Can someone please explain this Market manipulation happening now? Like an idiots guide. What impact with the closing have? What will the stock market look like on Monday.
Market manipulation with the Strait?
byu/Melodic-Elk-5465 inoil
Posted by Melodic-Elk-5465
14 Comments
I’m not an expert but as thing stands now oil price should go up pretty significantly on Monday. But who knows… i guess it all depends of the mood that carrot man wakes up in a few hours. If the U.S. makes any kind of concession and the straight returns to a more normal flow, prices are unlikely to change significantly.
People place large market bets the price will go up or down, because they have been told global news events before it happens
If your not in the know your not ment to be in the know. Iran recognized the pattern of escalation when markets are closed and De-escalation on Tuesday. They threw a wrench into that.
Monday is a long way away, time for many more flips and flops before then. Trump is just waking up now, expect some ALL CAPS tweets shortly.
Nobody – especially here on Reddit – knows. You may see a drop in the markets; you may see another ATH.
-yes
-ok an idiots guide.
-Oil and associated Oil market securities will increase in price.
-The Stock market outside of petroleum related securities will go down again.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President BTB.
I’m tired of being right and still losing. I bought oil calls and shares a few days before the first US missile. Day 1 was green but held cause I knew this would drag out. HODLing longer I guess.
Just assume the market will overreact to positive-seeming diplomatic news (especially truth social) and underreact to significantly more important negative infrastructure / supply side news and it all makes sense.
If Iran or the USA announce the straight is open, oil will go down and stocks will go up.
If Iran or the USA announce a closure, or attack oil tankers or energy infrastructure, oil will go up and stocks will go down.
But US stocks, in general, go up given all the money the US prints.
If Trump tweets a peace deal is close, stocks will go up. Unlikely we test the lows from a few weeks ago unless Iran can stop oil shipping in the Red Sea using the Houtis
These two attacks aren’t spectacular enough to move markets. Maybe the “re-closure” is however.
The new Iranian spokesperson, Tehran Don says the strait is open tho
Supply shock, not manipulation. Qatar’s force majeure killed helium. No helium = no chip fab cooling. 92% of global sulfur comes from refining, which becomes sulfuric acid for copper/nickel mining. Feedstocks are the chokepoint, not crude.
Reality simply doesn’t matter anymore. The market can and will be manipulated to fit whatever narrative makes the big players the most money.
Since the war began, there hasn’t been a single day of normal traffic in Hormuz, and yet oil is down to $82. Trump will likely lie again on Mon/Tues during the round 2 talks in Pakistan and the market will eat it up while the strait remains closed.
Oil prices will go up. That will increase inflation concerns. Stocks will go down. Oil market trading starts again on Sunday, 6pm, NY time. By Sunday, 7pm you will know the new view on the price of oil. Then you can guess how the market will open on Monday, 9:30 pm. But you will also be able to see how the Asia markets respond to this as they open late Sunday night (their Monday morning).