Weird behavior in the stock market lately!

Which is why you shouldn’t attempt to time the market…

I feel so unburdened, I just invest what I can when I can.

The largest companies on the planet are posting record earnings quarter after quarter, what dont you understand?

I dislike the impact a tweet or headline can have as of late. I miss sleepy Joe.

• A major geopolitical conflict

This war has been going on forever now.

• No real global support for the US/Israel side

Doesnt matter, no one is going to attack US soil, maybe Canada, but US doesnt have any major issues with them. Israel just isnt a big factor on US economy.

• Oil uncertainty

Our modern society knows how to handle this, and has shifted more away from just oil dependency to greener energy. This primary effects the power market, which survived before and like I said, less dependent.

• AI-driven job losses

People keep saying this, but realistically, where is AI taking jobs. most useful and biggest development in AI is around chat boxes. Machines making stuff has been around for decades, and so has user interfaces for making orders.

• Rising instability

tech and the power market is mostly effected here, and at least tech as shown record profits outside of their AI markets.

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I would say, companies learned how to grow with inflation now, and continue to grow extra high and fast due to this. As far as the US goes, I think the draft or an attack on US soil, or a large country black listing US would have to happen to have a substantial impact on the US market right now. That, or a substantial job market decrease, bringing unemployment up much higher. maybe the following year or 2 as banks start closing more credit accounts we might see a substantial dip.

Either way, dont try to time the market. dont act shocked. plan for it to go either way.

Short term traders are moving the market, not people positioning for medium to long term. The dramatic swings based on truth social posts, telegram rumors, and headlines show this.

Eventually the damage to the real economy from this conflict will percolate up to the equities market, but the fallout in terms of inflation and demand destruction will take a while to truly materialize in the west, especially the US. The medium term (6 months to a year) looks quite grim, and arguably those grim outcomes are locked in and only getting more so as this continues, but there is money to be made until we get there.

The same goes for AI. It isn’t yet destroying white collar jobs at scale. Yes, some companies (especially in tech) are laying people off citing AI, but those headlines are misleading. Companies move far more slowly than technology, and arguably the technology isn’t even there yet anyway. Regardless, there hasn’t been a significant wide scale decrease in consumer demand from AI job losses yet. In the meantime, why not trade the hype?

The market is not the economy. AI companies,.oil companies and military companies are doing great. So the market is reacting accordingly. Remember that in WW2 the Market performed better than in the great depression.