Bitcoin: 75K Short Squeeze, Here Is What Comes Next

    Bitcoin just ripped from 70K to 75K on Trump’s Iran comments and over 430 million dollars in short positions got liquidated in 24 hours. Every permabull on YouTube is back calling for a new bull market. I don’t agree. In this video I walk through exactly why this rally does not change my thesis, what the macro environment actually looks like underneath the news, and what would need to happen for Bitcoin to actually become bullish from a structural standpoint.
    This is an Elliott Wave Analysis.

    00:00 Bitcoin Rips To 75K On Trump Iran Comments
    00:45 The News Context: Short Squeeze And Peace Talks
    02:00 ETF Inflows Surging And The Debasement Hedge Thesis
    03:24 The Catalyst Changed But The Structure Did Not
    03:45 Daily Chart: Still In The Corrective Bounce
    04:30 The 2022 Fractal And Why It Matters
    05:30 The Q2 Forecast And The B Wave Extending
    06:44 On Chain Indicators: NUPL And LTH Realized Price
    07:30 NUPL Explained With Simple Analogy
    09:00 LTH Realized Price At 44K
    09:49 Why These Indicators Did Not Call The Top (Honest Answer)
    11:30 Elliott Wave Is The Leading Indicator
    12:37 Microstructure And The Five Wave Move From March
    13:30 Key Resistance Zone: 76K To 80K
    14:30 Key Support At 72.7K And What To Watch
    15:21 Counter Trend Rallies Are Choppy
    16:00 Closing And What Comes Next
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    33 Comments

    1. The trader who got liquidated for $12 million on bitcoin needs to follow and subscribe to your channel πŸ˜‚ we all knew this. Thanks Ben!

    2. Ben you’re correct that we haven’t bottomed but then a lot of indicators indicating bitcoin top also didn’t get triggerred last year , how can we trust all this now ?

    3. I just asked Gemini where is 21 weekly EMA and it says its at 70000.I am bit confused.I am just learning about Elliot wave theory and i really like your content.Keep up the good work

    4. I don't have a problem with this bear market. Previous bullmarket was disaster. Btc went from 2021th highs only up 80% in 4 years and altcoins never recover.

    5. I was looking at the monthly RSI and it’s showing bearish divergence. Additionally, we are ranging in a similar zone to the previous bull market for the first timeβ€”that’s never happened before.
      The fact that NUPL hasn't reached the 'Greed' zone yet might suggest that BTC is nearing a top. The monthly RSI doesn't seem to allow for prices much higher than $140k, which would align with the theory of BTC having diminishing returns.

    6. I also don’t buy the bull thesis and think we hit max 90k-ish before retesting lows. However, this is the first cycle that we’ve had such a strong institutional bid. I expect the trough to be as high as the highs were low.

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