US blockade on Iran fully implemented — Iran now threatening Red Sea closure, ceasefire expires in 6 days

CENTCOM confirmed today that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports is fully implemented, completely cutting off Tehran's international sea trade. 9 ships have been boarded in 3 days. More than 10,000 US troops and over a dozen warships are enforcing the blockade.

Key developments in the last 48 hours:

• Iran's military warned that if the blockade continues, the IRGC will shut down the Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea. Not just Hormuz anymore. Hormuz carries 20% of global oil. Bab al Mandeb carries 12%. Both closed simultaneously would cut a quarter of global energy supply.

• Trump posted on Truth Social that he is permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz and that China agreed to stop sending weapons to Iran. CENTCOM simultaneously says the blockade is fully in effect. The messaging gap is significant.

• The IMF cut global growth to 3.1% and warned that if oil stays at 100 a barrel, growth drops to 2.5%. Worst case is 2%, which has only happened 4 times since 1980.

• Pakistan's army chief flew to Tehran to try restarting talks after the Islamabad round collapsed.

• The ceasefire expires April 21. 6 days. No next round of talks is scheduled.

• Gas prices have gone from 2.98 to 4.15 nationally since the war started. March CPI showed the largest monthly gasoline increase since 1967.

• Oil is at 91 to 95. Markets are pricing in a deal but the fundamentals suggest otherwise.