where do
    we see are you thinking Mike that we’re
    seeing this correction we’re already in
    the midst of a 10 per correction are you
    thinking yeah well I’m I’m biased let me
    show a few charts on that um this is the
    main one I think that matters it’s just
    a chart the S&P 500 people seen it from
    me before um and it is um basically
    correcting potential we’re going to go
    back to that Gap we left this is S&P
    minis um and you know I most be and the
    key thing has happened is Market started
    rolling over we or went higher it’s
    taking out all this fed easy and this is
    fed fund Futures in one year it’s just
    going back up towards par but also at
    the same time Commodities are rolling
    over so it’s all happening and there’s a
    good reason for that it’s historic right
    see almost a 20 almost a 20-year low in
    volatility and this is one thing I show
    you here if you take the vix volatility
    index the 52 we moving average you minus
    subtract out the t- Bel rate which shows
    the high t- Bel rate see that bottoming
    process here it’s extremely low that’s
    an environment you say okay I don’t want
    to be overweight equities when t- belts
    are really high and volatility is really
    low and how high and low is it it’s
    probably bottoming like it was around
    2018 when the last time it did that was
    basically 2006 and seven that’s part of
    the reason I think I I show you here
    this gold um gold crude oil ratio is
    going to pop up from around 30 to 60
    it’s not a lot to expect you know 3,000
    gold $50 crude oil um and this to me is
    one of the key charts it’s showing
    what’s happening we’re starting to see
    that convergence where you put
    the price of gold per ounce on the same
    scale as S&P 500 they’re just stting to
    converge a little S&P 500 this dip so
    far is absolutely nothing on a big
    picture it’s nothing it’s go ahead no no
    I was going to say so so we’re talking
    about a weakening economy and the big
    question Scott is are you still holding
    your TLT I am I am so I mean to me
    that’s a longer term hedge position I
    caught the bottom and I’m just not going
    to get shaken out of it uh based on you
    know day-to-day data or whatever it’s
    not even something that I’ve been
    tracking too closely now I got to look
    at 87 so yeah I’m in at like 84 yeah
    there was some profit to be taken there
    but like I said it’s a hedge if we go
    into a recession or or we get a great
    reset probably be very very happy you
    know that that holding that so not
    particularly uh concerned yeah in fact
    you know just just uh you know I
    actually loaded the boat just in the
    last week or so here as we’ve been down
    in this lower range this have this
    beautiful Channel and and really this is
    a bullish pattern right I mean you could
    call it a cup and handle pattern you
    could call it I mean anything but
    ultimately this trend line right here is
    where where the key is at least on price
    action so so I’m actually expecting TLT
    to to make a push up here and I think
    that jives with what you guys are saying
    too in terms of potentially getting a
    weaker economy as the stock market
    starts pulling back I mean you think
    about some of these losses in market cap
    and last week Nvidia dropped $200
    billion today meta I think at one point
    it was down 200 billion now I don’t
    think it’s
    down huge drops and these are these are
    massive positions in people’s portfolios
    that were making them feel ridiculously
    Rich so that they could spend thus
    implying that inflation was going up and
    now you have that re reversion kind of
    thing going on so so it should be fun I
    mean it’s it’s certain volatility is
    starting to return the vix is not in the
    20s yet but but certainly something that
    I do expect in the not too distant
    future all right so quickly turning our
    attention Scott give us a rundown of
    what is going on on bitcoin and in the
    crypto markets where where are you
    looking are so are you looking at a
    bigger pullback than what we have right
    now or is this bullish consolidation for
    the next breakout yeah here’s here’s my
    chart and I actually it’s funny I did a
    stream this morning with Mike Alfred and
    the title was 90 ,000 Bitcoin and we
    were talking about how that was possible
    you know in a few months and I don’t
    think I’ve ever gotten angrier responses
    about a bullish title and I’ve had much
    more bullish titles than that which
    indicates to me that people are really
    already losing their patience with no
    new all-time highs on a daily basis and
    already thinking we have to go down and
    already getting exceptionally bearish
    and we see the Euphoria at the top of
