The market opened this morning with US stocks in the green, while oil prices pulled back on the new expectations that US-Iran discussions may continue later this week. Even with the potential for progress, supply concerns are easing, even though they had previously pushed prices higher.
I think it all really depends on the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in global oil flows. Any disruption or change in stability has obviously had effects on the Middle East and the broader global economy.
The most favorable outcome for lower oil prices would be a clear de-escalation: continued diplomacy and an open Strait, ensuring steady supply. On the other hand, failed talks or rising tensions would likely drive prices back up quickly.
What do you guys think would be the best outcome in talks between the US and Iran at this point?
Oil prices pulling back?? Optimism??
byu/Massive_Bit_6290 instocks
Posted by Massive_Bit_6290
15 Comments
It’s all manipulation. It’ll climb.
Going to 70
There is backwardation currently in the oil market. April 21 is key date coming up.
Backwardation is a market condition where the spot price (current price) of oil is higher than futures prices for later dates, typically signaling high immediate demand or supply shortages. It occurs when the market is underserved, making immediate physical delivery more valuable than future delivery, often forcing traders to cover positions quickly.
Depends what the regard says
A peace deal is not happening.
Just bought 4k of oilu I’m betting it goes up
no . only good stocks . amzn alphabet asml.
Spy 700 liberals
Delusional
There’s reports that negotiations might continue between Iran and the US (from the Pakistan side), and there are peace talks scheduled today between Israel and Lebanon.
The -11% in 24 hours is the market making a call, not just reacting. A genuine closure of a strait carrying 20% of global oil supply doesn’t produce a sell-off in the commodity, it produces the opposite. The speed of that move says the market is pricing a negotiating position, not a structural disruption.
The indicator I’d watch rather than the diplomatic headlines is tanker insurance rates. If underwriters start pulling cover or Lloyd’s of London suspends policies for Hormuz transits, that’s the honest signal that the blockade is real. Until then, $94 oil is the market telling you it doesn’t believe the threat is being enforced.
On the scenarios I agree that de-escalation is the cleanest outcome. But there’s a third path worth considering, a blockade that’s announced but never fully enforced, kept as permanent leverage. That’s arguably worse for markets long-term than either resolution because it keeps the uncertainty premium alive without ever clearing
Hopefully Iran doesn’t get sucker punched again during this negotiation like the Feb one.
The problem that I have is this:
Lets say this is over tomorrow: a lot has already run tremendously in advance of that. Stuff like SNDK being up 65% between the end of March and yesterday. BE is up 80% since the end of March. That’s not to say that things can’t go higher over time, but there’s been a lot of huge moves in a very short period. The nasdaq is on track to be up 10 straight days.
Lets say it isn’t (it seems like it’s heading towards some degree of being over, but lets say it isn’t): there’s a good deal of downside.
Things will not return to normal overnight even if it was over tomorrow. So, very short term feels like market is ahead of itself to some degree in best or worst case. In the best case scenario, the bottom was likely the end of March (which…is not far from the bottom last year.)
oil pull back, snp rallying
seems like the market participants are of the opinion that the worst is over
What do you guys think would be the best outcome in talks between the US and Iran at this point? – depends on the person’s portfolio position
what is likely to happen – nobody really knows?
seems like its possible for conflict to end in the next week / missile / drones to start flying again
Oil is going higher regardless of a peace deal or not. On top of the choke point issue is the fact that we are increasing exports abroad. So selling domestically produced oil while coming into summer demand meaning we are reducing our own supply with seasonal rising demand.