TIME IS NEAR as Bitcoin Price Chart, Altcoin Market & XRP Reach Historical Behavior, Elements Needed

TIME IS NEAR as Bitcoin Price Chart, Altcoin Market & XRP Reach Historical Behavior, Elements Needed

[Music] hey what’s going on everybody this is the blockchain backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and Analysis today we’re going to briefly talk about the Bitcoin price short but the primary focus is going to be over here on the altcoin market and where we’re at right now kind of piggybacking on the things we’ve talked about in the last two videos in regards to how much time we’ve spent in here for Bitcoin in the altcoin market including xrp and what we’ll find really throughout a lot of these things just based on time of where we’re at we’re all kind of residing here in this moment whether we’re looking at an asset like xrp if we’re looking at Bitcoin or if we’re looking at things like the altcoin market and the reality is that fact alone is what makes everything so challenging right now and I’ll kind of explain that more in detail but again it Resorts back to those conflicting things we talked about last week’s video on the challenges in the market so I’ll kind of reiterate that but also bring it from kind of a different perspective to talking about these and how in past Market Cycles even for the altcoin market we sit right here where expansion actually did begin both in 2020 21 and in 2016 and 2017 like from a Time perspective you’re there the challenge of course is what you know I know your Grandma knows we all know and we’re tired of hearing about it is that there hasn’t been any expansion that has happened in the United States stock market to turn into risk on it has really just been the Magnificent 7 show that has pulled up all the indexes but the rest of the market has not participated so we’re going to kind of elaborate on that a little bit more here and we’ll talk about things called Confluence which you guys should be familiar with but if you’re not it’s where you’re looking for multiple things to kind of line up in one way that give you a little bit more conviction in the bet that you’re placing an example of Confluence would be like back in 2022 and 2023 when the bottom was in for the market if you recall people didn’t stop screaming for 12K Bitcoin until Bitcoin escaped right here at the end of October and into the first week of November otherwise the infamous calls for 12K lasted for almost a year and a half now none of this is to take shots of people who were calling for 12K it’s typical at the bottom that that’s just emotionally what people do it’s the same thing at tops people come extremely euphoric at tops so why we talk about emotional logs tracking that understanding your own emotions and saying hey when my indicator of myself feels like this that’s usually bottoms if I want to crawl into the corner of my closet and cry that’s usually the bottom if I start shopping for Lambos when when I’m still 10x away from having that kind of money I’m maybe a little too excited and we may be at a local top but back to this what was Confluence that we saw going on for the crypto market and for Bitcoin down here at the lows well the first thing was of course we had identified that the market behavior that we had actually already been in a bare market right in here when I put out a video about two weeks ago discussing all of that we identified that our top came in when coinbase ipoed and that we had gone into the bear already from right here and done everything for capitulation and that we had already had our structure for a completed capitulation already to occur and that was really kind of Step One the market Peaks when coinbase IPOs right here most altcoins Peak and then we go into capitulation and we go the appropriate distance for capitulation to have already occurred but going off of past Cycles there were other things that had already happened as well I remember this happening in 2019 here we are happening again in 2022 but it had actually occurred back in 2015 as well you know people screaming of death crosses happening we had death crosses happen at each of the past prior bottoms and by the time those things had actually occurred we really were already at our bottom at that point only thing different here FTX takes it one little Notch lower however over here on the altcoin market we actually held that low in the true bottom of this market for the altcoin market is not FTX it’s right back there in the middle of June again coming off these death crosses having already happened with our low already being in death crosses happening with our low already being in never to be taken out again and still to this day many of the majors still hold June as being the bottom of the market right there like we have here for ethereum or here for xrp and binance coins right these are our Majors so seeing that we had already structurally played out what a final ending had looked like that we’re getting our death crosses and that we already building bullish divergences here on the weekly time frame as we have in the past and as we had back here in 2015 these were Confluence of events proper structure proper indicator behavior and then strength starting to build in here as we have in the past but even zooming out one leg further remember like we said really the 12K calls didn’t stop until like OCT October 30th November 1st November 2nd we were already exhibiting what had happened with the stochastic RSI on the monthly time frame way before that we already acting exactly what it had looked like when we were pulling out of a bear