Simple ocean-based model forecasts a powerful El Niño, over 2 °C warmer than normal
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-simple-ocean-based-powerful-el.html
Posted by Cristiano1
Simple ocean-based model forecasts a powerful El Niño, over 2 °C warmer than normal
https://phys.org/news/2026-04-simple-ocean-based-powerful-el.html
Posted by Cristiano1
4 Comments
The Wyrtki-CSLIM currently predicts the development of a strong El Niño, more than 2 °C warmer than normal over the equatorial eastern Pacific, toward the end of this year. This up-to-date ENSO forecast is available online at the UH Sea Level Center.
“Our Wyrtki model is predicting a stronger El Niño than most of the other statistical models, and it is in line with the much more sophisticated dynamical models,” said Matthew Widlansky, study co-author and associate director of the UH Sea Level Center. “However, it is important to note that all models have uncertainties, and the climate impacts of each El Niño event are different.”
If that holds, it could amplify a lot of existing trends pretty quickly.
Strong El Niño events usually mean more extreme weather globally, heat, droughts in some regions, flooding in others, so it’s less about the ocean temp alone and more about the after effects.
Well, this is good really – it will show the most unstable doomers the world won’t evaporate if/when it hits +2C, just like it did not evaporate when it hit 1.5C during the last El Niño.
The headline is a little wonky IMO. I believe it’s saying a predicted index of +2c sea surface temps in the niño development region, not +2c compared to a “normal El Niño”. El Niño is by definition warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial pacific.
Funny enough, this may be on the lower end. I’ve seen quite a lot of modeling showing an even stronger El Niño event than that, but we need to get past the spring barrier.