BITCOIN AFTER THE CRASH, The Saving Grace For Bitcoin’s Price to Recover, Signal in Altcoins Was Key

BITCOIN AFTER THE CRASH, The Saving Grace For Bitcoin’s Price to Recover, Signal in Altcoins Was Key

[Music] hey what’s going on everybody this is the blockchain backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and Analysis today we’re going to be talking about the Bitcoin price chart as through the holiday weekend we got a new low set in there at $53,500 swooping through that low that was set back there on May 1st as the range for Bitcoin continues to live on now we’ll talk about where Bitcoin is at right now I don’t think there’s a whole lot more for me to say that wasn’t stated in my last video that was put out which was 54 minutes long talking about the state of crypto and the complications of Bitcoin and where it’s at right now of course we got everybody bull posting up here at these highs trying to get our way out because we’re you know very similar to what happens in past Cycles where Bitcoin gets back to the all-time high what does it always do when it gets back to the all-time high it goes for the breakout but of course the thing that always comes with those breakouts is expansion happening over there in the United States stock market which we haven’t had here everybody points to the NASDAQ the S&P and the Dow which are weighted with the largest caps in the United States stock market but what we’re not seeing is a participation of really anything else in this market I showed this in markets in the morning last Wednesday from Eric Tunis that the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 contributed to 77% of the index total return in the first half of 2024 and that is the second highest ever reading of that number which has only been beaten by one year and that is 207 which of course is prior to the great financial crisis you can see it’s rivaled by 1999 2020 what are all these years have in common 2007 2020 1999 they all had very big crashes in the United States stock market right and so here we are rivaling the very top spot which was the one right before the great financial crisis and so we often talk about it a lot right now that you know comparing to this to 2012 which was broad participation which you can see the top 10 biggest stocks only represented 19% compared to 77% right you have broad participation happening throughout markets down in here in 2012 broad participation happening in 2016 where it’s 26% or for the top 10% but then we get really really Consolidated here and that’s why underneath the hood the market looks so different and we talk about how it’s kind of like navigating uncharted waters for crypto in the environment that we’re in right now we even talked about that in the newsletter that was put out just a week ago over there on substack but still we haven’t seen a big break to either direction over here in the United States stock market when it comes to expansion or breadth opening back up but it also makes sense of course we haven’t seen Bitcoin Go off into that expansion as well so rather than rehash all the things of is this a retrace just a glorified one at that are we starting the whole 2019 through 2020 process in here where this thing just Waddles down up down down and then finally it capitulates all the way down to the low just like c19 or go through every bull case that’s possible out there I still think in the coming weeks really a lot of it’s just going to depend on this and seeing if this thing can break one way or another for us to get some expansion to happen in the market when it comes to the Russell 2000 and the Stock Market opening up and breath I will say though looking at this throughout the weekend this still is one of the most fascinating things that I think can provide at least some glimmer of hope for the Bulls has just been the behavior of Bitcoin over the course of the last three plus years while prices were down there in 2022 and 2023 we spent a lot of time really talking about this and it’s really how we were able to locate the bottom of Bitcoin back then in 22 and 23 is that the price structure as it had fallen had created what an entire crash had already looked like so as the world was screaming for 12K for all of 2023 until finally we broke out right here in October we had already kind of isolated that look everything’s already done what should be happening in a bottom right and what was really fascinating about this was the time at which these structures were all playing out and how Peaks were happening where capitulations were starting from then when breakouts and Recovery started happening from woff accumulation and then breakouts in the next ranges still following a timeline that has been absolutely remarkable right and so even in that particular timeline you had not actually reached into expansion happening yet if you kind of continued following that timeline you could see we wobbled up there at the highs until really an equivalent time for now would be until like late August or the first week of September differen is of course this price structure is different from this price structure up here but both of them were happening near the highs there was lots of waddling in here and we had not gone into expansion yet as we all know this Market has not expanded the allcoin market got back to its 702 retracement boom whips saw right off of it and we’ve seen the Confluence of that of course over here with Bitcoin but there’s essentially two camps of people right now I would