Reading the actual results (https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/tovecimig-demonstrates-statistically-significant-benefit-113000084.html) it looks like the drug works, but “failed” in an secondary endpoint because of high crossover with other med, which is not entirely bad
Overall this 65% drop feels like an overreaction, did an LLM just read “failed” once in the release and decided to dump the stock?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMPX/
Posted by flight212121
4 Comments
It’s a trash bio-tech that got downgraded. Bio-tech is very volitile, especially in this market.
this looks less like a random panic and more like the market reacting to a key endpoint miss even if parts of the data looked strong. i used to misread these biotech drops too but it’s usually headline vs trial structure and i sometimes use trylattice to quickly break down results so i don’t jump to the wrong conclusion when reading them fast
I am all in, I checked the paper, and the result are overwhelmingly good.
They “missed” one of the key endpoint, but context matters. It would be unethical to not treat dying patients when there are no good alternatives in the market currently, hence the crossover. It might in fact be more questionable if they just let patients die because crossing over will hurt the statistic, even though there is a seemingly “working” drug thats available. From what I have gathered, PFS came in at HR=0.44 P<0.0001, meaning the drug cut the risk of progression or death by 56% which is very strong.
Crossover patients observed to have a median OS of 12.8 months comparing to 6.1 months for non crossover patients. HR 0.44 also means there is a large magnitude of benefit, OS doesn’t seemed to be harmed, showing a favorable benefit-risk profile. Also there are plenty of drugs that were approved without even taking the OS as one of the endpoint target so these BTC precedent are quite favourable for CMPX.
We don’t know if FDA will approve the drug but from a statistic standpoint there is a strong argument supporting the approval here. NFA