SRPT is going to $15 before it goes to $30

ive been following sarepta for like 2 years now and i think the next few months are gonna be rough before things get better. stock is sitting around $22 right now after already getting absolutely demolished from $65 last year. down like 66% in 12 months. yes i know. but hear me out because i think theres still more pain coming SHORT term before the real recovery.

why it goes lower first (the bear case for next few months)

the elephant in the room is obviously Elevidys. two patients died from acute liver failure, EMA slapped a clinical hold on european studies, and the FDA forced a boxed warning. this tanked the stock hard multiple times last year and the drama isnt fully over. Q4 Elevidys revenue came in at only $110M which is genuinely terrible when you remeber this drug was supposed to be a multi-billion dollar blockbuster. management basically had to lower expectations and now theyre just reaffirming a $500M "floor" for annual sales like thats something to brag about lol.

balance sheet stuff that worries me short term:

cash dropped from $1.1B at end of 2024 to around $954M by year end 2025. thats meaningful cash bur

operating cash burn running around $205M annually they have $829M in long term debt sitting there/ GAAP net loss for FY2025 was $713M. seven hundred million dollar loss on $2.2B revenue. the margins look ok on paper (gross margin ~99%) but the operating expenses are eating them alive/Q4 EPS came in at -$3.93 vs estimate of -$1.20. thats a -228% earnings "surprise". brutal

oh and theres class action lawsuits now from multiple law firms claiming the company misrepresented Elevidys safety risks. legal overhang on top of everything else. Citi has a SELL with $8 target and calls 2026 a "reset year". even the bulls like Wedbush only have a $32 target.

the May 6 earnings report is the next real catalyst and with the stock bouncing recently off the $10.42 52-week low, i think a lot of weak hands bought this "recovery" and another dissapointing quarter could flush it back toward $15. the Cohort 8 ENDEAVOR trial (testing sirolimus with Elevidys to prevent liver injury) hasnt produced data yet. until that data comes out the safety overhang doesnt go away.

why it eventually goes to $30 (the bull case)

here's were it actually gets interesting. the PMO franchise (Exondys 51, Vyondys, Amondys) is genuinely stable, nearly $1B in revenue for 2025, and doctors know these drugs. that business alone is worth something. it doesnt go to zero.

the reason i think $30 is realistic within 12-18 months:

1. Elevidys sirolimus combo data – if cohort 8 shows the immunosuppression protocol actually prevents liver injury, the whole safety narrative flips. this is the single biggest catalyst. wedbush literally initiated with outperform because they think the selloff was overdone and non-ambulatory re-approval is possible
2. the siRNA pipeline is real – they filed a first-in-human trial for SRP-1005 for Huntingtons disease in NZ. this is the beginning of sarepta becoming more than just a DMD company. the market isnt pricing ANY of this in right now
3. HHS added DMD to the newborn screening panel – this is huge long term because earlier diagnosis = more patients who qualify for Elevidys while still ambulatory. this literally expands the addressable market going forward
4. valuation math – market cap is only $2.3B right now on a company doing $2.2B in revenue. even with the losses, if Elevidys stabilizes above $500M/year and PMO stays near $1B, the revenue multiple here is like 1x. thats historically cheap for a rare disease biotech even with all the problems
5. Wedbush $32 target, Wells Fargo still at Buy, Morningstar fair value estimate at $69 (yes i know thats crazy but still). the average analyst price target is around $20-21 which means at $15 youre buying it at a discount to even the conservative analysts

not financial advice obviously, i could be completely wrong and have been before. do your own research.