think there’s one camp that is like fouryear Cycles everything happens right on Pace it’s baked into the market we just follow the timeline and keep on moving and then the other Camp who’s watching all the other stuff right watching Russell 2000 federal funds rates strength indicators happening within the market right and so for the the the federal funds rates FIB extensions Russell 2000 Behavior it’s like all the alarming stuff right however if you are like that fouryear person if you’re that just we repeat Cycles all the time you haven’t lost all your hope yet you really haven’t because even in this in which it all behaved like that and acted like this and we watched this even in October we even tweeting about this in October being like hey look if this thing is still going to continue because we’ve been following it so closely it will it seems like now is as good of time as any that something needs to actually show up like right here on October 11th 2023 each major milestone for Bitcoin in 2021 through 2023 has had shockingly accurate timing with 2014 through 2016 today marks one of those days of will it continue which is where we were at at that time and sure enough it did end up following that and it did end up going out with it so if you’re in that fouryear cycle belief if you’re in that repeating Behavior belief well in this circumstance expansion didn’t happen until an equivalent right here of late August very early September and as you can even see over here we’ll just shift this over just a little bit to make it more visible here right exceeding the high pulling back down it’s happened before right and so the point of this is not necessarily to provide you any hopium or to stream that we’re going to go into breakout and it’s going to get super exciting and everything is crazy again this is an incredibly complicated Market with where we are at right now as I outlined in heavy detail on that video it was 54 minutes and due to these underlying conditions that are happening here in the stock market we’re rivaling pretty Rough Waters ahead but from this perspective alone can you count Bitcoin out just yet right I can create a video where we can say there’s a million things that are happening that are not following what happens in typical bull markets and we can do those things right this is the first time that bitcoin’s ever gone underneath its 200 day moving average after hitting it’s alltime high it’s the first time the weekly relative strength index has gotten this low it’s the first time the monthly stochastic RSI has dropped this slow we could find a million reasons to point to to say things are not acting like what everybody is screaming over there on Twitter that up up up up and away and of course you can even see by the price action that we experienced over the holiday price action has done something a little bit different up in here from what everybody’s expectations were who were following what should happen compared to 2020 and compared to 2016 right we’ll save that for another time and I don’t think I have to rehash all of that I think you can get that clear picture of how different this Market has been just by looking at this video and the conditions that we’re in but simply speaking in this manner of it following for 2021 following for 2022 2023 and here we are into 2024 can you count it out entirely to say too much time has passed here for this to be able to recover from itself can we count it out with entire certainty to say that hey breath is going to open up in an epic way I don’t think we’ve reached that point yet where you can just entirely count it out but I also know this isn’t going to happen independently Bitcoin didn’t do this independently in 2016 and 2017 it didn’t do it independently in 2013 it didn’t do it independently in 2020 and 20121 and so still a lot of it’s going to ride on this and how this behavior is moving forward clearly there’s been no death and destruction that has happened to it just yet it’s just that obviously this hasn’t expanded but obviously In This Moment we’ve seen the old coin Market get pulled down incredibly hard nearly all those entries that i’ had put in a week ago all got stopped out and that flush that happened there on the 4th of July so we’ll have altcoin discussions this week on whether or not it’s time for me to just Place asymmetric bets zero or hero at this point but if we really are in something where hey it’s getting time to start really kind of looking for expansion to start coming over the next couple of months like in an example like this and if the Russell is going to break out of there you know when we got to this moment this is where clue from the altcoin market started to make themselves present that we were going to go into some expansion as well we started seeing it happen in the altcoin market right here so essentially if we’re talking about being in this kind of moment right in here right now which is what all of this is this is actually where a lot of stuff started to escape and we’ll talk about xrp this week but you could see it was really in that moment once that draw down right in there had happened the conclusion of that draw down was when things started to happen over here in the altcoin market back in 2016 and 2017 we could see that starting to take place in things here like Dash we could see Litecoin starting to take off there into that moment right there see look at this draw down on Litecoin where it’s at sad sad sad uh in here we finally start to actually