People who didn’t take profits in Q4 are now pushing the “cycle is broken” narrative.
But the pattern is still visible:
2017 → Major top formed in Q4
2021 → Major top formed in Q4
2025 → Again showing similar late-cycle behavior
Across past cycles, each post-halving rally has typically:
Peaked in the late-year “green zone”
Followed by a harsh accumulation phase
Then a recovery phase most people didn’t expect
We may be seeing a similar structure again, just at different price levels and narratives.
BTC is currently around $74K.
From a cycle perspective, this still looks closer to a late expansion / early distribution phase, rather than a full macro reset.
Historically, deeper bottoms have tended to form well after the euphoric phase fades — often in the later part of the cycle window.
If the pattern continues, late 2026 (Q3/Q4) could align with a broader bottoming range — but that’s just a cyclical observation, not a certainty.
Not financial advice.
https://i.redd.it/ihragd5fv5vg1.jpeg
Posted by Ourcrypto_news
11 Comments
I’m using AI to plan everything so let us roll
Why is the last green stripe wider than the others ? Is it to fit your narrative ?
BS
one would hope
A graph can prove anything
The chart is literally a mirror of 2017 and 2021. Just gotta be patient.
Self fulfilling prophecy
You had a new ATH before the halving. Cycle already broke.
Past history data works until it doesn’t.
The last green bar edge needs to be shifted back.
We are averaging a 3 year and 11 month cycle and people are lazy to call it 4 years.
Based on a sample size of three and a history of about a decade, I’m going to completely alter my investment strategy. Thanks for sharing!