Today I watched a podcast where the guest was Cathie Wood from ARK. In the middle of the interview, she said that Tesla is going to be a $10 trillion company. I’ve seen and heard this claim from Elon Musk and his fans before, but from a “professional” investor? That honestly shocked me.
I came to the conclusion that Tesla is the perfect example of how the market can be irrational.
I decided to look at the basic numbers of the car manufacturing industry.
Top 3 car manufacturers by EBITDA:
Toyota (2025): $46.0B
Volkswagen (2025): $52.0B
Hyundai-Kia (2025): $19.0B
Combined EBITDA: $117.0B
Combined market cap: ~$515B
Tesla (2025):
EBITDA: $10.0B
Market cap: $1.1 trillion (up 20% in 2026)
For comparison;
Berkshire Hathaway (2025):
EBITDA: $150.0B
Market cap = $ 1 T
PS: Tesla is a car manufacturing company. Only when they make more than 10% its revenue from robots will I consider calling it something else.
Make it make sense.
Tesla is the perfect example pf how the market can be irrational
byu/Same-Copy-9513 instocks
Posted by Same-Copy-9513
16 Comments
Itchy_Steak
Why does cathie wood surprise you? She has a huge stake in Tesla and became initially famous because she did successfully time Tesla in early 2019 2020. That‘s pretty much all there is to her.
Her ARK innovation etf has performed horribly after she has made one bad decision after another. Her predictions have been consistently incorrect. all her interviews are her trying to pump Tesla. You‘re better off following reddit advice than hers.
tesla is a robot autonomy ai satellite internet launching tweeting media tunnel boring company.
they occasionally make automobiles on the side.
the market has priced them accordingly.
Go to bed Walter.
can you also compare amazon to book companies if we’re going to use your logic? or shall we wait until tesla fully executes on batteries, robotics, AI plus more before investors give it an absurd valuation?
sure, the market cap is extremely high compared to their earnings, but that’s partially due to the fact investors have high confidence in them executing
Tesla is a cult, buy dips and heavy negative sentiment sell excitement.
Musk sells narrative
It’s not straightforward to prove the “irrationality” of predictions about the future.
I think they’re pretty wild-eyed too, but the future cannot be predicted with certainty.
Price will talks itself.
Another one that’s crying
I’m not a Tesla bull. But I’ve seen posts like this so many times.
People have faith that Elon can execute and people are willing to follow him and give him that premium.
People have to remember Tesla and SpaceX were not supposed to succeed but yet he defied the odds and made them both successful companies.
Also people said the same about Amazon back then. It’s just a book store but then Amazon morphed into more than a book store.
Tesla is in the same boat and you either believe they can do it or don’t. It’s pretty simple honestly.
The most important point you are missing is equities trade on forward earnings
Hey Dad, you found Yahoo Finance I see.
Bro wow, just wow, you are the first person to look at the car industry valuations compared to Tesla, get Warren Buffet on the phone we have found his successor…
The market is valuing Tesla as a tech company, not a car manufacturing company. Current sales numbers are irrelevant. It’s all about betting on Musk and his future plans for Tesla.
Where have you been the last 6 years lmao
market is pricing 30% chance it tanks to $100 30% chance one of the robo things take off in 5 years, 30% chance Tesla gets bought out at a premium by SpaceX after its IPO
oh and the media/PR is manipulated by a billionaire who can’t be held accountable for lying