    ranges and the and the Panic at the
    bottom of ranges but if you look at
    Bitcoin since 17,000 I mean to me the
    the bare Market ended at 25 the First
    new high you know higher uh higher high
    so just had big moves up consolidation
    sideways sometimes for months big move
    up consolidation sideways so until
    proven otherwise this is a big move up
    and we’re trading sideways in a range
    and people are panicking every time you
    get to the bottom of the range Tay’s old
    his time it’s like Beauty and the Beast
    I haven’t made a joke about it about it
    on Twitter today I made this chart you
    know wag me for those who don’t know is
    we’re all gonna make it so every time
    we’re to high we’re all going to make it
    every time we’re to low it’s over high
    of the range wag me low of the range
    it’s over over and over and over again
    and I can see it in the sentiment so
    right now actually this morning I
    literally got on and people were
    panicking I said I’m kind of bullish and
    it went up today I’m not saying that’s
    the reason but you can set your clock to
    the uh stupidity of Twitter and YouTube
    trolls who are over emotional and uh you
    know probably uh overleveraged or just
    not exposed but I mean this is a nice
    little higher low potential reversal
    candle right now and we’ve had some bad
    news right this should be this should be
    a terrible candle if if meta drops 20 %
    and we’re a tech stock we’re not this
    should be a ter terrible candle if gold
    is a Senor retracement we’re not this
    should be a terrible candle with bad
    economic data it’s not I don’t think it
    matters on a day-to-day basis to be
    clear I’m just saying Bitcoin just going
    sideways we don’t need to figure it out
    every day yeah yeah and I I saw that I
    saw your Tweet about that too is that
    it’s it’s not correlated anymore to risk
    assets and I I think that’s an
    interesting hypothesis it it sometimes
    appears to be but I think it’s in this
    interim period where you’re right I
    think it’s it’s slowly
    decoupling more yeah I just think
    correlation has to be specified to a
    time frame and people don’t do it so
    it’s confusing same with bullish or
    bearish right it’s on a time frame you
    can be shorting something you’re bullish
    on for a day if you think it’s going to
    go up forever and it’s just very
    confusing there’s times when it’s
    correlated of course if you have big
    events uh all correlations go to one and
    then they you know unhinge once again
    and for now I think it’s just kind of
    chopping sideways so it’s it’s
    about the big test and that is right now
    Bitcoin is Bucking beta we have to that
    I mean certainly lately and the key
    levels I think about and I show this in
    my chart is like 5,000 S&P 500 and
    60,000 agree on bitcoin if if we get the
    S&P 500 break below 5,000 and Bitcoin
    stays above 60,000 that’s a could
    significant sign that bitcoin’s bucking
    um bucking beta that would be a good
    sign but we still have to get through
    the big test and all know they all off
    from the record highs and as you said
    earlier we expect we both expect Scott I
    know about you expect that 10%
    correction s sp5 but it’s nothing let’s
    get through that and see how Bitcoin
    responds right now that’s where it is
    it’s to me that’s why I show you this
    chart and this is autoscaled on these
    bmark charts to you know I have to go
    back you go back to like September 2021
    it put these as the key support levels
    right
    now yeah interes yeah I was just going
    to say and Gareth touched on this
    earlier Mike but I I have the chart up
    Gareth you just want to bring it I
    literally was just wanted to calculate
    so this is s S&P obviously SPX it seen
    6% right at the bottom there a few days
    ago so 5.91% but if you look at the cues
    we’ve already gotten that 8% retracement
    right so I I don’t think maybe I’m wrong
    but I don’t think 10% is going to move
    the needle with policy I think we’d
    actually see need to see a much bigger
    retracement if we’ve already gotten to
    eight on Tech I think you got to be
    talking about 15 or 20 for the te fed to
    really take notice because this 8% on
    Tech has kind of been a nothing Burger
    as far as perception I think I think
    most people don’t even know it’s down to
    be honest they haven’t even probably
    looked yeah no I actually think you’re
    right about that especi especially tech
    tech is is definitely more volatile and
    I think it probably has to be down
    closer to that 20 handle before it
    really forces the FED of the hand the
    hand of the FED to to cut rates so so in
    terms of just going back to the crypto
    side here you know a lot of these
    altcoins have fallen like 40 50% from
