Fundamental Analysis:
Economic backdrop – 🥠does not care about high oil prices or the midterms. He wants high oil prices and the strait closed so the USA can export oil to Europe and Asia. He does not care about the midterms because he is done with domestic policy after the 🅱️ig 🅱️eautiful 🅱️ill. Even without Congress, he can do whatever he wants with foreign policy.
Longer term outlook – This will be a short term crash in the secular bull market. A.I. is not a bubble; some of the companies suck and will die, but the buildout needs to happen to save the economy from demographic collapse.
Technical Analysis:
The rally has been on low declining volume, indicative of low conviction by big money. There are multiple points of bearish divergence on the RSI on the SPY weekly chart and multiple exhaustion gaps on the SPY daily chart. The lower trend line points to SPY 550 in July, SPY 560 in October, or SPY 575 in December. If SPY does not crash to the trend line, retesting the pre-liberation high at around 610 is likely.
Meme Analysis:
The fear and greed index reached 69.
Motivation:
I usually stick to shitposting, but this DD is for someone special.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/2xGO4T7i05
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/k1cgsNYGgw
Position:
TLDR:
The market is at or near a top. SPY is headed towards either 550 in July, 560 in October, 575 in December, or 610 sometime during the year if the trend line fails.
Upcoming Stock Market Drop Will Be Epic Fury
byu/ChungWuEggwua inwallstreetbets
Posted by ChungWuEggwua
42 Comments
Go back to sleep you silly ber.
Stole my girl in 86
I’m buying an unhealthy amount of TSLA puts at open.
Crack is being smoked if you think trump let’s SPY fall under 680 before midterms
Way too much data for this sub. Just say puts.
Its illegal to have more than 20mins of red
https://preview.redd.it/m1q3k1hkn8wg1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=628d377328ea70468956a813b822313d6ba6fa47
“He doesn’t care about midterms.” Okay bud.
Ghalibaf’s message is that real oil is the foundation and everything else depends on it. He’s implying the narrative works only because the supply isn’t being challenged.
So line go down?
I stopped at “fundamental analysis”
So calls then?
https://preview.redd.it/lh4t5qnbo8wg1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b3b91f6c1ab86fc25317c4d787602e073417b7ca
Gurl are you the market oracle.
Red premarket, green day
Remindme! 7 days
While long haul the market will pull. But short term, we are fucking ripping.
Calls
My grandma still all in INTC.
https://preview.redd.it/j9pr5qm2p8wg1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e0f300273a84fe069afc8f5feb82ff5650868910
Great position on puts good luck
Believe it or not, calls
You always say that.
Your entire thesis is built on political perceptions.
There are few things more important to the administration right now than getting oil down. Of course the midterms are a concern. It’s his legacy.
The bull market is fully intact. This will be worked out in very short order or at least the can will be kicked down the road.
Posting stuff everyone knows. Market goes higher
Buy the dip
This is why I inverse wsb. Calls it is. Test SPY $810 by October
Puts
Sure. Get a bigger butt plug. Yall been saying this for years. Everyone could have just bought leap in tech near the money and not be destitute butt hurt bears.
HAHAHAHAH FOH
Okay, SPY 800 is on the way !
No one cares more about the midterms than Trump.. that’s pretty obvious
Headed higher next 4 weeks. Sell in May and walk away. Buy again in October
You bought prior to the Mag 7 Earnings where anything can be announced. You might end up being right, but the timing seems off.
How do you deal with Theta decay?
Stopped reading at “AI is not a bubble”, scrolled to your positions, bought SPY calls. No more Mr Nice Guy. Thanks for your attention to this matter.
“AI is not a bubble because the buildout is needed”
Just because it’s needed, doesn’t mean it’s not a bubble. AI is a paper tiger: machine learning is nothing new but has linear returns, whereas LLMs are severely overconflating the perception of what the tech is actually capable of to business idiots.
Opinion discarded
How tf are we not even in the “extreme greed” zone yet holy shit what a pos metric lol
69 – Nice
Idc, id fucking care about anything anyone has to say about anything. As of late, it wouldn’t matter if Apple, Amazon, and nvidia home offices and warehouses and labs get bombed all at the same time, there will be a dip, and then a tweet to rocket up 1-2%. Not one fucking thing in the last month and a half ever ever dropped us as fast as the market went up due to a fake article or a fake tweet… I will forever refuse from this point on to think the majority of people on this sub are right at the same time. WE ALL THINK ITS GOING TO TANK TOMORROW. So for better or worse I have to buy calls. I have to. Because if I buy puts I’ll lose my ass, if I buy nothing it will rocket up and be another 3,000% odte I miss out on.
Calls after the first red candle after market open
>A.I. is not a bubble; some of the companies suck and will die, but the buildout needs to happen to save the economy from demographic collapse
That *is* the bubble, though. There’s insane amounts of money invested in shit companies that are worth nothing.
And even the companies that don’t suck are very obviously overvalued and nowhere even close to returning on investment any time soon.
People that keep saying this just don’t understand what a bubble is. It’s nothing to do with how good AI is or how good it will be in future or how good any of the companies are, even. It’s just basic overvaluation.
69, nice.
you drew that fake line and I was like “ugh” and then I scrolled down and saw you were using the cnn fear and greed index and then I knew you’re full of shit.