The entire reason stocks declined 10% during the war with Iran was the fear of an extended conflict that could lead to Hormuz being closed and oil prices being higher for longer. Stocks more than rebounded to new highs after a cease fire and the belief the US admin couldn't stomach a prolonged conflict and high oil prices.
Over the past few days, the very reason the market initially took a significant dump has mostly been confirmed. Hormuz is likely to be closed for longer than anyone expected back in March. Rising oil, combined with rising treasury yields due to expected inflation, have become a reality.
Yet stocks are mostly unmoved by this new reality. How's this possible? Are stocks really being artificially propped up until Spacex IPOs so that interested parties don't take a massive haircut? What could be the reason the market has all of a sudden chosen to ignore negative factors it once reacted violently to?
And before anyone says tech stocks have great earnings, IWM is still near ATH and it's full of profitless companies that are the most sensitive to high costs and high yields. These are the same stocks that took a massive dive in 2022 over high inflation and yields. Yet they're not behaving the same way as of 3 weeks ago.
Oil and 10Yr at war time highs. Stocks still near ATH. At what point do we acknowledge stocks are being propped for nefarious reasons?
byu/BGID_to_the_moon instocks
Posted by BGID_to_the_moon
25 Comments
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Don’t bet against the house.
Someone has shorts open lol
Retail injecting cash continuously..
The market doesn’t care about war. If anything this will make the markets go higher due to inflation.
Plus many of the companies in the stock market are not affected by oil prices. The ones that are have already been affected.
I look at the VIX futures curb and ignore the headlines or logic. Specifically front vs second month. Seems to make more sense than trying to make sense.
That can all change after 2:30pm today if Powell so much as whispers recession.
No mayo or pickles please.
Instead of trying to time the market, maybe you should just hold buddy? Would save you the hassle of crying over it on this sub if you do
You make it sound like there’s some secret commission of rich people who took a vote and decided to keep markets high. That’s not how it works.
The world, on average, has decided equities are one of the best places for capital right now. That’s why stock prices are so high. Because there are more buyers than sellers. That’s it.
There is no artificial prop. There is no artificial prop mechanism. People just think that stocks are the best place for their money. So the price of stocks has gone up due to supply and demand.
Shortly after I exit my positions hopefully
Your first mistake is assuming you know why stocks went down In the first place. This is why traditionally intelligent people never make any money in the stock market. They always think they know what is happening. People that find alpha know it’s all fugazi .
Not too mention HUUUUUUGE Capex spend on top of all that
You’re confusing your misunderstanding of how the market works with it being propped.
Where else are people going to put their money?
The stock market belongs to the investor class. Outside of institutional investors and companies, that’s the wealthy, retirement accounts, people getting stock as compensation, and people with enough disposable income to save and invest.
There’s 2 economies now. The haves and have nots. The haves have little better to do with their money given where interest rates are
Or stop overthinking it and just go with it..
When in Rome……
Why would it go down? 90% of the stock market is held up by the top 10% richest population and they’re only getting richer by the year. Where else would they put the money?
10y is not at all time highs
Time in the market beats timing the market. So I’ve heard
Increasing the money supply- Europe and Asia trade has lost its luster – AI and US has been a laggard and a relative value – low dollar makes US trade more attractive
McDouble price is up 130% since 2019 (at least where I live). SPY is also up 130% since 2019.
Perhaps it’s really that simple..
The market has the emotional regulation of a toddler. This isn’t new.
lmfao bears been wrong for the past 20 years. at what point do you have to accept that it’s truly different this time?? everybody have access to a brokerage nowayudays, its no longer in the boomer days but keep betting aginast the market LOL
It’s not nefarious reasons. It’s because earnings have been really strong and are expected to remain strong. If big tech and semiconductor firms stopped reporting massive earnings growth, the market would correct very quickly.
Today will be a big test, with 4 big tech firms reporting earnings today. The market could dip, or it could rally further if their earnings impress.
First time?
We’ll see what happens, but has it ever occurred to you people that what happens in the beloved and always has been relevant “strait of Hormuz” might not impact the US economy that much?
Is it possible that it’s actually not as relevant to US daily life than people who make a living off of selling ads in articles and people who want the economy to crash to make a few bucks off shorting want you to believe?