The ceasefire extension is seen as “moderately bullish” for bonds, but the real signal is how muted the reaction has been. Investors seem to be pricing in prolonged uncertainty rather than short-term relief.
We’re already seeing it in yields. The U.S. 2-year dropped to 3.764% (-1.3 bps) and the 10-year to 4.283% (-0.8 bps), small moves, but clearly leaning cautious. At the same time, rate expectations remain uncertain. Markets are pricing only ~9 bps of cuts for 2026, while some forecasts point closer to 50 bps. That gap says a lot. Globally, growth is expected to slow as well. Asia-Pacific is projected to ease from 4.3% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, despite short-term support from the AI boom.
Curious how others are viewing this shift.
Markets are reacting to the Middle East situation with more calm than expected.
byu/ChartNavigator ininvesting
Posted by ChartNavigator
4 Comments
No possible way Israel upholds the ceasefire when a deal is impossible and negotiations aren’t even planned.
Markets that are “manic” tend to proceed great crashes. I also think Wallstreet needs a win, because if it doesn’t the AI house of cards goes down quickly
Its technically over
We are heading towards ATH again
The Iranians opened fire on two more ships overnight and the market literally does not care. This is dangerous levels of head in the sand greed.