Close Menu
    Stocks

    Stop calling RAM “cyclical” while treating Nvidia like a “secular grower.” They are the same trade now.

    I keep seeing the same tired argument: 'Don't buy SK Hynix or Micron, RAM is cyclical and we’re at the top.'

    First off, if RAM is cyclical, then Nvidia and TSMC are cyclical too. You can’t build a Blackwell or Vera Rubin B100/B200 cluster without massive amounts of HBM3e and HBM4. If the AI 'cycle' ends for memory, it ends for the logic chips too. You can't have a brain without a nervous system. 

    The Valuation Gap is Hilarious:
    Nvidia and TSMC have been rallying for years and trade at massive P/E multiples. Meanwhile, the memory players only really started their 'AI' rally in earnest over the last 12-18 months.

    • Fact: In Q1 2026, SK Hynix posted an operating margin of 72%. That actually beat Nvidia’s 65% margin from their last quarter. 

    • Fact: Memory is no longer a 'commodity' where you just buy the cheapest stick. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a specialized, high-margin, custom-integrated component.
    • Fact: SK Hynix and Micron are effectively sold out of HBM through 2027.

    Nvidia (NVDA): ~40x P/E. People are paying $40 for every $1 of profit because they expect 'infinite growth.' 
    • Broadcom (AVGO): ~41x P/E.
    • Micron (MU): ~7.8x P/E. 
    • SK Hynix: ~5.9x P/E. 

    SK Hynix is trading at 6 times earnings while providing the HBM4 memory that Nvidia cannot ship without.

    Everyone is fine with Nvidia trading at a 40x P/E and Broadcom at 41x, calling them 'secular growth stories.' But the second you mention SK Hynix (P/E ~5.9x) or Micron (Forward P/E ~8x), people scream 'CYCICAL! SELL!'
    Here’s the reality: You cannot ship a single Nvidia Blackwell or Rubin chip without High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). If Nvidia is a secular grower, so is the memory that fuels it.

    So people, please stop!!!
    Sk Hynix needs at least 788% stock increase to reach Nvidia PE level.

    Stop calling RAM "cyclical" while treating Nvidia like a "secular grower." They are the same trade now.
    byu/SnooHedgehogs5162 instocks



    Posted by SnooHedgehogs5162

    10 Comments

    1. Aware_Secret_8910 on

      You are not wrong but keep in mind the market is currently trading on vibes

    4. Think_Monk_9879 on

      Stop trying to say stocks are overvalued. Stock price only goes up. No such things are overvalued 

    6. Forecydian on

      I think theres a disconnect in the market that big player like NVDA are now removed from the semi cycles because of the massive need for data centers and AI. also memory feels like a smaller pick and shovel aspect, or not as sexy I should say. all are important of course

    7. Choice_Potato_6279 on

      Nvidia has whole ecosystem, they’re not just selling GPU’s hence Nvidia is way bigger than AAAymd because a chip is just part of the puzzle.

    8. Electronic_Till_3724 on

      Its going to be like that atleast for 26 and a good part of 27. The cyclical or whatever they call it. 

    9. Singularity-42 on

      I’m myself looking for a good entry, but the downside risk is real. If any kind of slowdown happens, memory stocks are probably going to hurt the most and the fastest. Especially after such a crazy run.

      If the AI bubble pops (verdict is still pending, I think we still have some years or maybe even the pop doesn’t happen, only a plateau) then memory prices will collapse first (e.g. it a lot more of a commodity than Nvidia chips or TPUs).

    10. hello_everyone_555 on

      Wall Street is dating the flashy lead singer (Nvidia) but forgetting that the drummer (SK Hynix/Micron) is the only reason the band has a beat.

    Leave A Reply