I'm long US equities and plan to stay that way. But with the Iran situation still unresolved and the rally built on ceasefire
hopes, I want a simple daily sanity check, not to time the market, just to know if something is cracking beneath the surface.
Right now I'm thinking of tracking 5 signals after close each day: S&P 500 drawdown from recent high, VIX, 10Y yield, credit spreads (HYG as proxy), and Brent crude.
The idea is: if all 5 are calm, sleep well. If 2-3 start flashing at once, maybe take a closer look.
Is this overkill? Am I missing something obvious? Would you swap any of these out?
I'm bullish but want a simple daily check that therally is still intact. What macro signals would youwatch?
byu/Critical-Gene-1422 instocks
Posted by Critical-Gene-1422
3 Comments
“Not trying to time the market, but how can I time the market?”
Call / put ratios
The sell side of the book has been liqudated over the last 2 weeks , nothing left
Checks notes… ah yes blackrock and morgan stanley are saying its a great time to buy , trump pumping market like its his last day on earth
Order book filled with juicy retail longs at all time highs ….doesn’t take a genius to work out what happens next
This market is running on pure hopium and belief that if anything goes wrong the fed and congress will be there to backstop investors losses. Has happened in all the times that market has crashed significantly in short periods of time. Privatize the gains, socialize the losses. GFC and Covid are perfect examples.