    their highs like is the altcoin bull
    market not happening or did it happen
    already because all I heard for the
    longest time is just wait the altcoin
    bull Market’s going to come and and then
    these stocks drop 50% yeah I mean I I
    think that we’ve had some uh you know I
    think that we’ve definitely had
    some individual big price moves still to
    the upside even in the context of these
    draw downs but I listen I’ve been
    tweeting about it for a month I got was
    getting the classic eviscerated I’m
    trying to find it here you go right I
    said this on March 18 and my opinion
    hasn’t changed that’s five weeks ago I
    have some concerns uh top signals I
    would normally look for when I’m not
    foming or present meme coins going
    insane huge run on alt historically
    overbought bearish Divergence is showing
    across the board on high time frames and
    Max greet so every single I would look
    for when I’m uh not in the market was
    there for a top when we were in the
    70,000 right and that’s for altcoins as
    well so none of this surprises me but I
    will say now if we’re talking about
    sentiment as I said we’ve seen a flip
    the same Euphoria we have at 74 for all
    of this I think we’re getting that same
    Panic uh down here in the low 60s so I
    think we’re going to start to see alts
    move again and I think I haven’t looked
    I mean I have this but I know that even
    the memes had started pumpy again I’d
    seen maybe it was yesterday the dog with
    hat was up 20 or 30% or some of these
    things so the second that there’s any
    glimmer of hope the DG’s go right back
    at it you know um but I think that
    listen this was a very natural time with
    the having and narratives for us to just
    cool off and scare some people out of
    the market you can’t go up forever and
    you can’t let people win at the casino
    which is what the mcoin market was and
    is can’t win forever they got to get
    washed out and then you got to get some
    new
    blood yeah absolutely um what what do
    you guys think about the The Moves In
    other Commodities so there’s there’s
    Commodities like cocoa up insane amounts
    there’s coffee that’s been on a bull run
    I mean the moving coffee has been
    actually incredible uh to the upside
    kind of un not as talked about as C here
    but we’ve had this huge breakout here
    we’re getting a retrace I mean Mike are
    you thinking like are these Commodities
    all going to come crashing down or is
    there some legs and further upside here
    on something like coffee or or Coco Coco
    will if history’s a guided did the same
    thing to the peak in 1977 and took it
    out this year it had some pretty good
    technical signals that some of us are
    all over that did really well but at
    10,000 it’s going to break down coffee
    it’s just a matter of time it’s how it’s
    How Commodities work they’re not like
    equities they go down because they want
    go up they go up because they go down
    they’re very autocorrelated I can show
    you a little chart on Broad Commodities
    I’m going to show you I think broad
    commodity Market is significantly
    peaking with 5% two notes that’s what I
    show you in this chart we have the five
    the the two note peing around 5% or
    touching 5% to me that was the level
    last year remember was the level that
    yields Peak that’s when crude oil Peak
    and that’s when Commodities Peak and
    that’s the same thing I show you here
    it’s like it’s all peaking right there
    at that level and let’s look at the the
    most significant commodity on the planet
    WTI Crude manage money net positions
    petroleum got to near 15% of open
    interest those are hedge funds see the
    last time it did that’s when crude oil
    Peak last year at 95 now we have
    management POS manag money net positions
    peing about the same thing 15% of open
    interest and crude O’s peaking at 87 so
    I see that with two signs that
    everything is potentially peing um and
    there’s one key thing that’s happening
    that’s the convergence the macro big
    picture of cgb’s which is Chinese
    government bonds with jgbs which is
    Japanese government bonds and key thing
    to look at is the the Chinese 10y note
    yield at 2.26% it’s the lowest in our
    database for about 20 years back to 2006
    it’s collapsing it’s one of the best
    indicators in the big picture of
    deflationary recessionary forces from
    the world’s most significant demand pole
    source for Commodities so you can listen
    to what they say the rules is you ignore
    what they say it’s just particularly in
    an autocratic Society has a vested
    interest in telling the narrative and
    watch what they do or watch surban yelds
    Z Bon yelds typically don’t lie that’s a