see things take off from that particular moment in there in that draw down uh which we see happening right over here it was once that conclusion came in and so you know adding on several coins that were around back then during that time we can just kind kind of get a picture of it to see this was really kind of a moment where things started to kind of get themselves lifted off here and that’s really something we’d kind of be looking for right now and as we could see some of them waited till that literal bottom was really right there and then off it went and that happens of course way before Bitcoin does actually truly get into real expansion in there essentially here on Litecoin at 3 X’s itself before Bitcoin gets back to expansion xrp 10 x’s in that time before it goes into expansion so it happened very aggressively and rapidly so something like that just kind of showed up here suddenly where there was some expansions happening or some explosions happening in the altcoin market kind of signaling hey that’s it you know we’ve done some type of marking here you know we’ll address that right away but obviously we don’t have that here yet but it sure seems that if something like this would continue that’s the type of Market Dynamic Behavior we would be looking for to be coming in sometime soon right to kind of say hey this thing is intact hey this wasn’t just a retrace it’s not the end the world fed funds stock market Etc what would be an early signal of being like hey things were okay well in this environment it was kind of a sudden reaction throughout the rest of the cryptocurrency market started to emerge before that reaction actually ended up happening in Bitcoin and so that’s something I’ll be keeping an eye out for and if I saw conditions like that start to show up well then we start having more confluences cuz right now I get it everybody wants to hear Direction Up Down what are we going to what are we going to have right but what has it been it’s been the sideways range going on about 5 months anybody with incredibly strong conviction to the upside or anybody with strong conviction to the downside well guess what you got five months of sideways ranging happening in there the altcoin is rejected from the 702 but Bitcoin has just been in a sideways range for 5 months I’ve been to conferences during that time period I get pulled to the side I get asked by other content creators being like hey what do you think is going to happen how high do you think bitcoin’s going to go and I’m like a lot of those conditions are very different we’ve hit a 4.236 on bitcoin’s extension from 20 8 and we’re back at the retraces for the altcoin market it’s a very uncertain time right now it’s a very weird time right now especially with what’s going on in the stock market so everybody is searching out incredible directional biases usually to match what they want which is price go up but I’ve still tried to do my best to kind of remain that middle of the road that you know the water is so murky out there with all the different conditions that are ending up happening but one thing that would get me to like suddenly change my tune and become this hey bitcoin’s going higher thing is really if there were some reactions that happened like this here in the altcoin market that just kind of started from this point that would be our first like revealing of the cards of a bull market because I I wrote about that in the newsletter I’ve talked about this many times I see it over there on Twitter everybody wants to refer to this as a bull market that bitcoin’s in a bull market crypto is in a bull market it’s what YouTube titles are it’s what people say on Twitter in this bull market but we haven’t hit a bull market and we we know that simply because the altcoin market hit the 702 retracement so what does that make it it makes it a retracement so it’s real hard to call it a bull market when we haven’t had like the the signs and the signals happen in there that happened during a bull market this would be a sign of a bull market Bitcoin back to the all-time high struggles up there for several months and then finally there’s this pull back and then there’s like this kind of catapult that happens with a couple of altcoins throughout the market at this period that would be the first you know the the cards getting shown a little bit and that’s what we’re waiting for and we’re we’re in this moment right now where the cards aren’t shown everybody wants the directional bias but we don’t have the cards shown yet even if you want to be a Doomer and say it’s all going to crash and crumble yet we still don’t have the cards shown here yet right and by the time it happens it may be too late but the cards haven’t even been shown here but something like that happening on a few of these altcoins while bitcoin’s down in there I think would reveal those cards and so I think that’s just kind of where we’re at right now still that caution it’s still all that Russell 2000 stuff that fed funds rate that most concentrated stock market we’ve had since the great financial crisis but if we’re trying to say two steps ahead and say hey where would something reveal itself to say things are okay it would be some type of dynamic like this showing up right here cuz this is what happened once this moment finally got realized so if we’re looking for any type of signs that actually show up that there’s going to be Signs of Life coming in here this is the dynamic that you would be looking for to hang your hat on this type