Quick update for anyone positioned around the Hormuz situation.
Brent crossed 105 today. One ship made it through the strait in twelve hours. Normal volume is 130 ships per day. The shipping lane is effectively closed.
The detail the market hasnt priced is the timeline. Pentagon briefed Congress that mine clearing alone takes six months after any deal. Iran reportedly cant locate all its own mines. So even a handshake deal tomorrow means restricted shipping through October at minimum.
Pre war Brent was 66. Were up 59 percent in under two months. Consumer sentiment at 47.6, lowest ever recorded. Inflation expectations 4.8 percent.
If you were watching our post from Saturday about the ceasefire expiring, this is the follow through. Iran walked, oil is structural, and the timeline just got a floor.
Oil at 105 with no realistic path back to normal for 6 months minimum
byu/Mother-Grapefruit-45 inStockMarket
Posted by Mother-Grapefruit-45
12 Comments
BRENT CRUDE. It’s a type of oil – not the only one. It’s generally a good idea to clarify so you don’t confuse people.
Trump is the best salesman ever for EVs, solar panels and his beloved windmills.
Great, market is going to be a roller coaster for a while
Don’t forget, Iran reportedly also laid more mines today.
Also the guy in charge of fixing this mess publicly stated he really needed a shit on camera today as well, right after he fabricated a story about getting 8 female Iranian hostages released…
yep, I think I’ll keep my position in the market right where it is. I’m not selling, but I’m not buying right now either. Too many ways for things to go wrong.
Believe it or not, calls
It will 100% go back to 85 in the next week.
Trumpers think this is some art of the deal going on here. But this isn’t real estate negotiations lol
Holding cash and some BRK.
Not really concerned with the market “getting away from me” right now.
This report was refuted by the pentagon, and is also 2 days old. The futures market has accounted for this. Ships can pass through Hormuz in an area that hasn’t been mined, albeit slower than normal.
Normal volume is not 130 tankers. Maybe ships. 30-40 tankers a day is more like it.
It’s interesting to me that usually when he makes a statement the price does down for a short period of time. When he announced the indefinite ceasefire that didn’t really happen this time. Which is weird. WTI is back at $106 and gas prices will have to react soon
The interesting thing is everything seems to be going up faster this time even with this ceasefire and it didn’t help him at all. In fact, the rate the price has increased is faster than any other time I think.