John Feneck: Gold Miners Set Up for Strong Q2, Plus 9 Stocks I’m Tracking

John Feneck: Gold Miners Set Up for Strong Q2, Plus 9 Stocks I’m Tracking

[Music] I’m Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is Joy fenick portfolio manager and consultant at fck Consulting if you enjoy this interview make sure you subscribe to our Channel and leave us a comment John great to have you here no problem Char good to see you again nice to be speaking with you and we’re cashing up I think after about two months and in that time we’ve seen gold have its ups and downs but I think generally we’re we’re fairly flat from where we were when we were speaking at that time so starting with gold as we begin most of our conversations what do you see coming in these summer months typically summer can be a quiet time are we in for a period of consolidation here for gold well at 2300 as we’re recording this I mean it wouldn’t surprise me to see more consolidation um however I think what you had said where you know our last interview two months ago was around the same price is important to note for investors that could be deemed two different ways one is negative that it hasn’t done anything that’s logical uh B however it’s really going to mean something to producing gold companies meaning that you know GDX being the largest ETF out there with 15 billion in assets the top three Holdings there are newon ago and baric right uh anym am and gold GLD so when you look at about a third of the ETF being in these three names with earnings coming up in July what’s different this time around for these three companies and other gold producers is that they’ve been able to clip a really nice margin on what their costs are versus what the current price of gold is right so if they’re all un sustaining cost on average is say 1,400 an ounce and Gold’s at 2,300 an ounce for weeks and weeks on end here they’re going to be able to post a really good quarter and I think the market the broad Market is really missing this because of all the noise right I mean Tech continues to do well S&P hit an all-time high since we last talked I mean there’s a lot of distractions out there which I get but I think value managers are going to start to see these stocks in the large cap gold space start to do much better and it’ll catch their attention eventually here later the as the year progresses yeah that’s exactly what I was going to ask you when you started talking about the gold reports coming out soon for the second qu is this the time when we’ll start to see that mainstream interest finally in the gold equities come back I think it’ll take a little bit more time I mean July will will be a nice reminder to LSC value managers and midcap value managers that these stocks are worth their time however will it be like an Allin kind of event no what we’re going to need to see in our view is the broad Market to start to pull back and that will create what we call a sector rotation into some safer Havens like a numont or ago right like that’s what managers are waiting for because remember charotte most portfolio managers have to be benched against a particular Index right so if you’re a large cap value manager in the US your Ben against the Russell you know value index if you’re benching against the S&P as a large capap core manager right you have all these different metrics you’ve got to meet to get a bonus um whether you’re a us or Canadian pm and um that’s why there’s so much chasing going on within the tech sector is that you can’t be underwe Tech right now and expect to outperform it’s just impossible so it’s it’s feeding on itself in a negative way um in my opinion because you’re starting to see large cap value managers justify more of a core position you’re starting to see large cap core managers justify more of a growth position and and what you what you’re the end result of this is that more and more people are looking at growth earier things instead of sing true to their objectives all right and speaking about the broad Market I think in our last conversation you had mentioned if in September we don’t see an interest rate cut from the fed we could see some trouble there so I want to get your take on that what do you see coming at this point from the FED in September and going beyond that the impact on on the broad Market sure so to update everyone you know June I guess 12th that was was the last fed meeting and that happened in between our last interview um the Fed was pretty clear that um they’re looking at one cut for all of this year um and that was new from them to put actually in writing and to say multiple times um that was the headline on CNBC and Bloomberg you know a minute after the release right so like now it’s on the table before it was talked about but remember January 1 we were talking four to five cuts now we’re talking one cut so in six months time that’s how drastically this has changed so that’s why I said on our last recording and I’ll I’ll reiterate September 18th meeting is very important and it’s it’s less important now from a willm cut perspective because I think there’s a 64% probability they will cut 25 bips on September 18th as we get more economic data here in June and July we’ll be able to get a better sense of whether or not that’s going to increase in in you know reliability um but even so a quarter point is not going to save anyone in the real estate market that’s feeling crunched by higher interest rates um it’s it’s simply one cut right and it’s disappointing so I think that could be the Catalyst for a selloff is how’s comets following potentially a 25 basis point cut in September right if he’s