these were things we were going through in real time there in 2022 and 2023 to say hey look these things are already acting like what they do when you pull out we have Behavior here from the relative strength index of what tops look like back in here we see the fall off the cliff of the stochastic RSI from the peak of the market by the time we started seeing things ramp up in here that had indicated the bottom was already in so all of 2023 with people saying hey we’re going to 12K it didn’t make any sense because there was the Confluence happening in here I’m saying no it’s like we’re acting like we’re already coming off of the lows so whether it was these things on bigger time frames or even these behaviors on medium time frames of the weekly time frame there was a lot of things pointing to it to say hey look this Market’s probably exhausted it’s acting like it has every time in the past the majority of people are on the same side looking for lower and not to mention all of 2021 was talking about the completion of a super cycle what style correction would you be looking for after a completed super cycle and that we had already gotten that type of finishing move to show up in here in the market in addition to knowing what a bare Market structure already looks like and that we had gone on to do that exact same thing and then boom we had reached the full distance what the completion would look like so we had all these things happening here it seems like we’ve reached our low and so coming off of the lows this was the Confluence we were all experiencing in here as the market was starting to show strength underneath the hood when we had already done all of this here up until July and August and September all of this had already made itself present but people were still looking for $112,000 but all the Confluence was there of saying ah it doesn’t look like it doesn’t look like 12K is going to happen and we spent a lot of time on this talking about Confluence of the bottom but we’re going to bring that all back to today as we discuss what’s going on here in the market one of those really important things that I’m always looking for is I’m looking for hey can we find a bunch of things that make the Confluence lopsided to be like hey look like there’s way too many things pointing that we’re going this direction not that direction right and that’s the these are the Confluence events we saw at the low we spent a long time talking about it and it took like a year for it to finally ramp its way back up but the all held but we were also seeing Confluence of events occurring for the market right back in here one of the things we talked about about getting back to the retracement level is that you would see retail Behavior right you would see irrational exuberance retail Euphoria extreme risk-taking all those things showed up and the extreme risk-taking can easily be represented by meme coins right mem coins go Nets remember how people just wouldn’t buy Bitcoin at 177,000 18 $199,000 cuz they had to get down to 12,000 because emotionally they’ felt so much pain they emotionally couldn’t handle if it went down a little bit more but when you reach this emotional phase of a rational exuberance hey it’s already up 14,000 per. heck I’ll buy it it’s going to keep going up another 14,000 per. that risk of downside of 25 30% it just it gets brushed away because people don’t have that feeling anymore they’re not worried about it that’s an emotional thing that happens when you get back to retracement levels so we saw retail Behavior happening in here while we are at a technical level 702 Fibonacci retracement the other technical Confluence that showed up in here is really precisely nailing that 4.236 extension based on 2018 pair it finally goes up and and Nails it another thing we talked a lot about was addresses with greater than 10 Bitcoin and all the onchain stuff I won’t go into all the onchain things all over again because we’ve talked all about them but just even the super simple one to see you know these large wallets taking profit into these moments happening in here unlike what happens when you’re shifting back to the all-time high in the past notice once this thing starts getting carried away those wallets start taking profit and selling off we notice them starting to go ahead and start to do that and at the same time we weren’t seeing expansion happen in the market which we know has been a mandatory requirement for each of the past bull runs that expansion and bread opens throughout the market whether it was there in 2020 2021 or here in 2017 or here in 2013 for some reason this element was missing of expansion in that the broader stock market only did a retrace to a 618 rather than expanding like we did in 2012 2016 and 2020 and then the scary thing happened where gold broke out back here on March 1st which is not the typical behavior that you actually have from Gold when expansions are happening risk taking is happening and Bitcoin goes breaking off into a new high but this has often been a precursor of troubling times happening for the stock market and we express that these were some concerning things at the time but they were Confluence right multiple things lining up at the same time retail Euphoria irrational exuberance mocking of anybody being a Beyer or selling Bitcoin at a 4.236 extension the altcoin market at a 702 Fibonacci to retracement with large entities selling and no expansion and even when you look at it structurally on a smaller time frame to see how do you go back and hit the retrace you can clearly see a five wve euphoric parabolic