    sign of deflationary forces from from
    China is the is the yield curve still
    inverted or is it I mean is it I I think
    it is still inverted but is it is it
    starting to narrow at all I mean we know
    that recessions usually are triggered
    once that inversion un inverts right
    yeah so it’s usually What’s happen so I
    like to say if you look at the US 30
    yield at 4.81 is what 25 basis points
    less than fed funds around five and a
    quarter 5 point three and then the or 10
    know2 is about that much and then you
    look at that at the next the rest of the
    yield curve out to the rest of the world
    the next largest country in the planet
    in terms of GD GDP is China and their 10
    year note yield is 2.26% that’s half of
    our TBO rate that’s a pretty significant
    global economic sign for deflation and
    recession yes it’s been delayed
    significantly so partly because of one
    reason fiscal massive M fiscal stimulus
    in the the US and of course we’ve had
    this little wealth effect pick up in the
    stock market but that’s where I think
    everything tilts over I’ve never seen
    the inordinate burden of the US Stock
    Market going up more significant than
    now ever meaning the stock market has to
    go up Al otherwise if the US Stock
    Market tilts lower those deflationary
    dominoes start trickling down hard and
    curve shows it Commodities show it um
    and everything else is kind of holding
    and waiting on that so so what are for
    both of you guys like what are some of
    the biggest risks right now um you know
    I happen to just bring up the dollar Yen
    chart um holy cow I mean talk about a
    breakout out of a long a big wedge going
    back to early 2022 here but I mean like
    what do you guys see is like the
    potential Black Swan situations is is
    and and maybe maybe Mike you could even
    explain to the viewers like why is the
    dollar Yen going up like this is that a
    negative and if so why is it a negative
    so I’m I want to start with that it’s
    it’s the Unstoppable force of the
    strengthening dollar that is breaking
    things on a global basis so first look
    at us interest rates 5% virtually every
    other country in the world there below
    that in fact they can’t wait to cut in
    Europe why can’t they because they have
    the US interest rates are so high
    they’re currencies are going to collapse
    the dollar is Unstoppable at the moment
    then you go to to things like cryptos
    you can see the dollar has been adopted
    so to me that’s the problem is the
    dollar is too strong and that’s the
    history of the dollar now people put put
    has just declined over time it has over
    versus gold and Bitcoin but versus a
    basket of other Fiat currencies
    particularly the Yen the dollar just
    goes up and that’s the problem for the
    whole world to me and I I’ll I I’ll
    trigger over to what’s the biggest
    problem with that is that’s part of the
    lose lose for alus assets you see that
    chart what’s been really been driving
    the strength in the dollar since the
    2011 bottom or so is is the
    outperformance of US Stock Market now
    the US Stock Market is at the highest
    ever versus the msci XU
    it’s the highest ever it’s 25y year High
    versus Commodities and there’s the
    problem the US Stock Market basically
    has to start underperforming Oro down
    for the dollar to go down which is the
    lose lose for all risk assets and that’s
    what you show there is now the Japanese
    well that’s S&P 500 but the Japanese
    have to intervene their economy their
    their currency collaps and just think of
    the price of crude oil in their country
    as like doubled this year and they’re
    very much deand pull importer of
    Commodities everything’s getting
    expensive in terms of things they have
    to import because their currency is um
    melting yeah yeah what I just brought up
    here is the S&P versus the hangang and
    you can see the Divergence there is just
    Inc I mean that is incredible that
    Divergence in those two stock markets
    and now now would you say that there’s a
    potential for a reversion here where the
    stock the S&P Falls and and the hangsang
    let’s say rallies and then kind of in
    the middle well the Japan the the
    Japanese have been significant buyers of
    ETFs in Japan and there’s very little
    reason that China should not do do the
    same in fact we had there was recent a
    trillions episode was is our ETF um
    podcast ja the Chinese will start buying
    their own why not I mean they should
    that’s how they’re going to help solve
    that problem that’s what you fully
    expect that so I fully expect to have a
    tradeable bounce in things in like the
    HSI the Japanese the Chinese are
    probably already buying their own bonds
    um I mean and they’re probably buying
