Upstart is a fully automated AI company with immensely deep value and profitable revenue growth
I last made an AMD post 3 months ago before it went parabolic on ValueInvesting, highlighting that AMD has a .7 peg ratio, stating AMD was the best value and growth stock, since then AMD almost tripled from the price.
Upstart is in a similar boat to AMD was in 2024, where the company is completely discounted from relevance, and has a .21 peg ratio currently. Meanwhile Upstart has reiterated insanely bullish guidance for 35% cagr with 21% ebitda guidance for the next 3 years.
Upstart’s Market cap is currently 2.75 billion with immense room to grow. Upstart is a B2B2C, with Loan applications hitting record highs.
Their ai model fully automates 90% loans with 5x risk separation with 43% more approvals than fico. Banks are increasingly relying upon upstart as their partner to make loans safety and with higher volume.
Upstart also Applied for a bank charter which will further reduce costs and provide flexibility with \~2028 approval.
Upstart is unprecedented deep value for an AI company at just .21 peg ratio.
Long term, Upstart has legitimate 10x+ potential, and will triple – quadruple in less than 2 years from baseline execution, not to mention bank approval. The demand for an edge in lending will increase other lenders reliance on upstart.
They have 4B in committed capital recently, and a previous lender renewed and increased the amount. Former ceo retired, promoted the ml engineer founder to ceo, and just bought 5 million worth of stock last week at $31. The stocks trading at $28.7 atm. The current ceo bought 4m worth back in February at $39.31.
The AI advantages that upstart has gives it a decade lead over others. This is a future sp500 company in the making, and ceo Paul Gu has stated clearly he is looking to maximize shareholder value.
TLDR: intrinsic value is almost 3x lower than it will be in just 1.5 years. Growth is being prioritized, and the company has made it clear they’re looking to increase stock price with share buybacks as recent as $31. The shares have 33% short interest even while the company and founders keep buying back shares.
Revenue goals are to 10x, and their AI automation advantages will make Upstart highly profitable as a credit infrastructure platform.
Upstart is deep value with immense profitable revenue growth
byu/TargetBan instocks
Posted by TargetBan
2 Comments
how many % of your portfolio is in it?
We are on the exact same page haha
I made wife changing money with amd calls+leaps+shares buying last year in March 25.
I’m seeing similar setup with Upst. I don’t feel quite as certain about it but it’s the big value play I’m seeing right now for sure compared to the rest of the bat shit over priced market.
Theiir p/s is so fucking cheap. The stock is way cheaper right now then when the revenue was like 140b and rates were 3 basis point higher.
Last earnings was strong imo, buy backs, strong funding, less loans on their books which was always the biggest worry, strong revenue, and guidance maintained at 1.4b yearly revenue + positive income.
The leadership is literally the guy who put Google cloud in such a strong position, as I understand it at least And his little Asian nerd protegy. Look at all the best companies rn, Asian CEOs. I’m not being racist just saying there’s a theme Like In big short the Asian maths dude, thats what you want not some white smuck like Elon musk.
Also reddit constantly trashes Upst and makes the same joke about the admittedly hilarious “what does upst even do moment” LMAO. But people being short sighted writing it off imo. Their model works and they are super close to profitability. People here being negative about it is bullish imo considering they are all talking shit buying all the big semis and tech stocks right now at the top hahaha.
Anyway yea definitely exhibiting some similar signs to amd in terms of being undervalued, but also a totally different stock. If rates climb the thesis is kinda over, these two inflation reports are gonna be key this week…
My position is like 40k shares 20k calls btw.