I created a chart based on all the midterm elections pullback and rally. Has anyone else done this? It looks like there has been always been a correction with an average of -17.5% except for 1934, 1998, and 2002. I don't know why this year would be any different. Of course it rallies right after. I can't time the market of course, but I don't think we will be hitting anymore ATH before the correction – just waiting with dry powder at this point though, jumping back in when it hits -15%.
Posted by KemShafu
5 Comments
Interesting that 1998 and 2002 were the rare gain years for the incumbent lol
Past trends are not guaranteed to be a reflection of future results
With the oil induced inflation and consumers cutting expenses that might very well happen
Solid data. Those exception years usually had massive tailwinds that overrode the election noise. Keeping dry powder for a -15% entry is a smart, disciplined move
Do you have more specific timelines other than midterms? For example “within x amount of time of the midterms” , “before or after”, etc