of idea right now that there should be some type of reaction starting to happen throughout the altcoin market whether even if it’s just you know a handful of them and we’re not talking about some random meme coin taking off we’re not talking about something rank number 250 we’re talking about stuff coming from the top 50 by market cap and crypto that some type of something starts to happen with them because that’s the type of dynamic you would be looking for If This Were to be true that we are approaching the time where something like that should be emerging if that were to be the case because that’s where the cards gets revealed that’s where the signs of bull come in here cuz we just don’t have the signs of bull in the market right now I mean we could sit there and look at it and say hey there was a bullish Divergence that happened right there on that day right there but we probably need more than that to say this Market’s going to go into an expansion so felt a little bit capitulo out there throughout the weekend we’ll take a closer look at the altcoin market this week we’ll take a close look at xrp this week but the main thing will be looking forward to say hey is this Market going to be okay my thoughts are we’d want to see at least some isolated reactions start to happen throughout the market in something larger and it doesn’t have to necessarily be all of them on the exact same day that’s typically not how it works we know that in the broader Trend it is all of them together but as for the initial reactions that say things are changing those can be separated by days or weeks so right now it’s going to be kind of looking for it to say can there be some type of early leader to show its car to say hey we’re doing something like that otherwise that doesn’t show itself right now so it’s still just caution but that’s the things I’m looking for if we were to continue moving along at that velocity and then of course if this thing just went firing to the upside or something was like nope I don’t care I’m not waiting we’re good but we’re still waiting on that too but that’s what we’ll be watching for in the coming weeks that if there becomes some type of reaction that can occur here in a few altcoins to give an early signal or if we do eventually end up seeing some type of retracement coming up in here for another third range boundary and if we just see allcoins doing the exact same thing where they’re just coming back in for a third range boundary and nobody’s given some early signal happening in here then we can kind of assess it when that time comes but if we want to be one of the early ones to say well wait a minute these types of things actually end up happening before expansions those are the types of things we’d be looking for or at least I would so we’ll see if things can stabiliz in here that was one of the biggest Liquidations in this market to happen back to back typically when we have liquidations of that level things start to kind of settle down for a little while so hard to say that there’s a rush to really try to be reading things I think the thing that would be looking for is to just see at least some early reactors happening in the market to give a sign that things are turning around and things are going to be okay like we just showed so crazy time I essentially worked every day for two weeks straight including the weekends and it was my first vacation to end up having and of course we get lots of Crazy Action I get I get lot lot of jokes out there oh Market’s going to go up cuz you’re on vacation I’m glad we can hopefully put that to rest but I guarantee those comments will come again either way it’s kind of a time to just kind of let things settle down after all of that let the Cards start to reveal themselves in the market if this thing’s going to turn itself around historically we’ll see a couple of leaders start to give that indication in there otherwise this week we’ll talk more about the altcoin market we’ll have an xrp video this week cuz we got a big move over there otherwise I’ll catch you guys in the next one and I want to thank you so much for watching watching if you’d like to check out my newsletter over here it’s at blockchain backer.com we do a lot of research over here in these newsletters talking about the Dynamics of the market we talk about the historical Behavior metrics that mattered on different altcoins this last one’s 28 minutes long it includes an audio voice over all of them do but otherwise that’s available over here at blockchain back. substack do.com if videos are more of your thing of course you could check out BCB backer.com with over 40 videos and 11 hours of content deep diving into the historic behavior of the cryptocurrency market and teaching you how to set up your own charts and indicators within trading View and coin Trader Pro there are links in the description to this video to BCB backer.com and to blockchain back. substack do.com but otherwise that’s going to be it for this one I want to thank you so much for watching if you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up if you are new to the Channel Please Subscribe and hit the notification Bell so you can be notified of when I create new content and when I go live as always always this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser but if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance just remember that the blockchain backers got your back have a good one [Music]

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