Does “Sell in May” Still Apply in the Current Bitcoin Setup?

The “sell in May and go away” narrative is starting to circulate again, but the current market setup looks different from the conditions where that pattern has historically worked.

That seasonal trade tends to be more relevant when:

• The prior months have been strongly bullish
• Sentiment is elevated
• Markets enter May already extended

The current structure appears more mixed.

Recent context

• Bitcoin recently reclaimed the $80K level
• Earlier in the year, price spent time below longer-term averages
• Recent months included a period of drawdown rather than sustained expansion

On-chain / structural signals often discussed

• Reports of increased accumulation by larger holders over recent weeks
• Exchange reserves trending lower relative to prior years
• Price attempting to re-establish an upward trend

Taken together, this looks less like a late-cycle extension and more like a potential transition phase, though confirmation is still ongoing.

Seasonal patterns like “sell in May” can be useful heuristics, but they don’t always translate cleanly across different market conditions.

Wanted to know how others are thinking about this:

• Do you still factor in seasonal trades like “sell in May”?
• Or do you rely more on structure (trend, liquidity, on-chain data)?