Fed and global conflicts are noise, market growth on earnings, 2026 will remain bullish because of this.

this is a transcript of the recent “Though on the market” podcast by J.P. Morgan, do you agree?

• Earnings are the "Heavy Lifter": Mike Wilson argues that earnings, not Fed policy or headlines, are the primary engine driving the market right now. With 16% growth and 6% median surprises, this is the strongest reporting season in four years.

• The Rally is Broadening: The market is moving past its "tech-only" phase. Earnings revisions are now trending higher in Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclicals, making the current leadership more sustainable and diverse.

• Pricing Power vs. Geopolitics: While the Iran conflict and supply chain issues have raised freight and input costs, companies are successfully passing these costs to consumers. High revenue surprises suggest that corporate pricing power is keeping margins healthy.

• Earnings are Beating the "Valuation Reset": Even though P/E multiples fell 18% from their peak due to higher interest rate concerns, the market has stabilized. This is because the sheer pace of earnings growth is effectively "outrunning" the drag from higher rates.

• Classic Bull Market Behavior: Wilson concludes that as long as earnings growth remains greater than the valuation reset, the U.S. equity market will likely "grind higher" for the rest of 2026, despite intermittent volatility.