ending to get back to that retrace just as Bitcoin did to get back to its retrace in 2019 and the structural behavior and size of Bitcoin ends up being nearly identical to that along with the five W ending of euphoria irrational exuberance which is a retrace structure even making pit stops at the same locations on its way up so what did we see we saw a bunch of confluences at the bottom that were flashing all the same signals that we’ve seen before when a bottom comes in and then when we get up here we see a lot of signals flashing that something’s not right mixed with the fact that retail investors finally became fully confident at that moment but if you recall at the beginning of the video I said that being being here is what makes this so difficult or like being right here for xrp is what makes it so difficult because of when we’re looking for Confluence when we just look at the time of how much Bitcoin has spent in here and the structure of what Bitcoin has done to get itself here it has totally resembled what happens of a complete reset and then breaking out of these things on the exact same time frame we talked about that in yesterday’s video we’ve talked about that many times in the past and yet here we are even following that time frame along we still haven’t hit the point in which expansion actually did start we’re sure getting awfully close to it but even in here the altcoins hadn’t really done anything magnificent yet back in 2016 and 2017 and it was once that bottom kind of came in that we suddenly saw things like this start to happen throughout the market but it took getting there for that to happen so you have these things lining up here for things like Bitcoin from time perspective cycle Behavior right you have these things lining up here for the altcoin market of like cycle Behavior where if we’re using Peaks here from like 2013 here in the blue which is what all of this is 20133 14 15 16 17 you know you don’t really break out and start expanding for the altcoin market until right here which for us in our current time frame that’s like being like August 3rd or 4th so we weren’t even there yet if we look at it from from the perspective of like 2018 19 20 and 21 going on in there just looking at these bottoms right and then you know we’ve got this morph structure here but having our Peaks come down in here then we go on into our capitulation and like we’ve shown over there on the altcoin market the bottom happening down here in June where are you at right you’re like right here at time where expansion really starts to kick in otherwise this is just a retracement still happening over here in the altcoin market still trying to get its shift on its way out and get into true expansion So based on the bottom you haven’t gotten there yet right so it’s not like we’ve passed the time yet from 2020 and 2021 and it’s not like we’ve passed the time from 2014 through 2017 and while we’ve seen little Corrections like this happen in the altcoin market where you know falls off and sets a new low falls off and sets a new low and then it recovers and it goes off in there right so from a Time perspective right you’re still not quite there of where expansion did happen for both 2013 but you’re really kind of getting there for 2020 and we’re just kind of entering into that window of time right so you look at it from this perspective of being like all right Cycles repetition when do things end up happening we’re like entering into that window right now for the altcoin market in general for Bitcoin and like we’re talking over here on xrp topping on there on April 14th 2021 that you’re entering into that window where the market gets really spooked there on that last one that concludes it and then you go off into expansion throughout the market right so like looking at it from this perspective you’ve got these confluences of being like timing is lining up from past Cycles you’re there we’ve gone through the trenches of trash for years on end just as we have in past Cycles whether that’s 2014 through 2016 or that’s 2018 through 2020 you’ve gone through everything and you’ve now reached that time window of when expansion actually did take place and what usually happens whenever you enter into that you’re going to finally enter into it with a little bit of fear as people are scared of it and wrong-footed by it if it were to show up which we’re at the greatest fear of this market right now than we’ve been in in over a year then you look at Bitcoin like this and you say man can you do a structure like that man can you go take out that low and do that and things still be okay throughout the market I remember one time recently I got real startled by one for those who have been longtime followers of the channel you know I’m a big precious metals guy probably at the same level or more than crypto but when gold did that that was actually really startling for what happened with gold it as well had gotten into a new all-time high fell back couldn’t set another high and then it goes on and sets a new low and then it just recovers right and so getting into the new high not able to set a new high and then setting the new low have we seen that before and just other Assets in general cuz obviously that’s not what Bitcoin did right here back in 2016 and 17 but can you do that back at the high and then try to get through yeah I mean it does happen right like you saw with gold then it just it starts going right and well we know if we get through here you’re getting through a 4.236 extension you’re getting new expansion you’re going to take the altcoin market with you at