    copper they’re certainly buying gold
    yeah gold why not stocks you got mean
    look what so they’re in a severe
    deflationary Force you can’t really see
    in their data but in they like you see
    there in stock market you have it and
    that’s how did the US end the
    significant deflation of 30s we the base
    versus um
    gold
    yeah oh wow um all right Scott so give
    me give me some of your risk factors
    like what’s what are some risk factors
    for the economy and maybe even for
    crypto like I mean all right so so
    potential 990,000 on on bitcoin what
    could derail that I think there’s a lot
    of things that could derail that as I
    said you’re you’re uncorrelated till
    you’re not so if we see some sort of
    Black Swan with uh the economy I think
    that obviously that could put some
    pressure on it I think you know if
    there’s a I always joke that you know
    the best marketing for Bitcoin the best
    thing for prices is higher prices right
    so but but that goes the other way too
    right so like if we start to break and
    close candles below 60 you start to see
    those new ETF entrance start to sell off
    a bit maybe we you know push down into
    the low 50s High 40s nothing would
    surprise me 30 40% retraces but listen I
    don’t think there’s anything glaring
    right now within the crypto sphere
    itself that could send us much lower or
    stop the cycle but that doesn’t mean
    that I don’t have strong opinions
    loosely held and that something could
    change that I mean listen if we
    literally enter a period of stagflation
    here um and that becomes very clear you
    know I have my doubts about the data
    presented and whether it’s real or not
    ever at this point um but I think it’s
    going to take a hell of a lot of
    headwinds to stop
    Bitcoin with the narrative even if it’s
    just animal spirits of the having an
    ETFs in an election year you know before
    potentially the end of the year or or q1
    next time I kind of feel like I honestly
    my my my case now it’s one I made before
    is like maybe it’s just really boring
    for a few months and that includes some
    lower prices and some higher prices but
    I also wouldn’t be surprised to see that
    20% correction in the stock market
    through the summer when it’s not a huge
    risk for the election and then all of a
    sudden we ramp up and are talking about
    a stock market pump in September October
    and November just in time for the
    election so I think we could see some
    real Shenanigans in the next uh six
    months for sure do you guys do either of
    you guys view the elections as being a
    potential Black Swan like is there
    something that could happen that would
    freak the markets out I mean and I’m not
    saying which candidate wins I mean I’m
    just saying like are there repercussions
    from something I mean we saw you know
    January 6 we saw other things like that
    or or is this more of just something to
    get through and then then start looking
    at other factors like the Japanese the
    the dollar Yen and these are the other
    bigger more important things remember
    Chad something like that a contested
    election is a big problem I think it’s
    more the ladder it’s something to get
    through um and the key question we had
    at the Gren and check and app for in
    Miami and my my panel was okay is gonna
    be is there gonna be Trump 2.0 what do
    that mean and polls are kind of heading
    that way
    still
    yeah I mean I don’t think that there’s
    I think it’s going to be a wild time
    right uh between between Ai and lack of
    trust in media and government and
    inevitably people questioning the
    election results but I also think that’s
    what’s priced in now I think we become
    such a nonsensical society and that the
    market just shrugs most things off and
    continues on because it’s always
    nonsense so yeah uh I I more think it’s
    something to get through and then we’ll
    see I mean here the other Black Swan
    just in the World obviously is maybe
    Mike can push back I don’t know but the
    I mean a trillion dollars every hundred
    days added to the debt seems uh
    unsustainable and it seems like they’re
    just quietly trying to keep doing that
    in the background to keep uh things
    propped up but that that that rent comes
    due eventually and they’re going to have
    to refinance that debt and I cannot
    comprehend how they’re going to do that
    yeah and think about don’t know maybe
    I’m I’m not a macro econom an economist
    I don’t know but it just you mean you
    don’t believe in modern monetary Theory
    no I’m not a big mmt guy well that that
    was part of what I heard came out today
    when we saw these stagflation type
    numbers and people are saying well what
