spy analysis 4/20

SPY sliced thru $710 ZGL on friday close. sitting 705.38 now. thats the whole setup going in

above 710 dealers were long gamma. pinning, fading rips, buying dips. below 710 they flip short gamma. they chase the move. moves go further faster. both directions. atr expands.

yeah i know net gex still reads +710M, ignore it. the whole stack is above spot now. where we actually sit ($705) dealers are short gamma. thats what matters

the map top down:

720 call wall $11.67M = hard cap

715 king▲ + call wall = reclaim target

712 sentry

711 sentry

710 ZGL / king▼ = THE line

707 sentry

705.38 spot

700 put wall $8.29M = primary magnet

693 put wall = stretch if 700 breaks

monday plays:

bear (my primary, 60%) opens under 707, fails to reclaim 710 on first test. slides to 700. if 700 breaks on vol >1.3x avg next stop is 693. this is the short gamma amp path. dealers chasing delta the whole way down. entry: short <707 on vol confirm. TP 700, stretch 693. stop above 711

bull reclaim (25%) gap down near 703, quick reversal. reclaims 707 then 710 on vol. that reclaim flips regime back bull. 715 becomes the magnet. entry: long >710 on reclaim candle w/ vol. TP 715, stretch 720. stop <707

chop (15%) pins 700-710. light vol only. fade rails dont chase

first 15 min tells you everything:

opens and fails 707 immediately = bears have it. short the bounces to 710

opens and reclaims 710 first push = bulls have it. ride to 715

opens 703-707 indecisive = wait. let the ladder break first

the vix variable:

short gamm below zgl only matters if vix shows up. vix spikes >20 monday and 693 is realistic imo. vix stays sub-18 expect 700 to hold on first test

bottom line:

spy broke gamma. regime flipped. play the levels. respect 710 or get run over

710 is THE line above = bulls resume, 715 in play

below = 700 magnet, then 693 if vol confirms

not financial advice. stay small. GL monday