What Is the Probability of a Recession ? The Message from Yield Spreads https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/sep/what-probability-recession-message-yield-spreads Posted by Low_Ability4450
Low_Ability4450 on April 21, 2026 9:03 am A useful distinction between the inversion as a binary event, and the yield spreads as a probabilistic signal. That nuance often gets lost in the recessions discussions
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A useful distinction between the inversion as a binary event, and the yield spreads as a probabilistic signal. That nuance often gets lost in the recessions discussions