This may get a bit sociological, but when I’m looking at the longterm health of Meta, I wonder whether Facebook/Instagram may fall out of popularity. In discussions of Insta/FB, I see a prevailing opinion that: “they kinda suck but they’re ingrained in society forever” and I wonder whether this is actually true. Is it not entirely possible that people will increasingly recognize the negatives of posting/scrolling (thus seeing ads) and just decrease their use substantially? With increasing data that FB/Insta are not good for mental health and tend to suck valuable time, it seems like a “collective action problem” where individuals feel it would be best if everyone quit but negative consequences for early individuals quitting prior to a mass exodus. And isn’t it possible that there will eventually be a cultural zeitgeist that feels using Insta/FB is just cringe and not cool? I deactivated my accounts a few years ago while retaining Messenger (thus distant friends and family could theoretically contact me) and after a short withdrawal period I have no desire to post or scroll there again. So my question is whether Meta actually has a cultural moat for 15 more years or if it’s entirely possible that people will spend less and less time there, and what once seemed ingrained and eternal will be seen as an early 21st century fad.
Posted by MediocreDesigner88
34 Comments
It could be, yes
It could be but it’s also very possible that meta buys whatever the next fad is.
I will say that I have never put meta on the level of Google, Amazon, apple, or msft.
All things like that fade. A lot of Gen Z dont touch FB.
Meta knows this and has known it for years. Why do you think they spend millions looking for the next Facebook. Why did they change to Meta.
Theyre looking for longevity in the business for the decade or so when FB is a ghost town.
A fad is something short term, Meta’s business is definitively not short term. The last quarter had like 30%+ growth.
Will Meta eventually die? Sure. Soon? No.
I hate $META lost a good chunk of cash from them. But in order for it to be a “fad” what would people shift to and where would the instagram and fb “hype” go to?
Maybe, but then id also bet on Meta to pivot if they see it happening. They would probably be the first to know that its happening.
That said im not selling but in also not putting more in right now.
Unless META rotates into new areas, it will die a long slow death. They’ve got some cash flow to avoid this, but I dont think they will get it right.
Most poignant article I have read about META in a long time
[Meta Is Dying. It’s About Time.](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/opinion/meta-facebook-zuckerberg.html)
History says yes
The question is just going to be what does it. I’m loosely speculating that as more and more research comes out. The internet is probably the number one contributing factor, social media specifically, to social decline in society.
If we look back pre modern social media you had a lot more personal interaction. People are on the phone, they were hanging out with their friends, they were doing stuff, having more sex etc
Addiction to Instagram and Facebook and tiktok. It’s a very real thing. Depression and anxiety also seem to be at all time highs, I think there’s more than a casual link. More people than ever on ssris, also toxic drugs, lowers sex drive, hormone disruptors, very difficult to come off of. More people than ever convinced that they have mental health problems when they are on their phone all day, eating terrible food, not exercising and have no personal relationships. The obvious point here is many are creating their mental health problems.
That’s my guess anyway, it’s all this stuff
If we look back 20 years ago. We had internet forums for research. We had AOL chat rooms which interestingly enough forced you to directly correspond with another live human being. Much different than today.. I think the problems began after this era as we shifted into Myspace which led to Facebook and the downfall
The market can keep thinking Meta is a fad and dumping. I’ll continue to buy.
I’d say this 20 year era is nearing its end
This is the reason ive always stayed out of meta. Its a business in decline in my view, like fossil fuels. It may not be gone tomorrow, but I dont know what the dying is going to look like, I just know it’s going to happen and that makes me hesitant to put anything long term into it.
Hopefully not a fad or all of these chip FOMO late arrivers are going to be fucked once institutions figure out that some of the hyperscalers like META may stop buying.
What even is Facebook good for anymore, it’s a bunch of meme junk videos and pics when you scroll and nobody talks to each other or tries to make any meaningful connections.
I mean there was LiveJournal, MySpace, Flickr, AIM, ICQ, Digg, Slashdot, and probably tons of others, not to mention the ones barely alive now like Snapchat and Pinterest.
Social media is trendy. That’s always been and always will be a risk.
No way MySpace is forever. AOL rules.
20 years and 1.5 trillion dollars later “fad” might be a bit harsh.
Don’t underestimate a company with tens to hundreds of billions of dollars to pivot with. FB isn’t in vogue, and IG is losing market share to TikTok, but it’s still a revenue giant as a lot of folks 30-50 are still actively using it for business purposes (the demographic with expendable income). Winds will shift, but so too can Meta.
They’re hyper aware that they’re unpopular and losing ground. You can bet they spend many millions figuring out how to increase shareholder value lmao.
They dedicate huge amounts of money/research to engagement.
Everyone hates it, but they seemingly can’t stop.
There’s a reason for that.
If anything, they’re likely one of the few with real staying power — until users age out of it (*pass away*), as they struggle to capture the young ‘uns.
I would love to see the actual ROI from advertisers. I bet my life it’s steadily declining due to a rise in bot counts.
Meta could be a fad for other reasons: FCF going below zero to end the year.
Based on my estimates, if they grow CFO at 27% as they have the last 2 years, they would be at $147B CFO and if they spend the high end of their CapEx estimate ($145B) they would have only $2B in FCF to end the year. These are just my estinates but think about that. That alone would spook investors.
In aggregate it has 3B daily active users, and a marketing juggernaut, a duopoly with Alphabet. “Fad” is an understatement with that reach and ads market share.
98% of their revenue is ad sales. It’s a billboard that desperately wants you to think they’re not just a billboard. I haven’t opened FB in years and it’s been a massive net positive.
I guess technically it’s a fad. It’s an accessory and not part of the infrastructure.
That’s what they said 15 years ago
Time to buy!
It’s my main holding with Microsoft second. It is risky. They are great at what they do but failing to have success in new projects and to stay on top long term you need to evolve. All other companies did it
Lol, you really think social media is a fad?
I deactivated my meta accounts recently and deleted the apps off my phone and I don’t miss them at all. I think they’re losing a lot of active users lately and it’s the beginning of the end. Luckily nothing of value will be lost.
I used to doomscroll on Facebook for hours a day. Been almost 2 years since I deactivated. It’s filled to the brim with AI slop even worse than reddit.
Maybe. Everyone used MySpace and AOL instant messenger, until they didn’t.
With things moving so fast it’s hard to preserve cat but meta has held up well for 15+ years and made excellent investments with WhatsApp and instragram. I don’t think they are wrong about vr itself over the long term and there is a lot of cash. One or two lucky buyouts and you have a long run way. I wouldn’t discount meta as a company.
It’s possible. That said, META is unscrupulous, bloodthirsty, selfish, and although they straddle the fence between what’s legal and illegal, their entire ballsack is on the criminal side of enterprise. They have that evil edge. They lean into change (AI infrastructure) as much as they try to lead change, scrap what doesn’t work (Horizon), and try to bully their way into the future through acquisitions alone. Their vision is lacking. A lot of their bets have failed and are going to fail. There are two ways to contend with the future, 1. predict it, 2. invent it. They suck at both, but they’re large, not constrained by ethics, and have their fingers in a lot of pies. They’ll buy their way into the future.