I spent years in the biotech industry, and I'm telling you right now: BioNTech's combination of bispecific antibodies and mRNA cancer shots is the closest thing to a holy grail that we've seen in a decade. At least, that's what I and most other researchers took away from the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) last weekend.
Most of you only know BioNTech because they developed the Pfizer COVID vaccine in 2021, allowing you to return to your lives of losing money behind the Wendy's dumpster. But the real gem are the founders, Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci. They're absolute geniuses. They aren't in it for the money; they just want to cure cancer. Google them. Their biographies would make even an Asian mother say, "I'm proud of you."
And they just announced that they will step down by the end of 2026 to start a new, research-driven spin-off. Why? Because their company, BioNTech, has finally grown up. They’re handing the keys to the ruthless US pharma suits to milk the commercialization phase while they go back to the lab to do what they do best.
Now, let's discuss the AACR NBC piece that every oncologist is talking about. Just search for "pancreatic cancer" on X (I can't share links here):
They highlighted BioNTech's individualized mRNA vaccine for pancreatic cancer (autogene cevumeran). Historically, this diagnosis was a death sentence with brutal recurrence rates. Now, early trial data shows that half the patients who received this custom-built vaccine mounted a strong immune response and remained completely cancer-free 6 years after their surgery and treatment. And all of this is a highly complex, individualized vaccine that is still in its early clinical refinement. But the mRNA magic doesn't stop there. They are also seeing massive potential with BNT116, their off-the-shelf mRNA shot for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC), where early-stage immune responses are off the charts. Add to that the fact that they are already running Phase 2 trials expanding autogene cevumeran (BNT122) into colorectal cancer, and the upside potential here is of the charts!
But BNTX offers more than just mRNA cancer vaccines. Its oncology pipeline is huge. In total, BioNTech has 29 indications in Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies. While I don't expect all of them to succeed, if you go by normal oncology approval statistics, at least a few will. The crown jewel is BNT327 (pumitamig), a PD-L1/VEGF bispecific antibody. It's so potent that last year, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) signed a deal worth up to $11.1 billion, splitting global profits 50/50. BNTX has above $20 billion in cash reserves that have remained stable for years due to interest and milestone payments. This provides the ultimate downside protection. They also have their (shrinking) Covid business, which generates over 1 billion USD in cash flow each year.
Do the math: The cash plus the 50% BNT327 BMS deal exceeds BNTX's market cap by a large margin. You're essentially getting the rest of the pipeline and the profitable Covid business for free. BNT327 has been filed for an uncountable number of cancer types and is gearing up to compete with Keytruda, a $25 billion-a-year drug.
Upcoming catalysts to print your tendies:
* Early May: Pivotal data for Gotistobart (BNT316, their anti-CTLA-4 antibody). If the Objective Response Rate (ORR) beats the standard of care in advanced solid tumors, the stock rockets.
* Late May: Global Phase 3 readout (DYNASTY-Breast02) for BNT323 (DB-1303, their HER2 ADC) in breast cancer.
* Late May / Early June (ASCO): The Super Bowl of oncology. Expect a massive info dump here. We need fresh combo data from the BNT327 trials. If the safety profile holds up without crazy toxicities, it's a wrap.
* H2 2026: FDA filing for BNT323 in endometrial cancer, riding on ridiculous Phase 2 data showing an ORR of roughly 58%.
* H2 2026: Results for BNT113 (HPV16+ head/neck cancer) and the Phase 2/3 AHEAD-MERIT trial. Hard mRNA data that will finally re-rate the entire company.
My Position:
$120,000 in BNTX 2028 $115 Leaps. 💎🙌
I think the upside over the course of 2026 is massive as they switch to commercial mode.
$BNTX YOLO – Betting $120k that cancer gets cured in the next few years
byu/AnyChange8760 inwallstreetbets
Posted by AnyChange8760
17 Comments
Approved!! Great stuff OP! Thanks for reposting so I could approve!
Way too much money in keeping cancer not curable, not gonna happen
I agree with your sentiment, see my analysis here:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech_bntx_market_capitalization_is_near_cash/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech_bntx_market_capitalization_is_near_cash/)
I don’t understand the transition from pancreatic cancer to lung cancer in your post.
Regarding the BMS deal they will receive $2 billion unconditionally before 2029 in addition to $1.5 billion already paid. That’s a total upfront payment of $3.5 billion. While there are more milestone payments, we can also calculate with $2 billion cash plus at least $3.5 billion for the remaining 50% share. That would justify a $25.5 billion market capitalization.
If you add $20 billion cash and $10 billion R&D expenses in the last 5 years, you get a $30 billion market capitalization. I feel less is absurd, that would indicate they are wasting money while the results look good so far.
There is also the completed CureVac acquisition and the included license agreement with GSK for vaccines. That’s in addition to the license agreement with Pfizer for vaccines. Ultimately we will see seasonal and pandemic influenza mRNA vaccines. And other diseases are in the vaccine pipeline like HIV and Malaria.
I like the spiel but isn’t IBRX curing cancer ?
My god those LEAPS are really not too expensive. What is your cost basis? Don’t you need to show a screenshot of your positions?
IBRX seems like the better move.
$13.7Bcash on hand, only $267M debt… that is awesome.
Aren’t the founders leaving the company later in the year?
I sold bntx around 450. Bought in around 95-100 . Let me know when it gets back to my sell price.
You can say goodbye to that money from now.
Curing cancer is not profitable
Yes if you want lose ton of money quick, bio pharma is the way.
Damn those LEAPS are up 15% today. Your position is already looking good
Big pharma is betting billions annually that it doesn’t get cured so uh, yeah good luck dude.
So my analysis of the trial is that it is a PHASE 1 trial that has a VERY SMALL sample size (n=16). It enrolled EARLY STAGE patients who received CURATIVE therapy (surgery + chemoradiation + vaccine) instead of late-stage patients which is when it mostly presents. These patients already had a higher survival probability relative to other pancreatic cancer patients, you cannot reasonably attribute their improved survival to the vaccine. This is not to say the vaccine doesn’t work, as half of the patients responsed to the vaccine and a majority are still surviving, but it sure as hell would require many, many more years and larger trials. Until I see more convincing data, this isn’t the holy grail.
you think big pharma is going to allow a cure to their main revenue driver??
even Bill Gates said we have a population problem and was looking at pandemic play outs to take the global population down
given that and the amount of cancer treatment income…this simply aint gonna happen
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