it's so easy to read graham and buffett and just nod along about needing a strict margin of safety. makes total sense in a book. but actually sitting here holding a 30% cash position while the broader market just ignores gravity is genuinely starting to mess with my head
intellectually I know everything is historically expensive. but the psychological toll of just watching fiat sit there is rough. im currently parking the bulk of my dry powder in SGOV just to squeeze out some safe yield while waiting for actual value opportunities to show up
lately I've been forcing myself to slowly move into some underlying value assets just to get that cash working a little bit. I've been grabbing some tokenized stocks via edel just to keep things within my on-chain workflow, but it still feels like a drop in the bucket compared to the massive cash pile just sitting there doing nothing.
how do other value-oriented folks here deal with this? do you just capitulate eventually and accept that the old metrics are dead, or do you just eat the opportunity cost and wait for a pullback? tbh being disciplined feels a lot like just being punished right now.
The mental drag of holding 30% cash right now is getting brutal
byu/Xelephyr ininvesting
Posted by Xelephyr
12 Comments
As it as easy recognizing a value opportunity as it is to recognize when the general market is overpriced? Genuine question.
What about your strategy is disciplined? If you’re young then you’re trying to time the market. If you sold to get to 30% cash then you have to time your buy in right and you’re already 0/1.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
We are 100% in a bubble. We just don’t know which way it’s going to burst; drop in asset prices, or inflate our way into higher earnings?
You listened to a geriatric grandpa who hasn’t outperformed spy in over 10 years… Big tech p/e’s were at 2017 lows. Mag 7 at 2019 lows. Should of had no cash
You could visit the Berkshire sub and witness this conundrum on a larger scale since BRK is holding onto 370B in cash and the stock has been steadily declining for over a year. Value is not working in this market so you have to decide if you’re “value or die” or if current conditions call for a change in strategy. Value would work again in a big downturn but that’s essentially waiting to time the market.
If you had followed your inner gut and put that in SMH/AI, how much would you have?
You missed the dip lol, stick to buy and hold ETFs if you’re not confident in what you’re doing.
Are you holding cash as dry powder to invest in equities “when a better opportunity comes along”? Yeah, that’s dumb, ineffective market timing, and that uneasy feeling is your brain telling you that it’s dumb.
Well you didn’t lose money so what’s the issue?
Either be all in all the time or be happy you didn’t lose any money. If you’re going to time the market and be upset when you miss rallies, then don’t time the market. You should be content not having lost money. Just wait until it seems reasonable again and go all in and never try to time it again after that. And accept that you might miss more gains until then.
You clearly know better than the market. Tell yourself honestly, if the market corrects another 10% would you know when to jump in and how much to deploy?
Markets have changed since Graham’s time. Still good advice but not gospel
hahahahahaha