Natively quantum resistant cryptos have a massive long-term upside potential

A few people I know who work in finance are starting to do long-term investing in natively quantum resistant blockchains.

It feels a bit like the 2010s when the savviest/bravest invested in the next big thing (Bitcoin at the time).

I don't understand why people continue to invest in Bitcoin or Ethereum for 2x or 5x returns at most, when natively quantum resistant blockchains have potential upsides ranging from 50x to 100,000x within 10 years. Here's how I see it – 4 possible scenarios for e.g. QRL:

• Baseline scenario: QRL ends up having about 10% of Bitcoin's valuation → that would be a 5,000x return compared to its current price (as in, if you invest $200 you end up with a million $)
• Conservative scenario: QRL ends up having the same value as a meme coin like TRUMP → that would be 50x. In my view quantum resistance is much more than a meme in the long run (see below), so I consider this scenario conservative
• Optimistic scenario: QRL, the first natively quantum resistant blockchain, becomes synonymous with safe crypto assets and goes number 1, plus overall crypto valuations double → that would be a 100,000x return
• Last scenario: in this scenario I was completely wrong and QRL doesn't budge. But given the upsides in the other 3 scenarios, I'm still willing to invest!

Bitcoin will collapse when people realize transactions aren't secure (to receive coins you need to give your public key, and in the quantum era anyone with your public key can drain your wallet – so Bitcoin becomes instantly useless). There will be attempts to make quantum resistant versions of Bitcoin but they'll pose major governance issues (forced forks effectively transforming Bitcoin into a multitude of altcoins), and will still be subject to hacking of abandoned wallets (hackers will get those alt-bitcoins and sell them, driving prices down).

A lot of Bitcoin's value is driven by ETFs, and institutional finance won't want anything to do with that mess when quantum risks become real – they'll demand secure (quantum-safe) assets. That's the end of Bitcoin's institutional adoption story and any further upside.

Ethereum's (and the likes) situation is even worse – hard choices between speed reduction, cost increases, and quality of service reduction will have to be made. Some services that are available today would no longer be possible and/or cost more and/or be slower if you tried to make it quantum resistant. It's telling that Vitalik is already discussing emergency protocols for when (not if) Ethereum gets quantum-hacked (https://ethresear.ch/t/how-to-hard-fork-to-save-most-users-funds-in-a-quantum-emergency/18901) – focusing on damage control rather than prevention because the fundamental architecture isn't fixable.

When quantum computing starts to become real, blockchains that weren't natively quantum resistant will face:

• Cost increases and/or reduction in quality of existing services
• Major governance issues (linked to above point)
• Hacks of legacy wallets and subsequent selling pressure (hackers will sell everything they can hack)
• Massive selling pressure from tech-savvy investors and institutions – why stick with vulnerable, low-upside legacy coins when there are safe alternatives with massive potential?

Long before quantum computing starts to become real, the opportunity to 100x or 100,000x will already belong to natively quantum resistant blockchains. That's why people invest in crypto in the first place. Opportunity → massive inflow of capital → prices go up → more coverage → massive inflows → repeat.

People in finance understand that current asset prices reflect discounted future value. So what's the 10-year outlook for Bitcoin/Ethereum? Not great – probably a lot less than today's prices suggest.

Even for those who don't understand why natively quantum resistant blockchains have a significant edge – they'll at least understand that native quantum resistance will become a narrative/meme at some point, reinforced by every quantum computing research breakthrough headline, and within a few years by every headline about people getting their crypto hacked on old-school blockchains (like Bitcoin or Ethereum).