    do you expect when the econom is
    completely dependent on government
    fiscal fiscal stimulus for survival at
    the same time it’s keeping the FED um
    tightening or keeping the FED tight um
    that’s a just a poor trajectory and
    that’s obviously what favors gold and
    Bitcoin and and like you said but what I
    see going ahead is tremendous trading
    opportunities and the things I see from
    very low volatility very high interest
    rates and yields plunging in the rest of
    the world it’s becoming less of a buy
    hold Buy and Hold for risk assets K one
    more question and this just popped into
    my mind but we’ve seen earnings coming
    out right pretty much every day today
    after the close me um Google alphabet
    and and Microsoft Intel’s reporting uh
    yesterday we had meta obviously um and
    and we we’ve seen a lot of good earnings
    that are beating estimates and then the
    guidance is very very weak is that an
    indicator of something bigger on the
    horizon or are these companies like just
    talking down their numbers so that next
    quarter they can beat him by a mile
    again and again I ask that because we’re
    all kind of watching to see are we going
    to have a recession later this year
    maybe this is an indicator that that
    could be
    happening is that like when golfers uh
    go and they juice up their handicap and
    play really badly before a tournament so
    that they can come higher handicap yeah
    that’s so the CEOs can get their bonuses
    and make themselves look even better I
    don’t know
    what you think of that
    [Music]
    yeah got that your you go ahead I no I
    mean I I think anything’s possible think
    Mike’s in a trade he all of a sudden got
    very focused on something no I’m
    actually trying to scale this I was
    trying to see if if this month is an
    outside month down the S&P 500 it is in
    e- minis but the actual index did not
    take out last weeks last month’s high
    and still below um the last month’s low
    kind of playing with it signals that
    usually will watch and they work great
    until you trade trade them and then they
    don’t work anymore Goa all right so
    Scott so to you then do you think do you
    think that any of these weak um you know
    guidance things are anything more than
    than CEOs talking down their numbers do
    you think there’s something to it well I
    do think it’s interesting that meta
    dropped 20% because early allegedly
    because Zuckerberg showed up and said
    we’re spending more on AI than we
    anticipated and that was the reason and
    if you remember the way that meta really
    finally bottomed was not because they
    showed more profit potential or because
    the business was growing it’s because
    they cut a ton of jobs part of my
    French and basically you know the best
    way to make money is to save money
    mentality and so it’s that they’re
    spending more on something that I think
    everyone actually objectively thinks
    they should spend more on being that AI
    is the future and That Rocks the stock
    20% so I think to to some degree when
    you just dig under the hood of these
    things the companies maybe aren’t doing
    that much better and the stocks are
    moving based on how much they’re
    spending or not spending uh over any
    period of time and that to me just gives
    me a bit of pause I don’t think that’s
    the best way to value a stock yeah no I
    agree and in fact IBM describing you’re
    describing froy stocks yeah exactly and
    I was just going to point out that IBM
    missed guidance by a little bit but then
    they announced a buying out of of
    another company which again the idea
    that seemed to really be a negative as
    they’re obviously spending billions of
    dollars to buy this another expenditure
    right so so just interesting things
    there and then we can’t forget you
    pootle man I mean I don’t know how many
    of us eat there but that they just that
    stock just keeps going up and up and up
    a lot of burritos being sold yeah that
    is a lot of burritos a lot of stomach I
    would I would love to see the uh stock
    for Pepto Bismol if that’s uh following
    uh the chipot but cool guys all right
    well I think that’s a great place to end
    it with a burrito blowout so let’s uh
    let’s call it a week here or uh Market
    Mavericks I thank you guys uh socials
    are at the bottom guys make sure to
    follow everyone here you guys are
    awesome always bring the aame here for
    our our amigo group here and hopefully I
    I’m not going to guarantee it folks but
    I’m hoping we’re back next Thursday
    we’ll check in Scott this I’m back I’m
    back for sure next Thursday you guys
    choose to do I can’t help all right guys
    thank you so much for tuning in we’ll
    see you all soon take care bye

