Should I jump in now with the news coming from the hormuz situation?
I’ve been watching oil pretty closely the past few days, especially with all the headlines around the Strait of Hormuz and potential supply disruptions. Debating whether I want to drop a few thousand in before it takes off again to $140 a barrel It feels like the market is starting to price in a worst-case scenario, and some WTI-linked stocks have already begun moving.
At the same time, there’s a lot of conflicting information coming out, and I’m not sure how much of the narrative is accurate vs. politically driven noise. Some sources are downplaying the risk, others are suggesting things could escalate quickly. That uncertainty makes it hard to tell whether this is the beginning of a larger move or if we’re already near a short-term top driven by hype.
For those of you who have traded energy or geopolitical events before:
Is this the kind of situation where momentum typically continues, or does it fade once the initial news spike passes?
Are you looking at majors (XOM, CVX), upstream plays, or more leveraged smaller caps for this type of move?
I’m trying to figure out whether this is a legitimate opportunity or just FOMO kicking in after the initial run.
Appreciate any insight from people who’ve navigated it thus far
Posted by Zealousideal-Reach42
10 Comments
Where have you been these past 2 months?
Little late to jump on board. You get much above $120-130 you’re going to get demand destruction and a stall or fall in prices. The time to buy was in March when it was $75 a barrel. Oil can fall and fall pretty fast.
BREAKING: [https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-israel-iran-war-us-destroys-6-iranian-small-boats-shoots-down-missiles-and-drones-11449106](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-israel-iran-war-us-destroys-6-iranian-small-boats-shoots-down-missiles-and-drones-11449106)
I just buy the sector (XLE and XOP), and sit back and enjoy! Prices aren’t even as high as they were in 2022, and this disruption is 4-5x as worse (and likely will last even longer), so it’d be foolish to think this is the top.
This has been going on for a while. I have done well with oil during this (fertilizer as well), but am looking for when to reduce at this point, not add further.
“I want to drop a few thousand in before it takes off again to $140”
You’ll get demand destruction before that.
I do think that LNG infrastructure is somewhat compelling medium-term given that a lot of capacity was taken offline and that will take a long time to repair but if this situation had some resolution tomorrow those names are definitely trading lower.
The idea is to buy oil when there’s peace and sell it when inevitably war in the middle east happens.
Not to buy it after the war happened :/
I don’t know why stocks even sell off almost everyone knows every dip is going to be bought and it goes back to pre sell off value
If you have a long time horizon then I’d short it now.
Buy the news right?
>Is this the kind of situation where momentum typically continues, or does it fade once the initial news spike passes?
It continues, beyond all reason or attempt to stop it. I am buying USO. Among other linked equities.
As long as Israel exists, there will never be peace.