Markets have been ripping (even in the pre market today), backed by what???
No one knows.
US – IRAN haven't agreed on a permanent ceasefire, if anything, there is a greater chance that things might fall apart this weekend (I hope not). Don't understand what's really happening right now. Partly invested, and have some dry powder left but there is no clarity on the macro environment.
Any views/comments/opinions are appreciated.
Posted by Gold_Revolution3658
34 Comments
This ain’t peak…
Dca
yaaaawwn
Peak is when S&P hits a P/E of 30+ (dot com crash peak levels).
Right now we sitting at 22 p/e.
Wait for the market to go up another 5-10%… This is April 2025 all over again
People are betting that we’re going back to business as usual and numbers will continue to look good
Seasonality
War. War never matters.
Lol – new to markets? Everyone knows everything you just mentioned – which means it’s been factored into their decisions already. But what you are missing is that all these issues will likely resolve within 1-2 years — so it’s a very short term pain.
Why would I sell something in short term pain / distress. The markets made perfect sense – everyone sold / markets dumped (on the war news / fear). Then people thought a little more – If the oil issue resolved and the company grew by 10% in the meantime – it’s going to be 10-20% higher (pre oil / war slump) in 1-2 years. So you’re playing a game of chicken. It makes 100% sense to buy back.
Everyone has just realized that the war / issues around it will likely be resolved in the next few years, so it’s a no-story. So – don’t base your decisions off it. If you’re still basing trading decisions around the war / events occuring around it – you’re about 2-3 months behind.
Ultimately, the US cannot conquer Iran, and Iran cannot defeat the US, so the market is correctly pricing in a resolution. How long that will take no one knows for sure.
No one knows but me. When I start buying again, market go Bear.
tell me you shorted without telling me you shorted
Printers go brrrrrrt
The US stock market went up through every war it ever fought. Tel Aviv stock exchange is up 700% despite all of theirs. War is the most profitable industry in human history. Always has been.
[ Removed by Reddit ]
Earnings are great. Markers are about earnings, not politics.
A lot of people, me included, have just become numb to all this and continued to buy again lol.
– Not all wars are the same
– Not all moments within a war are the same
– War can have a positive or negative affect on specific sectors or companies in the market
– War doesn’t drive the market, it’s just a thing among billions of other factors
– If an ongoing war meant stocks just drop and continue dropping then we’d all be rich, but instead the market acts like an actual market, reacting to news and data as it becomes available, not just a smooth-brained single-direction glide based on 1 or 2 macro factors known by everyone on earth.
Geopolitical events rarely matter in the market. Corporate profit projections remain high. No reason to not be bullish right now imo
Rumor is that they are coming back to negotiating table and the ceasefire will be extended with US allies in the region pushing hard for an agreement. On top of that the negative impact from the war has been lower than expected so far. So while the amount of ripping is surprising, there are reasons behind this.
What does a war have to do with American companies making money? If anything the rich will get even richer from it.
War doesn’t affect stock indexes if anything it’s used as an excuse/reason for price action. At the end of the day the rich always get richer after a war so every headline is just a soo… Calls? Meme
No point in looking for something to make sense in a country where a billionaire rapist, felon, child abusing paedophile was elected president and is being propped up by the most depraved and corrupt political party in history.
The stock market is very forward looking. Finance101 at its finest
Trump as gone in waving his dick too close to the fire. Got his tip burnt and now trying to save face with a deal but not sure Iran will play ball. Hopefully he sees sense but think his ego is going to get the better of him as usual and a long drawn out war might be on the cards.
As a 30 year investor, follow the earnings calls. Revenue and earnings are at record highs. Guidance is healthy and positive. Why wouldn’t the market go up?
Reddit was insanely bearish so inverse
Not irrationality, it’s positioning. Systematic funds got forced to de-gross during the Hormuz scare and are now rebuilding exposure, that’s mechanical flow, not conviction. Combine that with dealer gamma flipping positive after the ceasefire held a week and vol sellers unwinding tail hedges, and you get a rally that looks detached from headlines. The market isn’t pricing the current news, it’s unwinding the pessimism already baked in.
# 🧭 So what should investors actually do?
Probably the boring answer no one wants:
* Don’t go all-in chasing green candles
* Don’t sit fully in cash waiting for the “perfect” crash that never comes
* Stay invested, keep some dry powder, and accept that nobody actually knows what’s going on
Because right now, the market looks like it’s pricing in a happy ending…
That’s it? Your thesis is that the war ain’t over so it should go down?
Inflation is coming, stocks go up.
The only irrationality is you drinking the reddit kool-aid and reacting to politics. Buy, hold, and buy some more. The market will continue going up with or without you.
Markets are forward looking
“No one knows” = you haven’t looked. Markets aren’t ripping on vibes… they’re pricing liquidity, earnings, and rate cuts. Geopolitics only matters if it hits those. Right now, it hasn’t. But it might.