least that’s what happened all throughout here this was the greatest all season in the history of crypto was this one right here even 2013’s alt season didn’t have anything on what happened right here in 2017 this was kind of that same stuff that we saw there in 2021 right even here in xrp it goes up 979 right I mean that’s kind of in line here of the things that we saw here for xrp back in 2021 it was really that 2017 expansion that was the big one for the whole market we’ve gone into huge details on that you know on this leg right in here the average returns of the top 10 were 70x versus you know the stuff at 12x but right moral of the story is can you do that can you recover I have a vivid memory of when gold did that actually just recently about two years ago and so you know I started this by saying this element of all this happening right here is what makes it so difficult right you would say to yourself ah there’s Confluence man it’s like time it’s time for everything to get soaring off into the sunset right but really like once we get to here this is really where kind of the Confluence ends because then when you start looking at like the different elements you get the opposite thing you still have gold broken out right you still have the fact that this is acted exactly what happens with an ending that slams into a retracement that’s like the first wave down you know recovery can come in and then turn itself over you don’t have like what happened at the bottom back here in 2022 and 2023 where these wallets with 10 Bitcoins are like scooping it all up buying it all up right they’re not doing that here and then we just can’t get an expansion to show itself to be like yes we’re going up or even to say no we’re going yet when it comes to the bre over there in the US market so it’s not like those circumstances of where we have like all these things like super lining up all at the same time we don’t have all that Confluence that’s happening in the market you’ve just got mixed pictures everywhere as we approach the time of which things could happen or the magical unicorn faired does to make itself present and I know we have talked about it a lot and we just kind of keep harping on that over and over again but it’s because it really just seems like the most important thing is that if the breath opens up over here that’s almost good enough that’s almost like all you really have to have for there to be like the Confluence of everything because that does it all because if we actually started seeing the Confluence open up right here if we started seeing the Bread open up here in the US markets and at the same time we started seeing those things start to show up in there where gold starts to kind of fall back while risk on turns on right gold is risk off right Brett’s not opening up only being magn Magnificent Seven right that’s risk off that’s consolidation but if we saw breath open up and people wanting to take bigger risks on growth and at the same time people not feeling they have to run to gold and silver for safety because they’re unsure and they’re uncertain well gold falling is what we’ve always had in rty or the Russell 2000 Rising is what we’ve always had and you know it could happen in a blink of an eye you go back and you look at what happened back in 2017 the Russell just said hey guess what in literally one week’s time risk on that’s really all we need because if that happened where suddenly it just became risk on hey we’re done we’re pulling back here in Gold we’re not trying to be safe guess what then the Confluence is all completely there we’ve approached time we’ve approached structure can you do this and recover you can you can do that but the super big element missing is the risk aspect and most of the time if not every time this comes right before and that’s where all the Confluence arrives for these things and so I’m sure you’re tired of hearing it’s a complicated picture it’s like navigating uncharted waters because we’ve never been through this before it’s because it’s true we just hav it those elements always become present and like we’ve shown even when we’re like trying to find bottoms like we did in 22 and 23 right how they flashed all the exact same things that have happened when bottoms occurred back in 2018 and 19 19 and then back in 2014 and 15 we got all the same things to just flash right and so we’re looking for that Confluence and for those flashes to happen from time we’re here but there’s certain things that are still missing and they’re not present and that’s what makes it really difficult right now because you look at this and you say it is time it is time to rumble but all the Confluence elements aren’t there yet and it’s hard to know if they will show up but if there’s anything baked into the cake it sure looks like we’re right there at that time for something like that to be present and really for like the next month or two that’s going to be our primary focus is to see can those confluences start to make themselves present throughout the market to give that and it sure would be nice if it would just kind of like slowly show us that it’s coming and forming and we can kind of be like okay cool it’s coming it’s coming but most of the time it just kind of suddenly shows up and gets out and it just kind of shows up in a blink of an eye not giving you really any time to sit there and say I think it might be happening uh it just kind of happens and right now we don’t know if it will but if it does I would suspect this is the moment we’ve all been waiting for this is the moment you put all the years of hard work