    Welcome to the ‘Market Mavericks’ Show, where action-packed analysis meets profitable trade setups, led by three of the world’s foremost chart technicians. This is your front-row seat to the fast-paced world of trading and investing, stocks, crypto, commodities, and more.

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    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.

    17 Comments

    1. Foreign & military ‘aid’ 🗡️ ‘Money printing’ 💰

      Shield 🛡️ your savings from inflation with Bitcoin & Litecoin. Hashrates at all time highs ✈️

    2. Just making a quick comment because I’m not watching as I’m done with Gareth. He’s been wrong since 20k and even if it goes down the clock strikes 12 twice a day. I like and find value with your channel but I won’t be back when Gareth is on. Sorry and not sorry

    3. Wow…. I am blown away by this presentation. I was an insecure 59 year old, in January 2018 when I started buying Bitcoin/crypto. Everyone though I was irrational. Most still do. I put my income and savings and watched the value drop each month but for some reason really believed in Bitcoin and alt coins/blockchain even though I don't totally understand. Finally, the crypto market started turning around and I am astonished at the value of my crypto currency portfolio today. I engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin….At the heart of this evolution is Francine Duguay, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment.

    4. Entered the video and immediately left again…. No way I'm going to watch anything with Garreth Soloway on it…. Thumps DOWN

      I don't care how smart he is and how great a track record he got. The guy is toxic for the crypto space and he's NOT trustworthy. Why do you even want to advocate for this kind of people. Find someone with a constructive and trustworthy mindset for the show and I will be back

    5. Your video serves as a calming beacon, particularly when financial markets are in tumult. Your analysis offers a prudent course of action, fitting seamlessly with the current stage of the economic cycle. Nonetheless, one cannot overlook the expanding mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies since 2019, as well as the fervent discourse surrounding prospective Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Might these elements sustain the market in this particular cycle? Speculation abounds that we are on the verge of a significant market upswing, making this a moment of great import for any discerning investor. My own portfolio, enriched by 34 bitcoins in a mere seven-week interval, serves as a compelling testament to Ryan Kelly's financial wisdom….

    6. Revised format makes sense. Garett asks questions. Mike and Scott give answers and opinions. I have interest in Scott and Mike opinions. Gareth not so much

    7. Potential black swan : Biden declares a national climate emergency, which then allows him to issue a series of draconian and fascist executive orders to eff3ctively take full co trol of US, no more elections, other than Putin style elections.

    8. Potential black swan : third party does good enough in the election to garner 5 or 8 electors from electoral college. Neither Rs or Ds get a majority of electoral college due to the third party. We have no result from electoral college in declaring next president and have to dig into constitution for the backup process for choosing president when electoral college does not produce a 50 Percent winner. Large percentage of Americans are aghast and can’t believe the backup process, chaos in the streets ensues, Biden incapable of stopping the chaos, or chooses to intentionally NOT stop the chaos

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