His intention is to bring down the price of oil, and from what I can see much MSM is either falling for it or intentionally helping him. E.g. CNBC keeps putting out optimistic headlines about "negotiations" and an end to the war.
The jawboning has worked in crashing the price multiple times.
However it occurred to me that all of this is delaying a resolution because it removes urgency in finding a solution and it gives the Iranians time to keep blockading.
It's like a cancer is getting worse because the doctor says it's all under control instead of doing all he can to fix it, and the patient and their family are putting no pressure on the doctor because they have been duped by the jawboning.
Is Trump's jawboning actually worse for the oil supplies and hence prices?
byu/northcasewhite inoil
Posted by northcasewhite
8 Comments
Kinda, it is possible to get rid of the problem immediately, but you are left with permanent toll on strait and most likely inevitable war among Arab nations, or everyone just get in on the idea and they will add additional tax for exporting oil in form of common toll.
He is losing control of the narrative.
I think Trump simply has no clearly viable plan and is paralyzed by indecision, so he’s effectively playing for time in the hope that something exterior changes. I assume there’s a psychological aspect there wrt the oil price, that investors are adopting the comfort blanket of assuming something beneficial will happen due to how unthinkable the alternative is.
Absolutely, the real nail in the coffin was when he said “i thought the stock market and oil prices would’ve reacted worse”.
Trump doesnt think this is a big deal because the market is making it seem like it isnt a big deal.
Trump jawboning is preventing the market from discovering the real price. When a world market like oil does not discover the correct price it can lead to recession and shortages in mild cases and in serious cases famine, war and collapse of the entire world economy.
We need 200 dollar oil, not because it makes the idiot in office look bad but because it’s the real market clearing price, so the oil that exists can be distributed correctly and save lives.
Demand cannot be destroyed to meet the supply drop if prices don’t go up.
it’s like a spring that you keep working back and forth ‘just cause’ and one day you find that the spring been over kneaded and now behaves more like a slinky and someone busted up every other step of the stairs while all this was happening so you can’t even play with the piece of junk
I’m going to say the quiet part out loud. Note, I am not happy with trump as a president.
Trump’s ability to pull things out of his ass at the last possible moment is actually uncanny. The oil future guys don’t want to be holding the bag if trump does something crazy and magically fixes it. Trump’s ability to fail upwards cannot be overstated.
So basically the market has priced in him fixing it by magic. Unfortunately, this actually happened a lot before because the natural order of things wants to keep things the way they are after he shakes things up…
Now, I’m actually really not a fan of him, but credit where credit is due. He is able to pull a rabbit out of his hat. It just would be better if he didn’t do the thing in the first place to require him to need to pull the rabbit out of his hat.
Or: There’s some kind of CIA sci-op that is SELLING (naked) oil futures to pull the price down. Which then pulls the spot market down. When you have access to infinite money, because the money is denominated in your own currency, you can do glitches like this.