going to indicate that we’re not going to cut at the other meetings later this year the Market’s going to hate that and um I think there’s a lot of people banking on the FED having their back because what let’s face it the FED has had people’s back since the 0809 correction and and they’ve continued to do you know whatever is necessary to keep the economy chugging ahead this time I think it’s different because they really pained themselves into a corner um and let’s face it too I mean we have a US election coming up Trump has been very vocal that if he gets in then pows out and so that’s going to cause some friction as well right so we’ll know more about that in November definitely many factors at play there and of course will’ll be checking in with you when we get closer to that time but for now help me unravel what happens to gold in that scenario because of course we’ve been waiting for an interest rate cut and I’ve been told many times of course that will help the gold price but gold has already been moving so what what do you think happens to Gold um in that scenario you could see a new- jerk reaction down on all assets in September because September and October historically have been the worst Market months going back to 1929 right so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a NRI reaction down in Miners and medals however I would see a quick move back up um which would take people by surprise I think that aren’t in our sector because it will be seen as a safer Haven and that sector rotation I’ve been alluding to will be in full force right where people are starting to see okay I can’t be 30 to 40% Tech anymore in this an environment I’ve got to find other avenues to make money for my clients okay I think that makes a lot of sense the way you’ve outlined how that could play out I want to also check in on other factors driving gold I believe we’ve talked probably many times in the past about the impact of Central Bank buying on gold and recently I believe the world gold Council had a report saying central banks are still interested in buying gold that continues to be a factor however we did hear also that China didn’t add to its reserves in May so I wanted to check in with you on central banks and what we can expect there yeah great question um Central Bank buying has been leading the charge for gold here for the last couple of years um China has been the most prominent country out there in the news and that’s why when we saw June 7th that they weren’t going to extend things for a 19th straight month that the market didn’t like that that being the gold and silver market um but I don’t I don’t really worry about that kind of thing because non forign payrolls was also June 7th which came in 90,000 jobs hot and that generally means bad things for Gold Silver and Myers when you get a hot headline number like that so I think it was a combination that day of the news it wasn’t necessarily all China um but when you actually look under the hood to see what’s happening on both of those issues China is going to continue to be a consumer goal and secondly nonar payrolls when you look at long-term jobs uh May over May long-term jobs full-time jobs uh it is actually flat year-over-year so you’re not seeing this kind of job growth that Biden is pushing out there to the public because look it’s an election year you know you’re you’re going to talk up anything good when it comes to job growth right and the headline did look good it’s just you have to look deeper than that to see that we’re not creating a lot of new full-time jobs um and I would argue that like we’re going to see a much diff more difficult time period uh for whoever gets in office in 2025 to kind of manage through this so the elction has come up a couple of times already in this conversation and I wonder when you look at that are there ways that you would trade the election or try to do that or is that something that you treat as something that you wouldn’t treat around yeah great question too I mean look um people say well Donald Trump wasn’t very supportive of mining um during his time in office uh I would say that he’s a pretty um what’s the word I I’m I’m gonna probably say the wrong thing here so I’m GNA be careful about what I say let’s just say that he had will adapt right like he will look at you know you look at Christy Nome who’s one of his possible BPS she is in charge of of South Dakota right a very mining friendly State um I think that he will come on board to The Narrative of creating us jobs right like not that Biden doesn’t want to do that but I think I think Biden is much more conservative when it comes to supporting mining in the states I think Trump would be much more open-minded to expanding you know things and increasing permitting times Etc which I know is kind of like not mainstream view but look um when you look at China and how far ahead they are in the Commodities race I was saying on kiito’s program you know just June 17th here very recently with Jeremy that China is so far ahead in production in some of these medals that we have to do something and as I talk to CEOs in this jior space which we can get to here in a minute I would put them into the special situations critical minerals bucket you know they are talking more and more to DOD At Doe exacts that they ever had before this year um so I think that’s very bullish um it’s not showing up in prices yet in some of these stocks that’s for sure um and I know it’s it’s been a long painful couple of years for investors but just know that you know I am encouraged by the kind of conversations I’m hearing from CEOs in terms of just the last