The capacity constraint is definitely getting worse as we saw after Intel’s reports and owing GPUs, CPUs and data centres is becoming increasingly valuable.
The capex-heavy and resource-intensive nature of this build up is pushing inflation higher and we are already seeing this in electricity, energy and materials.
For the next 10 years this will continue to increase inflationary pressures and the peak will likely come in 2032, according to the report by Blackrock.
Disinflation will come much later and only if there’s less labour demand, slower wage growth…
Estimates are below
| Year | AI capex inflationary impact | AI productivity disinflationary impact | Net effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026 | +0.07 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2027 | +0.16 | -0.02 | +0.14 |
| 2028 | +0.25 | -0.06 | +0.19 |
| 2029 | +0.28 | -0.09 | +0.18 |
| 2030 | +0.32 | -0.12 | +0.20 |
| 2031 | +0.37 | -0.15 | +0.23 |
| 2032 | +0.41 | -0.19 | +0.23 |
| 2033 | +0.39 | -0.22 | +0.18 |
| 2034 | +0.35 | -0.25 | +0.10 |
| 2035 | +0.30 | -0.28 | +0.03 |
| 2036 | +0.26 | -0.30 | -0.04 |
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, April 2026
Everyone says AI is deflationary. Not for the next 10 years.
byu/Dedomrazzzz instocks
Posted by Dedomrazzzz
3 Comments
Everyone?!
I’m not sure anyone has said that.
Does this mean they believe AI capex spending will be 7 times larger in 2032 than in 2026?