The oil price fell 10 – 15 dollars when Iran «opened-up-ish» SoH on friday, since it’s now closed again, does anyone see why the oil price shouldn’t go up to the same level it was when the market opens?
Just wanting to hear different opinions.
Edit: spelling
Does anyone see why the oil price should’t go back up when market opens?
byu/leftsaidfredrighty inoil
Posted by leftsaidfredrighty
14 Comments
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I bought a whole bunch of oil exposure yesterday so I certainly hope so
The only reason I can think of is because the market has been insanely optimistic and apparently disconnected from the physical reality of the situation.
So if it makes sense for it to go up it’ll probly go down, that’s my observation at this point.
9am tweets
Because Bessent is shorting the shit out of oil futures.
The futures market is pricing for June even maybe July by now. No one knows what will happen between then and now, the prices reflect conflict termination by then, which isn’t entirely unrealistic. Although yes, I do think the markets have been underpricing ever since the ceasefire and we are liable for a big up gap if/when the conflict restarts and when the air pockets move through the system, which be this or next week.
The market operates on delusion it will do the opposite of everything because it’s looking into the future in 7 years at this point.
Oil will probably fall as everything will magically get better soon and everything can be fixed in a week apparently after a ceasefire according to markets sentiment.
Trump makes a tweet and it goes down $5 more.
This “market” price is not real. A Singapore refinery unload oil from a tanker 2 day ago. It paid 210$/barrel for real oil.
Eventually reality will reintroduce itself, likely when oil companies with significant spot exposure post unbelievable earnings. However, we are watching in real time, Trump turning the entire global economy into the same pump and dump scams that he used his entire fucking career. Don’t forget, Trump’s history is just a series of pump and dump scams leading to bankruptcies, but now he’s doing it with international markets and there are real human lives that are and will be further impacted by this. However much contempt you have for Trump, it’s not even close to enough. He’ll probable flee to Israel to try to live out whatever years he has left after grifting billions from these constant insider trades.
Weekend oil tends to be a relatively reliable indicator, at the minute 3-5% up on open
rationally yes. but we don’t live in a rational world so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I was buying Friday 🤷♂️
Because it goes down more than it should and goes up less than it should?