two to three months in terms of who they’re talking to in the US government okay we’ll definitely come back to to those special situation stocks toward the end but before we go there I want to ask you about gold equities in your portfolio so I believe when we spoke last you had about 40% of your portfolio in Gold stocks you can correct me if I got that mistaken but I wanted to check in and see if you have updates on any of those that you would want to talk about sure I think we mentioned first Nordic Metals which was uh FN mcf um and that has done quite well um they basically are going to continue down that path of building out their project in Sweden um just seeing it from an analyst perspective I don’t know that finland’s assets are going to be core assets for them uh because their Swedish projects are doing quite well and not the finland’s too far from Sweden but I think they may want to consolidate you know their efforts in Sweden um they have already have a joint venture with ago there which is really positive um so the stocks just done really well since we last mentioned it around 16 17 cents it’s now at 24 a half uh it hit 30 us briefly last week so I mean there’s there’s definitely an upside at a stock like that Taj Singh ran Discovery silver and he was responsible for making a lot of money for investors in that stock in Mexico so you know this is a different story completely um however we as you know tend to look at management as our first screen and we like people that are successful in minting as opposed to people that maybe just starting up as a as a newbie in the space because they don’t have a track record right I mean when people look at my track record and perform you go to our performance tab on authetic consulting.com if I wasn’t performing people wouldn’t want to follow me right I mean that’s just it’s just natural I think um so that’s one name that we talked about another name that we’re starting to get more excited about um would be Nev gold right now na and Canada na F in the states they came out with a great press release Here June 20th that I think the market just didn’t really read correctly um I mean sometimes you just get people that are trying to sell into strength Charlotte as you know um they’ve held the stock for a while and they they use that news item as a liquidity event which I’ve never really understood unless you really are up against that a need the cash I mean if you’ve waited this long for the last you know from 2020 to now this is not the time to be selling certain stocks this is the time to be accumulating our weakness because we are in a confirm B market I think for gold and silver is getting there so NB gold explores for copper and gold um they put out great copper news on June 20th because their project Zeus is literally 20 kilometers away from the Hercules project um Hercules I would argue was probably one of the top three mining stops stocks in the news last year for this project you know so they are um in Idaho I think it’s right the eighth best jurisdiction globally um and and they have all this gold as well so I mean there’s I like stocks that you can win multiple ways in right and you know the share structure is intact um Brandon used to work for a big cap Gold stock so he has been on the other side of the desk meaning that he has worked with companies like his size in trying to determine whether or not they have so he’s positioning himself I think quite nicely with some of the majors he’s talking to and we’ll see what happens I mean you can never know for sure but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some you know one of the ways that you can not delute shareholders is to do a joy Adventure right and sometimes it’s it’s it’s gratuitous for for clients sometimes not but I am a proponent of not destroying the share structure right and so like if if we can find a way to invest in a stock where they can take a 9.9 give a 9.9 or 19.9% percentage to a major it’s kind of comforting right because you won’t have a marathon gold situation on your hands where they don’t own 30% of of the shares outstanding and then calber came in last November and took them out for a song right in the 42 or 43 set range I think it was trading out the day before so it’s it’s like you know we’re in this for a longer period of time than most investors but we’re Al it to make money and if we’re not making money why do it I mean it’s it’s just not it’s a portfolio diversify our goal it’s over yes but you have to make money at the end of the day or clients are going to fire you so I think I think the CEOs I just mentioned Taj and Brandon both understand this and that’s important is that they’re not just sitting around you know uh coming up with a game plan down the road they already have a game plan in place okay really good to get those gold updates and now I think let’s head over into silver so I think you briefly mentioned silver is nearly in a bull market and I wanted to check in on what’s going on with the price because since our last conversation we have seen Silver get past that $30 level although we’re not above that right at this moment so maybe we could talk about upside and downside levels for silver right now because you’re usually pretty good at pinpointing those for us yeah thanks I’ve been investing in silver coin since well 24 years now so I mean I follow the price of silver like gosh that’s a quarter of a century that’s really making me feel old right now um but but honestly like silver is just the most frustrating commodity out there right so like it’s it’s going to Buck most people and it probably did it again to a lot of people