While the initial payroll reports throughout 2025 appeared to show steady labor market growth, the cumulative revisions reveal that employment growth was materially weaker than originally reported.
Even after the stronger March 2026 revision, the broader trend still suggests a slowing labor market, which could signal weaker consumer demand, softer economic growth, and increased concern about the underlying strength of the economy.
April 2026 payroll report has not been included because it has not yet had any revisions made to it and the table of information is designed to reflect revisions to initial reports.
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Posted by yellowjackethokie
30 Comments
There are much big issues the market is ignoring, this is small in comparison.
We might legitimately be in the ultimate pump & then dump scenario right now. The euphoria stage. I bought a few assets like EWY at all time high before the war, and I checked today and they’re up 20% since then.
Euphoria is the last stage usually before a big crash.
Market is irrational
The stock market doesn’t react to facts, it reacts to how people are going to react to the facts. And people aren’t paying much attention at the moment.
Already priced in
You live in the present. Most everyone trading today knows we’re playing the biggest game of hot potato in recent memory. The narratives are absolutely silly at this point. Heck, it’s really funny seeing Qualcomm with this 100% surge as that was the Sandisk of the .com crash. But traders are greedy, and they’re going to try to greed out every last dime they can.
At some point big money is going to come back to the market with a completely off guard set of bulls who exhausted all their ammo thinking this party will go on forever. But as I said, we live in the present. Couldn’t tell youw hich day it’ll happen.
People losing jobs isn’t important to the valuation of stocks. It’s sucks for sure, but most of the growth in the earnings of the market , over 50%, is 5 companies, and those companies do not rely on consumer as much as you think. It’s also relatively minor when consider the hundreds of millions of employed workers in the county.
Priced in.
My neighbors made a lot of money blindly putting money into Tesla the past few years. Now they think they’re stock market gurus and the wife has quit her job to full time option trade, and the husband and son do it as well.
That makes me feel like this is definitely the final stages before a meltdown
Look at earnings growth.
Government backed market
Everyone screaming market irrational etc etc have no clue. What’s irrational about it? The fact that you didn’t buy and missed the run?
Don’t you know stocks only go up?
As long as companies keep increasing profits, that’s all the stock market cares about. You are investing in companies, not job numbers.
That’s already priced in, or expected.
How you get movements that are opposite from what you expected:
* Bad news that’s less bad than expected = green on bad news
* Good news while the market was expecting excellent news = red on good news
TL;DR: it’s all priced in, always has been
Most of the S&P500s revenue is from customers outside the US. The US economy might be wobbling, but it doesn’t mean other economies are.
You also have to think about how most people invest in the market. So much money globally is funneled into the US stock market through things like pensions, RSU/ESPP.
Ponzi
Stock market isn’t the economy. It’s public listing of businesses where people are willing to buy and sell those businesses.
The market is being extremely greedy and manipulative. There’s a lot of retail fomo right now. I imagine the drop will be devastating.
AI stocks don’t depend on consumers.
The moment nvidea posts a disappointing quarter, the house of cards will fall. Until then, the gravy train goes choo choo
Money talk, money does the walk. Capex is one hella a drug, market will pump until nvda’s earning
It’s one metric.
AI trade is moving the market with spending.
Nasdaq over 29k now!!
Iran war – nothing burger
Debt – nothing burger
Inflation – nothing burger
Buffet indicator – nothing burger
ATH – nothing burger
GDP – positive
Jobs- positive
PMI – positive
Consumer resilient! Airlines at all time highs, cruise stocks flying, Disney parks packed! Everyone who is in the market is a millionaire 10 times over!
That’s why this one metric doesn’t matter.
The labor market is definitely slowing. Jobs are being cut now and ai is being used as the cover so you aren’t really seeing much about it in the news other than panic over AI. Add in to that trump and co are releasing initially very positive numbers and then revising them down and you get basically rosy information instead of the actual negative news it might normally be. It is the same reason oil hasn’t shot up even though gas has and we haven’t seen a big impact. Trump and co are pretending the situation is close to being resolved when it isn’t and using that to steady the market.
Why would they, time to pump
did you see only semi stocks are holding up the market? today only semi stocks are up big , specifically Memory and CPU stocks. When everyone piles in on call options, the crash will come soon
Dear OP, can you elaborate?
Jobs and unemployment are relatively steady. Inflation is seen as temporary as the market sees an ending to the war.
I’ve seen euphoric rises in the market many times. Most were based in idealistic companies with no earnings and retail investors plowing money into an idea.
The question is if AI is going to take off as many predict. The biggest AI companies are making huge revenues currently, but plowing it all back into capex. It’s what Amazon did in its early years, investing for future growth.
At some point you all have to accept that stocks are no different from crypto investing. People buy them because they think they will be able to sell for a higher price in the future. That’s it.
Priced in