Spent the last month going through every layer of the AI infrastructure stack. Power, cooling, networking, optical, memory, foundry, packaging, equipment. Roughly 30 companies. I wanted to find value somewhere in the chain… I mostly failed.
Power and cooling names like Vertiv are trading at 70x trailing earnings. Optical networking companies like Coherent, Lumentum, and Ciena are up 200-400% in 12 months with gross margins that don’t justify the multiples. Fabrinet is a great business but runs on 12% gross margins at $700 a share. Amkor looked interesting at $30 but doubled to $70 in a few weeks with insiders dumping nearly a billion dollars of stock on the way up.
The only name I can build a real value case for is TSM. 20x forward earnings on 41% revenue growth, 46% net margins, 36% ROE, and a literal monopoly on advanced chip fabrication. The business would be cheap at 25x. At 20x it feels like a gift considering every dollar of AI capex flows through their foundries regardless of who wins the chip design war.
Am I missing something? Is there a layer of the stack that hasn’t been driven up yet? Anyone finding value here or has the market priced in the entire AI buildout already?
Is there any value left in the AI supply chain?
byu/Johnny_Yukon instocks
Posted by Johnny_Yukon
3 Comments
Keep researching. Let us know when you do k?
The energy names are probably the last bit of value for anything AI related
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
Their wholly owned subsidiary PCC supplies GE Vernova with precision cast parts.
It’s never going to be a meme stock so don’t expect a 500% annual return, but they do have their hand in a lot of different sectors