here thinking we had a confirmed breakout I would argue that getting over 26 in out which we said on your show many times last year was problematic was very bullish this year so that’s one positive takeaway the second posit POS takeaway is what you mentioned that $30 silver was Major resistance for 11 years up until recently right so like that’s huge I wish we would have held 30 for a bit longer you know I mean now that we’ve broken down below 30 again it’s frustrating um do I see us getting to that 25 to 26 level again that was problematic for so many months if we do I’ll tell you I’ll be a buyer you know I’ve bought silver twice this year at 24 on the Node in 2501 an ounce um we’re going to buy again in that range of 24 to 26 if we get the opportunity um I just don’t see it happening given all the things that are happening globally since we last talked I mean there’s just so many things the North Korea news Russia adopting Chinese currency like there’s so many things that can support precious metals here um I just don’t see it happening but I will say that the silver stops really responded it in to the move of silver over and they have pulled back since so now if you’re a newer investor to the sector just take a look at a three or six month chart of some of these silver Juniors I mean they really moved a lot and they pulled back a lot so that gives you an idea of how volatile this can be um but it also gives you a sense for the upside right um we talked about guato Silver oner Show last time you know I think two times ago was trading at 13 cents which was a ridiculous price I think I use that word or insane or something which rarely will say but you know with a with a company that is producing a million ounces of silver per quarter and then you know four producing mines with three Ms I mean they have a real company here for that to go from you know 30 5 cents I think the 13 was was kind of kind of nuts and now it’s trading at 18 uh but it had run to like 23 24 so so it has Consolidated a bit will we get back to that 13 range I’ll think so you know and so I’ve got two orders out there Charlotte for stocks like this one is at that 13 to 14 level see if I can get filled secondly I’ll have another order at 17 or 18 right below the bid if I’m interested in buying something silver related that day so that at least they get some shares um and we’ve bought that stock I don’t know six or seven times now over the course of six months so we leg into things we don’t build huge positions all at once I think that’s really flawed and we’ve said that you know many times before but just to reiterate um and you know looking at other names in silver right now I mean the silver large cap stuff you could look at ETFs like s s j as the junior either of those would work for General exposure you know um they kind of are similar to GDX and gdxj on the gold side okay thank you for going through what’s going on in silver as well and I think it is always good to get the that reminder on how you can go into these stocks not all at once but gradually so let’s now go back to the special situations that you were talking about so I always find that you are looking at some really interesting plates so let’s let’s see what you have on the go there right now sure um so where do I start I think we talked about golden medal um once or twice that’s GMT LF um it has no Canadian ticker it’s in l did as well um at a ticker there is g.l but if you look at g.l today it did over a million shares which is the biggest volume I’ve seen in quite some time on the back of very positive news that they might be on to a new py discovery um in Nevada which is great great jurisdiction um Oliver is a young CEO but he’s sharp he’s aggressive he isn’t aggressive in terms of just taking money hand over fist so which I love if you look at the news items he’s taken you know a million dollars here 750k there he’s not blowing up the share structure just to reiterate again how important that is right because we mentioned this stock on your show at 16 cents a few months ago it’s trading at 32 now so it’s doubled but it’s got further to go uh why I think that a stock like that that is not only looking for you know copper Etc but it’s also an Explorer for tungsten which is a critical mineral on the US list that is something that’s unique right there 91% of tungsten last year was produced in China so we produced none here in the US zero like at some point the dod and doe is going to say okay we’re going to throw you a grant here because they have to I mean it’s just it’s obvious to me that this is going to happen it’s just a matter of when I don’t care as an investor if it’s this year or next year they have to get their act together at the government level and they know this so you know fir weed was another one that we’ve mentioned on other shows um but fire weed is a much bigger stock in terms of capitalization so we like the small and micro cap stuff which has the tendency to move better on good news um another one that fits that bill we’ve talked about before in your show is first tarium F sttf in the states Fel in Canada they had great news since we last talked they brought in 29 million bucks us from a company called resolve which I had never really heard of before but in doing due diligence they you know do business with apple Tiffany a bunch of large cap names so I think there’s been some misunderstanding by the market that you know this deal might not get paid we see that sometimes right where a deal gets announced and then it doesn’t really materialize over time clearly this company resolve has the ability to pay for starium uh for