“I feel that lately we’ve been having an ‘end of the American empire’ moment,” Times Opinion columnist Ross Douthat says. On this week’s episode of “Interesting Times,” Ross talks with Ray Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and, in Ross’s words, “an unlikely Cassandra” of America’s fall.
In this economic environment, Ross asks Ray, should we be more worried about 1970s-style stagflation or a Great Depression-like financial crash? And what should we do to prepare for these options?
Ray replies:
>We do not know a lot about what the world will look like in three to five years. What we don’t know is much greater than anything we know. I think we know that we are in increasingly disorderly times, and these are the greater risks.
>So what do I think that answer should be? I think that answer should be to know how to have a well-diversified portfolio that is largely balanced for these kinds of uncertainties.
>To give this simplicity, if you’re saying, “What is my typical portfolio?” There’s stocks, there’s bonds, there’s investments in other countries — diversification is good. I’m not going to be able to go through all the things about how to structure that. But I think any portfolio should have between 5 percent and 15 percent in gold because when you get into the really bad times for the rest of it, that is when gold does best. So whatever it is, it’s one of the reasons it’s been such a great investment in a sense over the last few years, because there’s a movement in that direction.
>So I would say: Balance, to know how to have good diversification in one’s portfolio as a hedge against the other stuff.
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“I feel that lately we’ve been having an ‘end of the American empire’ moment,” Times Opinion columnist Ross Douthat says. On this week’s episode of “Interesting Times,” Ross talks with Ray Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and, in Ross’s words, “an unlikely Cassandra” of America’s fall.
In this economic environment, Ross asks Ray, should we be more worried about 1970s-style stagflation or a Great Depression-like financial crash? And what should we do to prepare for these options?
Ray replies:
>We do not know a lot about what the world will look like in three to five years. What we don’t know is much greater than anything we know. I think we know that we are in increasingly disorderly times, and these are the greater risks.
>So what do I think that answer should be? I think that answer should be to know how to have a well-diversified portfolio that is largely balanced for these kinds of uncertainties.
>To give this simplicity, if you’re saying, “What is my typical portfolio?” There’s stocks, there’s bonds, there’s investments in other countries — diversification is good. I’m not going to be able to go through all the things about how to structure that. But I think any portfolio should have between 5 percent and 15 percent in gold because when you get into the really bad times for the rest of it, that is when gold does best. So whatever it is, it’s one of the reasons it’s been such a great investment in a sense over the last few years, because there’s a movement in that direction.
>So I would say: Balance, to know how to have good diversification in one’s portfolio as a hedge against the other stuff.
Watch, listen to or read their full conversation [here, for free](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/opinion/american-empire-future-ray-dalio.html?unlocked_article_code=1.glA.S7D3.Qz-AKnZ8C6MG&smid=re-nytopinion), even without a Times subscription.