Wondering if the exuberance being displayed the past 2 weeks is irrelevant or irrational? Meaning you may have gotten the heart pumping a little bit but the rest of the organs are too far damaged to recover. Patient looks normal on the surface.
Anyone have an idea how much capacity has been cut off and the downstream impacts on other key industries? How many weeks of normal capacity will it take to bring back reserve stocks?
Trillion Dollar Question. Does the continuing lack of supply cause a recession.
byu/h2power237 inoil
Posted by h2power237
10 Comments
There is a reason why they blacked out the satellites
The metaphor actually fits quite well. Short term price increases can quickly create euphoria, but what really matters is whether the underlying supply can keep up. If capacity remains offline or investment is lacking, it ripples through the entire value chain from energy to industry, transport, and even food prices.
Historically, these kinds of supply constraints tend to have a delayed effect. First, prices rise, and only later does the pressure hit growth and demand. That second phase is usually the critical point when recession risks start to increase.
So the real question isn’t just how many weeks it takes to rebuild reserves, but whether it can happen fast enough at all especially with geopolitical risks and structural underinvestment still in play.
Trigger a recession is probably more accurate. There has been one brewing for years any just waiting for an excuse to go off. Oil shortage will just make it worse. But yeah, physical shortage of oil means physical reduction of all sorts of traffic and therefore recession, I don’t think there is any way around it really.
When will the impacts be felt in the good old USA?
Central bank reactions to anticipated inflation is a huge point to consider. Higher energy prices = higher consumer prices = higher inflation = higher interest rates. Higher interest rates and higher consumer prices = less consumer spending and less economic growth = possible recession. Correct me if I’m wrong but I think most central banks already now anticipated to hike rates through the next year.
Global depression. When the war resumes and oil and desalination infrastructure is critically destroyed
Economists say 45 days till the last barrel shows up then somewhere over 60 days is when the us will start seeing shortages then over 100 is when you see a contraction, so we are about 48 or so days in
What recession… SPY to 9000 EOY. Oil is down and will continue to go down as trump secures the ultimate dream deal with Iran.
Fairly simple. It’s not 2D 3D or 4D or whatever Chess they say they are playing. He’s going to lose midterms. He didn’t care anyway because he’s a lame duck anyway. Economy will start to deteriorate slowly after that. Republicans will not get elected in the next election as the economy crashes. His cronies and the others will scoop up everything cheap and make another 100+ billion during the recovery. Same playbook as 2008.
Curious as to why we have a drop in oil price with the blockade. I thought this would raise the price, or is this because of tankers being redirected to the US for refilling? I thought that was a different crude type. Confused on this one.