whatever you know deal that they can strike down the road as well so when you have a a small small company getting funded by a much larger company with with Deep Pockets that’s a huge positive I think I mean um I think it’s just as I’ve said uh on a show just recently I think it’s a matter of time before analysts start realizing that this stock has a lot of potential as not only a Mining stock but as a tech stock um because tarium is also you know one of those minerals that China dominates in terms of production um and lastly we don’t mention oil and gas too much in your show but I spent a lot of years in in oil and gas and MLPs and um I just talked to a new CEO for us uh which is Delane weeks over at Ancor resources and that ticker is amk in Canada AM KF in the states um they just came out with really good news today saying that they were shedding one of their noncore assets for 600 Grand US not a huge amount of money but it’s allowing them to Pivot now and focus on drilling their gold and copper targets um so it’s it’s an unusual situation in that they have golden copper exploration in one bucket they’ve got oil and gas production in another bucket and then they have a third bucket for carbon credits so there’s a lot of ways for investors to win the chart looks really good um it’s it’s made a series of higher lows for the last few months um but it it does trade somewhat thinly and that’s one of the reasons that you know we we look at stuff like this Charlotte because it’s not going to take much to move a stock that trades that thinly with a large bit ass um it’s it’s pretty attractive um there’s a good press release they put out I think it was late May uh early June just talking about their oil production going up you know for the last five months in a row so you know again I think oil is going to do better for the next one to two years than it is now and we like little micro cap companies that are well-run like this okay definitely some really interesting companies there for everyone to look into if they would like to and before we turned the camera on we also said we would look into uranium and royalty companies so interested to hear about that I know uranium is very popular with our audience but I haven’t been able to have as many conversations around that lately so interested to hear what you have to say sure um we’ve talked about Forum multiple times on your show and that’s why I like to revisit certain names to let people know that we’re still tracking it or owning it we still you know own this stock um it’s it’s FD cff in the states they put out news today that said that they um basically are moving into uh the droll season which is great um that’s what people have been looking for from them um they’re doing this on time and on budget so uh love to see that I think uh Dr Hunter does a really good job in the field of being you know grounded about expectations but I will say if you look at their news last fall they literally drilled one tenth of the amount of drilling they’re going to be doing now because they didn’t have a lot of cash and they still made a new discovery in the Theon Basin so that’s where they’re spending their efforts right now predominantly is in the Theon this summer and I would expect they’re going to come out with a lot of news I’d say probably early August into Bieber Greek September 10th you know good timing um as people you know want to get to you know the major mining conferences in September um we say that to set up you know another stock that we’ve been starting to like look at more more closely which is F3 uranium uh which is fuu FF um in the states and I believe it’s fuu in Canada um they have put out just consistent news all year and we look for that from companies in sectors that you know let’s face it uranium was not on many people’s radar three years ago you know you know this is this is a commodity that caught like a lot of fire last year as you know it had a great you know January this year where spot ran to 109 um but I always I always try to tell investors like companies can only do so much right if there’s no news you know to just put out news for the sake of news is not really helpful but also abandoning shareholders and not putting on news for three months at a time is not a great strategy either so I think e three kind of strikes a nice balance there of just putting out you know stuff on their project that investors can get behind at this price um stock hit 41 cents here not too long ago and it’s trading at 24 a half right now so you know we’ve seen a lot of these uranium jior Charlotte pull back sharply uh from where they were in January or February well and on the note of uranium so just this week we had the Paladin fishion acquisition announced and I wonder if for you does that signal more m&a coming what are your thoughts there I can’t really say um I do think that it would make sense for many sub sectors of Commodities to you know to look at this whether it’s uranium gold silver whatever because you know uh putting together two companies to be a larger Target for a takeover or just go into production whatever their their goals may be make sense a lot of times but it also can be not so great you know in terms of upside for the investor you know you have to really assess that you know marriage of two companies and say to yourself is this what I bought the stock for in the first place right like was a merger of equals a lot of people would answer no to that so I think I think CEOs need to be mindful of this before they go and do what they’re going to do because look I mean their salaries are paid by shareholders like us yeah and