today’s vol setup feels asymmetric — Powell’s last presser plus Warsh transition plus 160 on USD/JPY

From a volatility perspective, today has more event risk stacked into it than a typical hold meeting.

Powell's last press conference. The market knows the rate decision. The unknown is tone — and specifically whether Powell's tone today will be read as binding for the June meeting, or whether Warsh's incoming policy stance immediately discounts whatever signal Powell sends.

Warsh has telegraphed hawkish tendencies — different inflation framework, balance sheet reduction, possibly less frequent press conferences. If Powell sounds even slightly dovish today, there's a question of whether that's actually tradeable given Warsh takes over in 16 days.

USD/JPY at 160 adds another jump-risk layer. Japan's intervention history at this level creates asymmetric downside on yen short positions. The BOJ held 6-3 — three members wanting to move is notable.

Tomorrow Q1 GDP and PCE data drop, which creates a second event day immediately after today's FOMC.

The setup feels like one where short-dated vol on EUR/USD and USD/JPY is underpriced relative to the actual event density. The rate decision is certain, but the guidance uncertainty, the transition uncertainty, and the Japan intervention uncertainty all argue for at least some jump-risk protection.

What's your read on current IV levels given this event stack?