Chances of disputing CP23 penalties

I made a typo on an account number for an estimated tax payment in 2025. I never received a notice that the payment didn't go through, so I assumed it had succeeded when I did my taxes.

Yesterday, I received a CP23 notice from the IRS saying they didn't have a record of this tax payment, and that I still owed taxes as well as some penalties and interest. It was only after this that I discovered the payment had failed.

My main contention in this issue is that I never received any notice (e-mail or otherwise) that the payment had failed. I did get a confirmation, which I assumed meant it was successful, but it turns out it was just a confirmation that the payment was "scheduled".

I can already sense what they're going to say if I dispute the penalties and interest (i.e. "It's not our fault you didn't check"). However, can it hurt me to send a letter to them requesting these penalties be waived because I never got a notice that the est. tax payment failed?