if they’re not on board with that which I I don’t know everyone is um people vote with their dollars right I mean it’s uh it’s just it’s just the way it is and and and so I always encourage people to do the right thing by shareholders I think that’s what you need to be doing as a CEO to Garner more interest in what your stock is all about I think that’s very important and one other topic that I want to make sure not to forget is you mentioned that you have an event coming up in November and you’re just telling me about this before we turn the camera on so I’m excited to hear more about it could you could you tell me what it’s all about yeah it’s actually going to be in October um it’s October 20th through the 22nd and it’s going to be in Fort waterdale Florida at the Four Seasons um would love to have some of your listeners come out to that to join us uh we don’t have the registration documents out just yet that’ll probably take a week or two but uh you can fill out that registration Dock and we’ll take a hard look at you know having you there um we are going to just limit this to 35 companies because I find a lot of these conferences are getting really really crowded and the CEOs can’t have a meaningful impact when there’s 100 plus companies there sometimes right uh so we are also not going to limit this to just gold and silver companies we’ll have all Commodities representative so we’ll have you know a few royalty companies we’ll have a few copper companies we’ll have a few lithium companies we want to distribute this you know evenly amongst the sub sectors of commodi so there’s something of interest for everyone and my goal hopefully will achieve this is to really have more of an interactive conference where the CEOs walk away feeling they met a good amount of new heent worth retail uh in the US and uh investors walk away feeling they got really you know solid updates from the company so we’ll have a format that’s kind of a hybrid format Charlotte where it’s part 10one meetings all Bieber Creek and then part presentations like you would have at most conferences okay really exciting and I’m so sorry for getting the month wrong I’ll leave the information in the video description and I will get it right when it’s written there I think thank you for going over that and before I let you go I just want to check in is there any final thoughts you would leave investors with anything that we missed today sure um we’ve talked about this before but I’ll just say it again I find that this sector is um probably the most difficult sector to to look at on the equity side period end of story and if you’re try to do this by yourself you’re going to get in trouble um somehow someway you know it’s it’s really important for you to reach out to a professional like myself or someone else in the sector that can help you with going through the tea leaves year and I think investors are starting to see that more clearly now right I mean if you look at having a conversation about uranium in January I could tell you from 100 to 109 spot there were so many investors saying hey we’re going to take out that all-time high of 140 plus and we didn’t even come close to that right and so now you’re looking at your Holdings and saying what did I do to myself here attentionally right because not all stocks are created equal you have to know what is that cash balance what’s their debt balance what is their PR nois over the next 6 to 12 months you got to look at so many factors in this sector to be successful so you know take a look at our website F consulting.com we’ve got a newsletter as kind of a starting point which comes out a couple times a month we have you know realtime email updates which I think are extremely helpful um we talked about that China situation that you brought up Charlotte literally one minute after the news saying this was going to put pressure on gold and silver on June 7th we were absolutely right and people find that valuable right to get that information in their inbox when it happens as opposed to you know getting it a week later through a newsletter whether it’s mine or someone else’s okay really good and you’re so right it is good to have the information right away versus you know later where we can talk about it but it’s it’s later so thank you so much really good to talk with you and I’m sure we’ll be checking in again soon great thanks Charlotte of course and once again I’m Charlotte McLoud with investing.com and this is John fenick with fck Consulting thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our Channel we’d also love to hear your thoughts so leave us a comment below [Music]

John Feneck of @feneckcommoditiesreport shares his latest thoughts on the gold price, saying that after the second quarter’s record-setting levels miners should be due to share strong results.

He also discusses stocks he has his eye on right now.

John Feneck’s details:
Website: http://www.feneckconsulting.com
Email: john.feneck@yahoo.com
Twitter: @feneckconsult
Facebook: FeneckConsulting
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-feneck-26386a14/
YouTube: ‪@feneckcommoditiesreport
Newsletter: “Feneck Commodities Report”

This interview was filmed on June 25, 2024.

#Investing #Mining #Gold

0:00 – Intro
0:33 – Gold miners’ Q2 results set to impress
4:19 – Will the Fed cause a market selloff?
8:05 – Central bank buying and US election
12:26 – Gold stocks to watch
17:26 – Silver stocks to watch
21:21 – “Special situations” stocks to watch
26:28 – Uranium stocks to watch
30:51 – John’s October event and final thoughts
34:37 – Outro

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