into but right now outside of this outside of being like it’s time it’s time or at least in the next month or two it’s time we still need a lot of the Confluence to show up and so as we go through the coming weeks that’s going to be the things that we look for and try to point out are they starting to make themselves present because I can tell you this is a lot of hopium right here looking at this thing looking at this thing it’s a lot of hopium and it’s not int to just be blatant hopium it’s going to go up for the sake of it’s going up we tried to point the picture and say well look these were all the other things that were happening at that time I could just come on here make this video and say see it’s time it’s time to go but we know there’s other things that actually do matter and that is bread opening up gold falling back risk on all that kind of stuff right I see this stuff it makes me excited but only to the extent of where all historical precedents set for these types of events also requires these other things to occur and right now we don’t have the Confluence of those and that’s what we’re really focusing on is the moral of the story but I do sincerely believe the next two months are going to paint a long-term picture of not only crypto but of the US Stock Market as well and I think we have entered into this period of two months right here where the next several years of our lives are going to be determined and I don’t think there has ever been a more intense time in my experience of being in markets than where we actually are right now that the deciding point of our future is all actually within this 2mon window and not just crypto but broader markets as well and it makes it such an intense time on whether or not we’re going to follow something where the breadth turns to Absolute trash in A Moment Like This like in 2007 which is what this is and how we’re behaving here in 2024 is rivaling that will this be our warning sign or will this be the biggest breadth opening in the history of the universe to distribute that throughout everything else we seem to be living in that moment where that decision is going to happen here whether we look at it from the perspective of crypto of being a month or a month and a half or the perspective of the stock market the next month month and a half that answer seems to be like now and that’s what makes this current time so insanely intense so like men right if we get the Confluence of where something like the Russell starts to move its way up or like I talked about in the Bitcoin video some of those early signs have actually been altcoins leading the way for Bitcoin is giving that heads up of things to come still I think it would be with the rty actually Leading The Way of the Russell 2000 but either way if events like this started to happen periodically throughout the market that would be that sign but moral of the story is there’s some things that look very similar there’s some things that just don’t when we found the bottom of the market back in 22 and 23 we had all the Confluence that it just showed you when we got back to the retracement there was a Confluence of multitudes right gold breaking out Russell 2000 not wall it’s greater than 10 Distributing with a rational exuberance right there’s were all things happening at the same time and we now entered this moment right here of time of where this is where the fireworks went off this is where everything went off and looking for is there the Confluence saying that that’s what’s going to happen that the fireworks are going to go off because everything has lined up for that to occur and the thing that is just missing is all the confluences that you would hope to see at the same time and so for the next month or two it is totally about saying where are the confluences can we get some similarities to start start showing themselves up so we’ll track it every day and see how it goes so all right that’s it for this one guys I’ll catch you in markets in the morning tomorrow otherwise in the meantime if you’re looking for something to do of course you can check out the newsletter over here on blockchain back. substack do.com we dive into a lot of the indicators of bread in this most recent one really showing you how when that opening up happens it really does translate into crypto especially back there in October November and December that we saw it actually happening a lot there in the stock market identically with crypto and how truly important that actually is there’s a 28 minute audio recording that I personally voice recorded myself for this I voice record all the newsletters there’s almost 40 of them I think in there you can go back and check all the research that’s been done on altcoins when it comes to developer activity user activity levels and inflation metrics but this is available over here on blockchain backer.com if you like videos of course you could check out BCB backer.com where there’s over 40 videos and 11 hours of content teaching you how to set up your own charts and indicators within trading View and coin Trader Pro there are links in the description of this video to BCB backer.com and to the newsletter over there at blockchain backer.com otherwise I’ll catch you guys tomorrow and I want to thank you so much for watch watching if you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up if you are new to the Channel Please Subscribe and hit the notification Bell so you can be notified of when I create new content and when I go live as always this is not investment advice and I am 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